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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒
@ThomasPerfumo
Chief Economist @krakenfx. 💰 Former L/S Special Sits Analyst @ Moore Capital. 📈 Amateur astronomer. 🔭 Thoughts are mine. Vires in Numeris. #Bitcoin #crypto
Earth Katılım Aralık 2017
312 Takip Edilen2.6K Takipçiler
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽
💰 $1,567 billion
𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆
💎 ₿20.021 million (95.34% of max)
𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
💸 +0.82%
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆
⛏️ +₿450 ($35.2 million)
#SoundMoneyMonday
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The best part about this poll is that it’s a gamified version of what capitalism and the US value system promise. In the pursuit of individualism, you achieve the greatest collectivist outcome.
The US is simultaneously the most selfish, rich, advanced, and generous society.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒 retweetledi
Guidance from the SEC and CFTC has moved the industry and the future of the American economy forward. The Market Structure Bill will continue that forward.
The bill is the result of sustained bipartisan negotiation, and the Senate Banking Committee has brought it further than any market structure effort before it.
It’s time to move to markup.
x.com/BlockchainAssn…
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The thin line between high trust society and third world stagnation is often explained by how people behave when basic needs are met.
“Microlooting” is one reason why SF turned into an expensive, boarded up 💩 hole with no small businesses and toothpaste behind plexiglass.
nytimes.com/2026/04/22/opi…
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒 retweetledi
Two catalysts incoming. Clarity Act. Fed leadership transition.
Both land in the next few weeks 🔥
Meanwhile: $3.5B in Bitcoin purchases last week, ETF inflows accelerating, options markets at their most bullish since January.
This week’s Macro Minute with Thomas Perfumo 👇
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Bottom line
Warsh laid the foundation for a more agile, less bureaucratic Fed — one that could move on rate cuts sooner than expected.
While this wasn't a back-the-truck moment for risk assets, I think it was a positive signal on balance.
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Forward-looking Fed
Warsh wants the Fed to act on where the economy is heading, not where it's been. Interest rate policy effects lag upwards of one year. Waiting for perfect backward-looking data means you're always late. He suggested a more aggressive, informed bet posture.
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Kevin Warsh's US Fed Chair nomination hearing wrapped a couple of hours ago.
I believe he's laying a foundation for a dovish pivot on interest rates. Below I discuss key takeaways and why this matters for risk assets like equities and crypto. 🧵
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One of the hot topics in this Senate Committee nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh is the independence of the Fed.
This concept of "Fed independence" is a political red herring. It's ridiculous to expect a President to nominate an individual who wouldn't complement their agenda.
Fed independence comes from other structural checks and balances: US Congressional confirmation, term limits that extend beyond political terms, policy by majority agreement in committee.
Ignore the noise, focus on comments on balance sheet.
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Right now the Senate Banking Committee is hosting a nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh: banking.senate.gov/hearings/04/14….
Last week we published a discussion on this important transition in US Fed leadership and details to keep an eye on. Have a read!
blog.kraken.com/news/industry-…
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𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽
💰 $1,497 billion
𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆
💎 ₿20.019 million (95.33% of max)
𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
💸 +0.82%
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆
⛏️ +₿450 ($33.6 million)
#SoundMoneyMonday
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒 retweetledi
"Leadership transition at the US Federal Reserve may be the single most important variable for risk assets in 2026, but the market is treating it as an afterthought"
Kraken Chief Economist @ThomasPerfumo breaks down near-term catalysts ahead of Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's hearings 👇
blog.kraken.com/news/industry-…
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𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽
💰 $1,419 billion
𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆
💎 ₿20.015 million (95.31% of max)
𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
💸 +0.82%
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆
⛏️ +₿450 ($31.9 million)
#SoundMoneyMonday
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Risk assets are tussling with volatile expectations in interest rate policy in the US. Over the last 24 hours CME Fed Funds Futures for the December 2026 FOMC meeting reflect a -
+ 70% chance (vs 80% previously) of unchanged rates.
+ 30% chance (vs ~15% previously) of a cut.
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I've highlighted de-escalation as a catalyst for Bitcoin performance. The last 24 show this in spades.
Bitcoin is up +4.6% over the last 24 hours, within the top-5 performance days in 2026.
The reason: interest rate expectations are leaning dovish.👇🧵
Kraken Pro@krakenpro
No rate cuts. War driving inflation. MicroStrategy just blinked for the first time since December. And yet, demand showed up in March and supply is tightening. Thomas Perfumo breaks it all down in this week's Macro Minute👇
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