车干

再读斯蒂芬·米兰：《重构全球贸易体系用户指南》，基本理解了特朗普政策的方向和策略，这根本不是表面看的贸易战，这是一场全球贸易体系重塑。这是继1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解，1985年广场协议后，最重大的全球变革！ 今天我还在为1万亿美国军费提升纳闷，原来这是其中一步棋，最终为了达成“海湖庄园协议”。作为‘重塑全球贸易体系’的重要战略，这份米兰的报告十分详细的拆解了战术玩法。 三步走方案： 1️⃣关税：这是米兰报告中最重要的工具，可以用来增加财政收入、保护国内产业、并作为与其他国家谈判的筹码。 2️⃣汇率政策：寻求让美元贬值，以提高美国产品的出口竞争力。这可以通过多种方式实现，包括与其他国家达成协议(海湖庄园协议)，或者单方面采取行动(利用IEEPA打击美元储备积累，直接干预汇率市场)。 3️⃣安全工具：享受美国安全保护的国家，要求购买并长期持有美国国债(比如百年期国债)，以此来支持美元，并帮助美国降低融资成本，特朗普政府通过将“安全保障”与贸易、金融挂钩，迫使其他国家做出让步，确保汇率政策工具的有效实施，重构对美国有利的全球贸易和金融体系。 目标：让美元贬值，提高美国制造业竞争力(为了防止金融动荡加剧，6月30日的CME推出的 Spot-Quoted Futures，通过算法控制金融市场，也就顺理成章)。

I watched the entire press conference with Zelensky. There was 40 minutes of discussion up to the argument. Most people saw at most the last ten minutes. The whole video gives the proper context. When I first watched the argument without the proper context, I thought it was possible that Trump and Vance ambushed Zelensky or were even trying to humiliate him. That's not what happened. You had 40 minutes of calm conversation. Vance made a point that didn't attack Zelensky and wasn't even addressed to him, and Zelensky clearly started the argument. In the first 40 minutes, Zelensky kept trying to go beyond what was negotiated in the deal. When Trump was asked a question, it was always "we'll see." Zelensky made blanket assertions that there would be no negotiating with Putin, and that Russia would pay for the war. When Trump said that it was a tragedy that people on both sides were dying, Zelensky interjected that the Russians were the invaders. For his part, Trump made clear that the US would continue delivering military aid. All Zelensky had to do was remain calm for a few more minutes and they would've signed a deal. The argument started when Trump pointed out that it would be hard to make a deal if you talk about Putin the way Zelensky does. Vance interjects to make the reasonable point that Biden called Putin names and that didn't get us anywhere. The Zelensky/Trump dynamic was calm and stable. It was when Vance spoke that Zelensky started to interrogate him. Throughout the press conference to that point, everyone was making their arguments directly to the audience. Zelensky decided to challenge Vance and ask him hostile questions. He went back to his point that Putin never sticks to ceasefires, once again implying that negotiations are pointless. Why on earth would you do this? Then came the fight we all saw. Zelensky was minutes away from being home free, and he would have had the deal and new commitments from the Trump administration. The point Vance made was directed against Biden and the media, taking them to task for speaking in moralistic terms. This offended Zelensky, and that began the argument. I've been a fan of Zelensky up to this point, but this showed so much incompetence, if not emotional instability, that I don't see how he recovers from this. The relationship with the administration is broken. Ukraine should probably go with new leadership at this point.