Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth 🐒

@BTCtreasuries @GrafYves @chasepalmieri @quentinisonx @medc3005 @TylerCompiler Thanks for the mention, @medc3005! Hopefully we get some good news with CLARITY and the return of good vibes!

LIVE: Bitcoin Treasuries Takeover Ep. 9 📌 Saylor stacks a massive $3B cash stockpile 📌 Corporates buy 110K BTC in Q2 📌 U.S. Bitcoin Reserve stalls @GrafYves @ChasePalmieri @QuentinIsOnX @medc3005 @TylerCompiler ⚡️Watch: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Ice cold. We rise!

Adverse. Selection.

@AsadIshmael For $2,000, you too can send it down to 20%. 🙃 It’s a thin market. I often tell people they should refer to the long term trend/average than any point-in-time estimate of this market.

HUGE dip in Clarity Act odds today... for less than an hour, odds were cut in half to ~20% Who knows something?

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,264 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿20.056 million (95.50% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($28.4 million) #SoundMoneyMonday

Capital is rotating out of $BTC ETFs and into memory stocks. @ThomasPerfumo of @krakenfx tells @RemyBlaireNews the DRAM ETF attracted over $22 billion in inflows since April while Bitcoin ETFs shed $7.5 billion, and $MSTR turned into a net seller last week, yet $BTC price is holding up. "That really speaks to the emergence of a new marginal buyer."

MicroStrategy just recorded its largest Bitcoin sale ever $215M sold to fund preferred equity dividends Bitcoin barely flinched @ThomasPerfumo breaks down what happened in this week’s Macro Minute👇

Time to dust off the $STRC relationship with $BTC price with some recent data. (1) The correlation between $STRC's implied yield premium versus Bitcoin price is still very strong (-0.84x). (2) "Fair value" based on the regression is closer to ~$97 based on the current 12% coupon rate. (3) From a trading perspective, $MSTR's decision to declare dividends through August 15th (rather than through July 31st) implies any incremental upside on a potential coupon rate hike is likely 4 weeks away. My gut says July will prove fairly volatile. We have earnings season kicking off, US FOMC rate decision (27% expectation of a hike), CLARITY Act headlines, and more likely than not a depressed common equity fundraising period given where their USD reserve stands right now. I think $BTC needs to trade up to $67K to $70K on sustained optimism for $STRC to return to par absent additional interventions by $MSTR.

@DefiIgnas Are quorums just not a concept at all?

Invest in your DAO, if you have one. Only 2.9% of holders bothered to vote. Voter apathy almost rugged Compound the same way. This is why serious DAOs pay for delegate campaigns, full-time foundation people focused on governance, and incentives to participate. Apathy is partly why I played delegate myself this past year. But most DAOs are moving the other way: shutting down, or quietly centralizing. Still, a badly run DAO is worse than no DAO.

It’s an interesting thought exercise, but I think it’s better to maintain the cap. By having the 21M cap you create perfect predictability in the fundamentals such that only market price regulates distribution based on aggregate time preference of a perfectly scarce asset. If you introduce another variable, let’s say tying it to population growth, well then you have the issue of market price having to now reflect deviations between protocol design and expected fertility trends. I personally think having Bitcoin price reflect pure market signal is more a blessing than a curse.

Capping the supply of Bitcoin at 21M doesn't make sense. Beacuse over time, keys will be lost. In fact, as time goes to infinity, all keys will be lost. I strongly support a clear monetary policy with an absolute upper bound on the # of Bitcoins in the future. Say, fix a max issuance rate and you get that (a good choice is 4% a year, this is a reasonable upper bound on human population expansion). This way, you ensure there's enough to go around. And I'm not even talking about the security problem, looming large on the horizon.

This feels like one of those watershed moments for early adoption cycles.

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗽 💰 $1,254 billion 𝗖𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 💎 ₿20.053 million (95.49% of max) 𝗔𝗻𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 💸 +0.82% 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 ⛏️ +₿450 ($28.1 million) #SoundMoneyMonday

@CorySwan @TXMCtrades @duonine @_Checkmatey_ @intangiblecoins @dgt10011 TradFi market is closed. Bitcoin ETFs can’t sell.

