tom zzd
173 posts

tom zzd retweetledi

反弹还是反转,机构开始建仓的原因是什么?(一)
从上上周五威廉姆斯的讲话开始,投资者的情绪就开始回暖,这再次证明了美联储的货币管理是当前市场的主要叙事。接下来只要12月降息预期不被打破、点阵图不出现明显鹰化,市场就会自然维持在偏乐观的区间里。其实这也说明了在宏观不出系统性幺蛾子的前提下,投资者关注的核心已经不再是分项数据本身,而是美联储是否愿意通过引发经济下行的方式来阻碍通胀的上涨。
图1,威廉姆斯讲话带动风险市场止跌反弹
威廉姆斯的讲话之所以能立刻稳定市场,不是因为内容多么鸽派,而是发出了一个非常明确的信号,美联储已经意识到金融环境的收紧力度超出了预期,需要通过沟通来避免非必要的市场去杠杆。而在当前这个增长放缓但未衰退、通胀下行但未到底的窗口期,政策态度的变化会被市场放大为趋势性的方向指引。
因此,哪怕基本面数据依然存在噪音,只要货币政策没有偏离宽松路径,资金就会倾向于买预期、等确认、再找理由的自我麻痹。这也是最近几天风险资产能够快速修复、甚至出现主动买盘的原因,市场的交易节奏正在从避险走向等待,再从等待切换到试探性加仓。
图2,对冲基金和机构11月第三周开始布局
在周内我已经展现了很多数据来告诉大家现在的市场情况,总的来说虽然散户是最近2年美股最大的支持者,但从11月的数据来看,散户出现了投降的趋势,而在2025年一直都是做空和净流出的对冲资金则从11月开始出现了明显的资金流入,如果说散户的流出可能是因为到来的感恩节和黑五,那么机构的抄底可能就是对于周期性底部行情的判断。
为什么我会这么说?
图3,2022年加息周期开始,只有散户一直买入。
因为从2022年开始是美联储新一轮的货币政策周期,也就是从2022年开始美联储开始了高利率降低通胀的策略,而高利率往往带来的就是流动性的下降,所以我的判断是机构和对冲基金不愿意在高利率的时期内加大对风险市场的投资,反而选择了避险为主,因此可以看到从2022到2024这三年,专业资金几乎都是净流出,哪怕市场有反弹,它们也只是逢高减仓,始终不愿意在流动性紧缩的背景下承受更高的风险敞口。
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@milkblue1 @MARYWON86800702 @RichardZi2 @Jkjjby @yonc58175 @chnzhohng141823 @cryptofooder @DavidWatsons2 Still 71k Ausd inside on avalanche C curated by RE7
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立正挨打,第一次买入。第二次买入放在跌破90,000美元,继续跌就继续买。

Phyrex@PhyrexNi
对于行情我自己还是坚持已经制定的方案,逢低买入。最近两个月一直在做资金储备,就是为了在行情低迷的时候买入。近期的收益都会变成 U 本位,然后逢低买入 $BTC 为主。定投继续。
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@eulerfinance I have deposit 48k usdt, but cann't withdraw now, I alse cannot join your discrod. Could you refund my money.
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@euler_mab I have deposit 130k usdt, but cann't withdraw now, I cannot join your discrod. Could you refund my money.
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Striking a balance is always tough. In credit markets there will always be different preferences for risk, reward, assets, rates, duration, collateral exposure, LTVs, oracle choices, and more.
Different markets on Euler are isolated by design. The majority remain unaffected by the recent insolvency announcement from Stream, including DAO-curated markets such as Euler Prime and Euler Yield.
If DeFi is to form the foundation of the future of finance, it needs modular credit-market infrastructure that allows people to express diverse views on risk and return.
The Euler protocol provides non-custodial, permissionless infrastructure where independent curators can do exactly that, creating risk-isolated markets tailored to different user demands.
Even in a simple collateral–debt pair, small parameter changes can shift risk and reward outcomes significantly. There are only trade-offs in building a market.
Modular systems don’t promise to prevent risks, but they do help contain them.
letsgetonchain@letsgetonchain
I see platforms like euler or morpho as infra providers who use their own infra. But they should not have their brand's risk management be associated to other risk management practices. thoughts @euler_mab?
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tom zzd retweetledi

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tom zzd retweetledi

The #Tezuka Universe #Web3 Illustration Contest is now open for creator submissions! 🎉
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tom zzd retweetledi

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tom zzd retweetledi

The story of One Gravity - the journey to Defy Gravity 🛸. 🧵👇
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tom zzd retweetledi
tom zzd retweetledi

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