Lez
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1 numbers hide a surprise!
1 Winners picked will be picked randomly in 24 hours.
Comment your pick 👇🏆
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My take on the JSE market right now
The JSE has had a stellar 2025 so far with the JSE All Share Index rising +24.50% so far yet South Africa's economy and operating environment remains a challenge. What has driven these gains and where do I see opportunity?
The top 10 constituents of the All Share Index make up 50% of the index namely:
Naspers – 12.06%
Gold Fields – 6.71%
Firstrand Limited – 4.97%
AngloGold Ashanti Plc – 4.58%
Standard Bank Group – 4.29%
Prosus – 4.03%
Capitec Bank Hldgs Ltd – 4.03%
MTN Group – 3.55%
British American Tobacco PLC – 2.70%
Anglo American – 2.30%
Out of these 10 stocks - 2 have risen +160% YTD (Gold Fields & AngloGold) and 4 have risen +40% YTD (Naspers, Prosus, MTN, British American)
This clearly indicates to us that the majority of the return on the JSE this year has been concentrated to 6 shares and none of these 6 operate primarily in South Africa
How have different sectors performed?
JSE Industrial 25 has risen +18% but again Naspers, Prosus, MTN and British American are the largest contributors to the index.
JSE Resources 10 has had a outperforming year gaining +93% YTD as gold and platinum has rallied pushing some miners to triple digit returns.
JSE Financial 15 has been a major underperformer only gaining +5% YTD reflecting the challenging operating environment.
Small Caps have only returned +7% YTD gains also reflecting the weak growth in the South African economy.
SA INC
SA Inc stocks such as retailers and banks have struggled as South Africa’s weak economic backdrop weighed on earnings. High interest rates and sluggish GDP growth dampened consumer spending. For banks, muted loan growth and rising credit impairments reflected households under pressure, while retailers faced softer demand and tighter margins as cost inflation remained sticky. Unlike resource and rand-hedge companies benefiting from global factors, SA Inc remained closely tied to domestic headwinds, leaving the sector underperforming.
YTD Returns of some major SA INC companies:
Shoprite -2.72%
FirstRand +4.80%
Clicks -4.20%
Nedbank -22%
Spar -30%
Truworths -42%
Mr Price -28%
Pepkor -13%
Sanlam -1%
What could turn the tide?
Lower interest rates and inflation cooling: If inflation continues to moderate and the SARB starts cutting rates, households will get breathing room and consumer spending will pick up.
Eskom and Transnet: A more reliable power supply would reduce costs and improve productivity for retailers, manufacturers, and small caps. Fixing rail and port bottlenecks could add tens of billions of rand in export revenue annually
Political Stability & Governance: A cooperative, reform focused coalition government could boost business and consumer confidence.
Where do I see opportunity?
Overall the performance of the JSE has been concentrated to a few companies operating mainly outside South Africa as well as resource stocks. I personally am not so positive on the near term outlook for SA Inc and think the current trend of resources and rand hedge companies will be carried higher.
That being said I would rather look to be a buyer of SA Inc and other quality, strong companies that have been struggling rather than resources and other top performers as many of these companies valuations are stretched and positive feedback trading is pushing them higher. In the longer term, SA INC suchs as banks, retailers and small caps are trading at low multiples and do offer value. We expect to see interest rate cuts come from the U.S and the SARB in coming meeting which is positive for the Rand and consumer, and would boost local equities.
Shoprite, Pepkor, Purple Group and FirstRand are a few companies I like right now.
RT and Share For More
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One of the Tradelo Traders created the Economic Data Matrix given the Feds Data Dependent stance. A really strong way to visualize the slow down in the US economy over the past 4 months.
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AI circle of money ::
1. $NVDA sells GPUs to $ORCL .. Oracle uses to power its data centers
2. Oracle builds cloud on those GPUs
3. Nvidia rents compute back via signed deals from Oracle
Nvidia gets recurring revenue from hardware sales and cloud services without owning all the data centers. Oracle turns capex (buying GPUs) into opex revenue by renting compute to Nvidia, OpenAI, and others.
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🚨 Tomorrow's job revisions could change everything.
Goldman expects 550k to 950k jobs erased, the biggest cut in 15 years.
Here’s why this matters more than you think.
(a thread)
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JUST IN: Apple $AAPL reportedly considering powering new version of Siri using Anthropic or OpenAI - Bloomberg.
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My recent thoughts on Bitcoin, MicroStrategy, and the crypto industry in the aftermath of the sweeping Trump/Vance victory on Nov 5: the drivers behind the Crypto Renaissance, a Digital Assets Framework, and the geopolitical logic of the Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve.
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You will continue to FAIL challenges if you don't start controlling your risk.
Here is the risk strategy you need to start getting payouts.
Like + Comment "RISK" and I'll send over the strategy.
(Must be following, otherwise I cannot DM you)
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$FELON @convictedfel0n
If you think the 'Dirty Democrats' will keep pushing their 'convicted felon' agenda, drop your SOL address below and you could have a retirement bag in a couple hours!!
[LIVE IN 15 youtube.com/live/JlmMZ4uKF… ]
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