I'm super curious what's up with the steady march up in $BTC price the past 24 hours. What do you guys see onchain, what do you see on the charts? @TXMCtrades @duonine @_Checkmatey_ @intangiblecoins @dgt10011

We need a new social contract and it begins with the billionaire tax. No longer will centimillionaires get away with not contributing their fair share. We'll levy a very reasonable 2% tax on all wealth above $50M. Our ambition doesn't stop there. Once we've run out of their money, the thousandaires are next... and soon anyone who breathes air, too!

@BTCoptioneer It’s actually a moving strike. One of the underrated concepts.

$STRK is still my favorite preferred. Pays 13%/year and has full $MSTR upside once MSTR hits $1000. Can't beat that.

@WazzCrypto Okay? So you accuse them of committing fraud because they publish a dashboard with numbers that they want to show you? Low bar, IMO.

@ThomasPerfumo they only show whatever metrics make them look good, and often use made up calculations for those metrics x.com/WazzCrypto/sta…

And they showed the lifetime yield from the IPO price of $90 per share not the actual par they advertised Because thats the only way they would get the 17% lifetime return number there 7m after launch Their "Strategy" is cooking the numbers to whatever fits their narrative

Everyone needs to relax.

“The correct question is what conditions would prevent the ability to accumulate cash to service the liabilities IF they were in a position to need it when the time comes?” It’s an easy question to answer. The problem is that most people just won’t straightforwardly admit that it amounts to a long-term short position on bitcoin:native, which historically has ripped people’s faces off.

Idk who needs to hear this but $STRC and $SATA trading below $100 doesn’t actually matter much. It’s the same product giving the same yield on the same cadence, you just get a higher effective yield because you paid less for the share It doesn’t mean the company is going to spiral out of control and die a horrible death There is this weird fixation of absolutism when people talk about BTCTCs where the state of things at any given moment is the same state they will always be in the future and that couldn’t be more wrong. It’s been proven over and over again STRC and SATA trading at $90 means with current guidance the companies won’t issue shares via ATM. That’s fine. Status quo. The model doesn’t break because of this. They want to accumulate Bitcoin but that doesn’t mean every second of the day they need to be doing so. There is no inherent structural problem if they don’t accumulate more Bitcoin for a period of time with these prefs. What is happening is a stress test of the model and proving they can easily fulfill the dividend liabilities regardless of market conditions. And for the big money from institutional allocators they care far more about that than a one month time frame at the bottom of a bear market where the market is most emotional and irrational Where does $10 Billion come from over the next two years? Wrong question. The correct question is what conditions would prevent the ability to accumulate cash to service the liabilities IF they were in a position to need it when the time comes? So far, not a single person can show the scenario where this happens. No one can show the math for how this happens. The doomer thesis is to present an unquantifiable statement as fact and as a predetermined outcome. These people are nothing but fear mongering engagement farmers. There is no substance. Strategy could sell $10 Billion of Bitcoin, clear all prefs and converts other than STRC and reset with roughly 650,000 Bitcoin. The emotional simpleton would say this was a colossal failure that a company 6 years ago who had $250 million of cash and was worth about ~$1 Billion now owns $30 Billion of Capital, has no debt, and only has a small dividend liability to pay out every two weeks. This is the roughly the worst case for the company by any objective measure. Even if Bitcoin were to drop down to the fantasy levels of $30,000 for a short time, it would become $15-$20 Billion of capital at the most distressed level ever. A monumental win. The kicker is these same people would claim you should buy this same asset as the company because they believe it’s going up forever When you have such contradictory statements and beliefs on a short term basis as these, you realize quickly who can be taken seriously and who shouldn’t. Everyone has a negative opinion at the bottoms and can never see a way out despite it always proving not to be true. You would think these people would learn by now, but it’s clear the behavioral patterns do continue All of this angst and negativity will reverse very quickly when it’s clear we’ve bottomed and people start looking forward with more optimism. They will realize nothing in fact happened and there was no real danger for the things they so prominently claimed were defacto guarantees Let’s revisit when Bitcoin is pushing $150,000 and what the viability of these companies are. You all know they will be flourishing