Trita Parsi@tparsi
Speaking to several people involved on all sides, I believe I have gotten to the bottom of the story about Pezeshkian's video message - and how Trump blew up a golden opportunity to de-escalate the war.
Here's what happened:
Regional efforts at de-escalation in the war had convinced Iran to gradually adjust its regional retaliation conduct.
In a first step, the Iranian President, as head of the interim leadership council, announced that attacks on neighboring countries would cease as long as their territories wouldn't be used to attack Iran. This is why Pezeshkian issued that video statement (although he went further in his statement, but that's another matter).
Regional states were then expected to respond in kind. This would, understandably, take a few hours, as they were monitoring whether Iran's attacks were being reduced.
But before they could reciprocate the reconciliatory tone and take regional de-escalation to the next level, Trump issued his Truth Social post that declared victory, insulted and humiliated Iran, and even issued further threats of “complete destruction and certain death“.
To make matters worse, the US also crossed another red line shortly thereafter by attacking the water desalination plant at Qeshm Island. (This is incidentally a war crime according to Article 54 of the First Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions)
Trump's actions deliberately or inadvertently sabotaged the sensitive de-escalation talks in the region, which is why there was also an uptick by prominent GCC accounts blaming Trump for the war.
Had Trump not done this, chances are that, at a minimum, the regional widening of this war would have been halted and reversed.
With last night’s attacks by Israel on Iran‘s oil infrastructure, we can only assume how Iran may retaliate.
We’ve entered a new phase of this high-intensity war.