@mean_field_zane @iamnopilot @questionableway Sorry don't know much (or really any) game theory, a payoff can be negative yes?
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throwaway
170 posts
@throwaw58006606 @iamnopilot @questionableway Those just mean that you get a payoff from a vote regardless of who wins.
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red is an unbelievably phenomenally disgustingly selfish decision and i do not have theory of mind for anyone who would choose it
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@mean_field_zane @iamnopilot @questionableway Where can I read what those are? Or more generally the other game theory terms u used
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@mean_field_zane @iamnopilot @questionableway Have you also considered negative utility because of guilt in a blue world
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@iamnopilot @questionableway I literally have mathematically demonstrated multiple times that this is untrue. At this point, you’re being willingly obtuse or you have an inability to do mathematics.
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@throwaw58006606 @iamnopilot @questionableway In the original scenario there’s no observation of the votes.
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@mean_field_zane @iamnopilot @questionableway Why is not the original scenario? I think that's exactly what would happen, red voters would at the very least be socially ostracised in a >80% blue scenario
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@throwaw58006606 @iamnopilot @questionableway In a model with a cost to voting red when red loses, you can get blue to win. However, a scenario like that is not the original scenario.
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@Blackshirt95 @Td7653 @vers_laLune Why? The post states everyone. If you remove baby's, so you remove, say, 15 year olds? They can't vote in most countries
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@throwaw58006606 @Td7653 @vers_laLune Because I don’t consider a baby randomly hitting a button, with no comprehension of the consequences, a vote.
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at the risk of opening myself up to this bullshit question again, I need to emphasize, that only the red option guarantees everyone lives, but your moral posturing is forcing you to kill yourself
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@Nunya2161047767 @DerJbrand @sp6runderrated Because I think its possible for 90% of people to vote blue, and I do not think it's possible to get 99% to vote blue
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@throwaw58006606 @DerJbrand @sp6runderrated You didn't think that one through, huh?
You're somehow not fine with 49% of people dying but would vote to kill 89% of people.
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I 100% would vote blue. And I'm quite confident we would get the vast majority of votes.
I for one would not like to live in a world where people in surgery, babies, color blind, people with hand tremors, etc., needlessly die because they picked the wrong color.
Carl@HistoryBoomer
I think people are choosing "blue" because then they can feel noble, but in the real world, with their life on the line, they'd press red. I'd certainly press red! Just have the whole world press red, and nobody dies!
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@BlueGreenblue3 @32nd_guessing Ok sry 13 % difference. Any evidence for that?
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@throwaw58006606 @32nd_guessing Compare to the outcome of the og wording. I’d say it’s the #1 factor to people’s *first-glance* judgements
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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Amazing how lots of self appointed game theory experts confidently asserting that blue is the stupid choice. But every time this poll is run blue wins. Not only is the “game theory” answer predicting the wrong outcome, its explanatory power is based on it being able to predict the right answer. So it’s doubly wrong.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@BlueGreenblue3 @32nd_guessing Nr 1 factor? There's only a 10% difference
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@32nd_guessing The interesting thing this exposes about the scenario is that the framing of the agency in blue voters’ death is the #1 factor in peoples’ decisions and is 100% topologically meaningless to the problem
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@throwaw58006606 @peterrhague @ViktorBlaskov Really stretching pretty hard to justify not being able to read.
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@sp6runderrated Would you still vote blue if blue required 90% of votes instead of just 50%?
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@LinkofSunshine @patafianek2000 No, now it's do you save your own skin even if you contribute to the deaths of children. I bet we still have >30% red
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“Oh I pressed the kill myself button so now you also have to press the kill yourself button to save me from my decision 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺”
Just don’t press the god damn kill yourself button???
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@peterrhague @ViktorBlaskov Red is the correct answer because anyone that voted blue deserves to be culled.
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@TheKillerStove @WomanDefiner Also completely ignores the existence of infants, young children etc etc
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@WomanDefiner Okay, but all these arguments fail to consider people aren't logical. Women in particular are wired to push the button with empathetic messaging, and something like an 80/20 split favoring men post button press will mean societal collapse within a century due to the birth rate.
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Actually it looks something like this.
BM@BM3700659331555
@WomanDefiner I like how the red button people are saying pressing the blue button is just for people to virtue signal, yet red button people are doing the same but instead of morality it's about their supreme intelligence. Equally insufferable
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@Blackshirt95 @Td7653 @vers_laLune Why are you assuming that??? The question literally says everyone! If this was posed at a game theory conference, I'd pick red too!
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@Td7653 @vers_laLune Indeed, but this framing shows how needless the choice to pick blue in the first place is.
I'm assuming this is being posed to adults. Once you include children essentially picking at random the frame would change.
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