Tom Dale

Thread with more details in QT, link in next post.

A MUST read: Gen. McChrystal on Iran: “I think we again fell for the seduction that if we bomb key targets,we will produce the outcome we want,but the outcome’s in the minds of the people.”He says Mr Pahlavi is not a “legitimate alternative”@DavidAFrench nytimes.com/2026/03/23/opi…

I was just there with another reporter for two days. I speak Persian so spoke to people directly, not through an interpreter. This is not what I found at all. I found a wide variety of opinions, including those who are supportive of the war, and those who oppose it and those who are ambivalent. There were also people who were pro-regime. There was no overwhelming sentiment in favor of the conflict.

Awful, heartbreaking, unacceptable We’ve just been at the funeral of two young volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon - killed in a direct Israeli strike… one was only 16 years old They were killed whilst wearing their full kit according to witnesses - returning from the scene of an earlier strike The deliberate targeting of healthcare workers is a war crime but Israel has killed dozens here in recent weeks (and many more in 2024 and in Gaza)

India has bought ~60 million barrels of Russian oil in March, and already booked a similar amount for delivery in April. The purchases are at a premium of $5-$15 a barrel **above** the Brent benchmark. And current prices, that’s worth >$6.5 billion for each month. Putin wins.

💥Now in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Silwan: 11 Palestinian families are being evicted for the benefit of the foreign-funded extremist settler group Ateret Cohanim. Yesterday, 4 more were evicted. @NirHasson

According to RUSI it will cost $50 billion to replace the munitions used by Israel and the US in the first 16 days of the war rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Jaw-dropping: The U.S. and Ecuador said they had cooperated to blow up a cocaine trafficking operation. Our reporters visited and found it was just a dairy farm, whose residents were brutalized by Ecuadorian soldiers acting on Pentagon intelligence. nytimes.com/2026/03/24/wor…

This is objectively extraordinary: x.com/clashreport/st… Jake Sullivan, one of the most senior former U.S. officials, says that the U.S. is in a war aimed solely at destroying Iran, one of humanity's oldest civilizations, against the U.S.'s own interests, at the behest of Israel, a 76-year-old state. Listen to the video: he says that Israel's objective in the war "is just break Iran -cause chaos," basically destroy the country, "because as far as they’re concerned, a broken Iran is less of a threat to Israel." Which he says is not in the US's interests "because a broken Iran means a broken global economy, as they continue to threaten the Straits of Hormuz. It means a potential refugee flow, like we saw after the war in Syria into Europe." He also says the Trump administration cannot answer what their own objective is in the war "because they don't know why they're there in the first place," implying that they're there mainly at the behest of Israel (otherwise they'd be able to articulate at least one reason). The curse of the "former official" strikes again... This is the same Jake Sullivan who, as National Security Advisor, oversaw the unconditional U.S. support for Israel's destruction of Gaza. Apparently breaking a people at the behest of Israel is only bad when a different administration does it...

Once again confirming that Iran has not stretched a giant net across the Strait of Hormuz.

The idea of Israel as an eternal victim-in-waiting is what makes possible its reality as an aggressor-in-actuality.

Judge rules that 17-year-old Walid Ahmad likely starved to death in Israeli military detention, but closes the case anyway. Israel never charged him with a crime and still holds his body. Here’s how he died, as reported by his cellmate, 16-year-old American Mohammed Ibrahim:

Explicitly sectarian U.S. policy in Lebanon: In March 20 remarks after meeting Maronite patriarch at Bkerki, Amb. Michel Issa said U.S. had interceded with Israel and secured commitment Israelis would spare Christian towns in south Lebanon: youtube.com/watch?v=N0TlcO…

Iran has established four main demands from the U.S. in any negotiations -Reuters - guarantees against future military action - compensation for wartime losses - formal control of the Strait of Hormuz - No limitations to its ballistic missile program

“The majority of young Israelis…haven’t read or even heard of the only canonical Hebrew literary work that portrays the reality of the state’s establishment.” —@NathanThrall go.nybooks.com/4brgrPs

💥More than 20 attacks of Jewish terror took place in a single night this week. These are the hordes– not a handful, not teenagers– invading the Palestinian West Bank village of Jalud, near Nablus. This is a massive, state-linked campaign of dispossession.

