Tim Minto

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Tim Minto

Tim Minto

@tim_minto

Now: learning Norwegian, Spanish, and how to be quasi-retired. Then: Smallworld GIS, Team Canada underwater hockey, Tetlockian superforecaster.

Vancouver, British Columbia Katılım Mart 2015
444 Takip Edilen739 Takipçiler
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
I think at this point, the right thing for the world to do is to start the process of disconnecting from the USA. It sucks, and it is a long process - but until/unless US congress acts to reduce executive power, it's not obvious that this is just a 4 year long problem.
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
official denial of export ban plans from US Energy Secretary Wright but still not seeing refined products mentioned and my charitable trust is in short supply right now
GIF
Secretary Chris Wright@SecretaryWright

Thanks to @POTUS, the United States is the world’s top oil and natural gas producer. We are also the largest natural gas exporter and a top oil exporter. To be clear, the Trump administration has no plan to implement restrictions on oil and gas exports.

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Tim Minto retweetledi
Mac William Bishop
Mac William Bishop@MacWBishop·
Not even gonna comment on the irony of citing as a parallel an event that was operationally a tactical success, but was ultimately a strategic failure — and which resulted in the downfall of an empire.
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
I see a lot of commentators saying that courts should be "deferential" to the president w.r.t. to s. 122 findings. My simple question is: why? The WH has acted in bad faith repeatedly on trade matters. Why give them the benefit of the doubt? @scottlincicome ? @FreeTradeBryan ?
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Nate Silver
Nate Silver@NateSilver538·
"You can just do things" is basically the same heuristic as "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" except for people who haven't been punched in the face yet.
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@ryancbriggs @itaisher It has been a few years since I earned the superforecaster title - and approximately all of our evaluation was on questions with a less than 1 year time frame, so take with a grain of salt - but I'll take the flip side of every "AI replaces" call here.
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Ryan Briggs
Ryan Briggs@ryancbriggs·
@itaisher I don’t get the scare quotes, he literally is. His forecasting track record is among the best in the world.
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Itai Sher
Itai Sher@itaisher·
“Superforecaster”
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀@peterwildeford

@eli_lifland I think AGI by end of 2027 should be ~8% now I think I'd forecast: ~2026-2030 -- AI replaces ~all AI researchers ~2027-2033 -- AI replaces ~all white collar industry ~2032-2040 -- AI replaces ~all human industry ~2033-2042 -- All humans dead or obsolete

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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@jmhorp And a higher percentage of Norwegians than Americans are fluent in English.
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
You can tell that my em dashes are the hand-crafted artisanal variety because they are bracketed with hand-crafted artisanal spaces.
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@alex_durante_ Does this mean that, for example, a 6 dollar tariff causes the consumer price to increase by 6 dollars, and also causes a 4 dollar inefficiency cost to the producer?
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Alex Durante
Alex Durante@alex_durante_·
Note that in their paper the aggregate welfare loss is still negative, and likely an undercount bc the authors only calculate first order approximation, rather than the full deadweight loss
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Alex Durante
Alex Durante@alex_durante_·
Important new paper which finds that tariff pass-through to the importer may be closer to 60 percent, contrary to other papers finding full pass through. The key mechanism is this (thread): nber.org/papers/w34901
Alex Durante tweet media
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@EsotericCD I think if you're going to make fun of people mixing them up, you should do a spell check first, just in case you spelled one of them wrong.
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Jeff Blehar is *BOX OFFICE POISON*
Jeff Blehar is *BOX OFFICE POISON*@EsotericCD·
Feel like there are a lot more people casually confusing Khomeini and Khameini today than on most days.
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@Birdyword When you hear "the die is cast", do you think that things are now immutable and the outcome is assured, or that a random event has been set in motion and the outcome is now up to chance?
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Mike Bird
Mike Bird@Birdyword·
If someone says "it's all downhill from here" I would interpret that as a good thing (some people don't), whereas if someone says something has "gone downhill" that's unambiguously bad
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Mike Bird
Mike Bird@Birdyword·
The fact that "going downhill" has two completely opposite meanings and depends entirely on context is very funny.
Mike Bird tweet mediaMike Bird tweet media
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
Horseback riding for the first time in Buenos Aires! Me and my new best friend Arandu.
Tim Minto tweet mediaTim Minto tweet media
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
I was talking with Melanie last night about the time a few years ago that we went to see the play Gaslight ... and she didn't recall it at all ... which made for a rather strange conversation where I tried (unsuccessfully I think) to persuade her that we did in fact see it!
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@cselley 85% uptick in Tim Hortons commercials.
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@albrgr >4% looks like a reasonable top bucket to me; getting over a sustained 4% is appropriately described as a "phase change" in my opinion. (I assume this is for USA, since "American history" is referenced in one cell in the poll).
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@shashj No, that's hype. I surpassed the weighted median superforecaster score for 140+ questions spanning a full year of the experiment, and in no way can I "defensibly claim to be superhuman at prediction".
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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
@conorsen If "no [zero] impact on profits" is strictly true, then I agree, because there's value in showing that you want to keep employees on. But the actual thing is more likely "give up X% of additional profits, and it's an interesting question what the threshold for X is.
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
It’s a good sci-fi read. One thought experiment is that if Jamie Dimon could push an AI button and fire half his company with no impact on profits would he do it? Because to me the answer is clearly no, he’s smarter than that. And he’s not alone.
Citrini@citrini

JUNE 2028. The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation. What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

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Tim Minto
Tim Minto@tim_minto·
I once did a code review for a guy who couldn't get a session to end (due to a hung thread somewhere), couldn't find the root cause, and he "resolved" it by doing another weird thread thing that caused the app to crash. That got bracketed with this sort of comment times 10.
ish.exe@ishtwts

What's the best thing you have found in code?

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Keşfet

@Rory_Johnston @scottlincicome @FreeTradeBryan @Britannica @ryancbriggs @itaisher @jmhorp @alex_durante_