We firmly believe there are ongoing US-Iran "peace deal" talks right now: Why? Because we have seen this EXACT sequence of events MULTIPLE times in previous deals negotiated by President Trump. In fact, the May 2025 China trade deal followed the exact same timeline. On April 24th, 2025, just 15 days after the "90-day tariff pause," which also came as the 10Y Note Yield soared above 4.45%, President Trump made similar claims about China, and China responded like Iran just did. Trump said China was interested in a "trade deal" with the US, and China responded stating that "there are absolutely no negotiations between the US and China." Just 3 weeks later, on May 12th, 2025, the US and China announced their first trade deal, reducing tariffs to a 30% baseline. We believe a similar situation is happening right now with Iran, behind closed doors. As Iran's war strategy has become to play the “long game” and pressure the US/Israel through capital and energy markets, Iran does not want to lose leverage and allow markets to normalize until a definitive deal has been solidified. This is the same exact form of leverage that China had in April 2025 negotiations, which they initially denied, as the 10Y Note Yield broke above 4.50% and US equity markets collapsed. We believe Trump is following the same playbook now. That said, volatility will persist until there is a clear agreement in place, and broader market normalization after this historic shock will take months. Pattern-based trading has become incredibly profitable over the last 12 months, and we continue to update our models as a result. Bookmark this post. Keep following the patterns.