Israel wants to cut-off Lebanese communities south of the Litani River and suggested a similar strategy to Gaza. Israel’s defense Minister, Israel Katz, ‘ordered the acceleration of the demolition of Lebanese houses in the border villages in order to thwart threats to Israeli communities - in accordance with the Beit Hanoun and Rafah models in Gaza’ 🧵

I'm told that the IC has assessed that the reservists killed in Kuwait a few weeks ago were targeted using adtech, and that the Iranians used it to trace their movements to the port. nbcnews.com/news/military/…

Regarding Ghalibaf - It would not be accurate to call him a reformist, using the word to mean the movement started by Khatami and represented by figures like Pezeshkian today. He also isn't really hardcore ideological super hardliner. His biggest political rivals in recent years have been people trying to outflank him on the right for not being ideological enough - particularly (though not limited to) the Paydari movement. In the past two years he's made a sort of alliance with President Pezeshkian & managed to get his entire cabinet approved by Majles, which was unexpected. Though in return in got a lot of his own allies in minister positions, including the powerful Minister of Interior. He also helped Pezeshkian stop several draconian hejab bills from passing despite vocal Paydari complaints. The support hasn't been unlimited. He still allowed (or perhaps was not able to stop) several of Pezeshkian's ministers from getting impeached. Most notably Abdolnasser Hemmati. Ghalibaf has a impeccable military credentials. He's very much an IRGC insider & part of a generation of young Sepahis who rose to prominence in the Iran-Iraq War & then rose up in ranks in the 90s & 00s. He was known to be close to General Ghassem Soleymani (something he made sure everyone on earth knew during his different electoral campaigns). He is quite a competent manager and very ambitious. During the years he was mayor of Tehran I saw lots of development and change in the city and there's no doubt he deserves some credit for it. On the other hand, he's also had lots of allegations of cronyism and financial corruption around him. As well as allegations of suppressing intellectuals & students during his police career that have haunted him later when he's run for national office. These aren't unique to him, but are notable. Allegations about his family spending unbelievable amounts of money during a trip to Turkey severely hurt his 2024 electoral campaign, painting him as an out of touch elite figure. It was widely assumed that if he made it to the second round in a head to head against Pezeshkian he would have won. Ghalibaf very much falls within the archtype of a strongman ex-military political figure that gets things done. This is a common archtype in Iranian history (and in the wider world). He's not super ideological and has shifted around a lot in the past 30 years (though generally staying on the right of the Islamic Republic spectrum). Within foreign policy he usually advocates for a 'strong Iran', but hasn't been diametrically opposed to any negotiations or concessions in the same way Paydari has been. But he's also not as open to it as Pezeshkian or Rouhani were. All in all, he's one of the strongest and most experienced managers within the Islamic Republic's current elites. And because of his background he has the potential of bringing together a lot of the IRGC, but doesn't have the sort of backlash someone like Saeed Jalili does. But, the idea that he'd be open to giant concessions to the US is quite difficult to believe. There is a pretty widespread consensus among all the Islamic Republic's elites right now that: - The current strategy of the war is correct and they are quite likely to survive this war if they follow it - A premature ceasefire, or one that does not meet certain conditions, would be a grave mistake. The prospect of ending the war early and facing this entire thing again in 6 months again is far more dangerous than whatever damage Iran faces from the war currently (which is immense). - They made a mistake in the past 6 years of acting with too much restraint. The enemy took this as weakness. They should not hesitate to escalate to extreme levels and inflict real pain on the global economy if needed. Comparing the current war with the previous rounds of conflict shows this has paid off. - The previous ceasefire was followed by the reimposition of UN sanctions and did not lead to long term deterrence. Instead it was just a breather for Israel to replenish its interceptors. - The Trump administration is not rational and does not genuinely seek peace. The only way to achieve a sustainable peace with them is to inflict massive pain so they regret their decision and will not think about it again. It is unclear if we are at this point yet. - As such, while they do eventually seek a negotiated end to the conflict, they are extremely suspicious of Trump now. And are unlikely to accept a basic ceasefire like last time, let alone some of the conditions claimed to be brought forth by Trump. They might show some flexibility on the Iranian conditions publicly stated (these are starting points, not inflexible), but ultimately would not currently agree to something that doesn't have more clear long term durability & sanctions relief.