Sabitlenmiş Tweet
I’m a contrarian, so often I see the world differently than traditional investors.
I’ll put my Board member hat on here and think like the Chair of a Strategic Transactions Committee.
🧵 👇
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪
15.6K posts
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪
@trmcdonald
Comments on markets, economics, politics & technology. Father x 5. Christian. Seeker of the Truth. Comments reflect personal views.
New York, USA Katılım Eylül 2008
2.2K Takip Edilen3.3K Takipçiler
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: “I believe that there's a reason we went to war. And I believe at the end of the war, the Middle East will be more stable than before.”
English
“If your $500K engineer isn’t burning at least $250K in tokens, something is wrong.”
Breathtaking observation
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod
🚨MAJOR INTERVIEW: Jensen Huang joins the Besties! The @nvidia CEO joins to discuss: -- Nvidia's future, roadmap to $1T revenue -- Physical AI's $50T market -- Rise of the agent, OpenClaw's inflection moment -- Inference explosion, Groq deal -- AI PR Crisis, Anthropic's comms mistakes -- Token allocation for employees ++ much more! (0:00) Jensen Huang joins the show! (0:26) Acquiring Groq and the inference explosion (8:53) Decision making at the world's most valuable company (10:47) Physical AI's $50T market, OpenClaw's future, the new operating system for modern AI computing (16:38) AI's PR crisis, refuting doomer narratives, Anthropic's comms mistakes (20:48) Revenue capacity, token allocation for employees, Karpathy's autoresearch, agentic future (30:50) Open source, global diffusion, Iran/Taiwan supply chain impact (39:45) Self-driving platform, facing competition from active customers, responding to growth slowdown predictions (47:32) Datacenters in space, AI healthcare, Robotics (56:10) OpenAI/Anthropic revenue potential, how to build an AI moat (59:04) Advice to young people on excelling in the AI era
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
gpt-5.4 has ramped faster than any other model we've launched in the API: within a week of launch, 5T tokens per day, handling more volume than our entire API one year ago, and reaching an annualized run rate of $1B in net-new revenue.
it's a good model, try it out!
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
AI is deeply unpopular. According to Pew, sadly only 17% of Americans think AI will have a positive impact. In China, 83% believe AI will be positive. A token tax & political backlash is coming unless the narrative changes. 🇺🇸👀🧐
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
This news came out a little earlier than we planned; we're excited to be building a deployment arm and will share more details soon.
Companies have a ton of urgency to deploy AI in their organizations and we’re sprinting to meet that demand. More than 1 million businesses run on OpenAI products. Codex is now at 2M+ weekly active users, up nearly 4x since the start of the year. API usage jumped 20% in the week after GPT-5.4 launched. And Frontier, which launched last month to help enterprises build, deploy, and manage AI coworkers that can do real work, has way more demand than we can handle.
That's why we launched Frontier Alliances so we leverage our ecosystem of partners to scale. And that is also why we are launching a dedicated deployment arm tasked with embedding Forward Deployed Engineers deeply inside of enterprises. This project has been in the works with our investor and alliance partners since last December, and we are grateful for them and their partnership.
We’re still early, but the speed of adoption is a clear signal of where this is headed. We're excited to not just be building these technologies but also building many ways for companies to deploy them and get impact.
reuters.com/business/opena…
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
In 2009, Tim Tebow wrote “John 3:16” under his eyes during the National Championship Game. 94 million people searched the verse that night.
Exactly three years later to the day, Tebow played his first NFL playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
He threw for 316 yards. His yards per completion were 31.6. The TV rating peaked at 31.6. The opponent’s time of possession was 31:06. The only interception in the game was thrown on 3rd and 16. The game was played exactly 316 weeks after Tebow declared he would play college football for the University of Florida.
Six different statistics. All pointing to the same verse. On the same date. Three years apart.
Nobody planned this. Nobody could have.
“For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.” John 3:16
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
UNSHAKEN FAITH: Former U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse says he's at peace with his terminal cancer diagnosis.
"We felt amazingly blessed that Melissa, my wife, and I immediately were at peace about all this," he said. "But because one of our three kids is still at home — our girls are 24 and 22, and my son's 14 — you felt like you had an obligation to try to fight a little bit."
"The foolishness of our works are pretty apparent to you when you try to really look at the accounting of a life," Sasse says. "Jesus did everything on the cross to fulfill the whole law. I fulfilled none of it. He fulfilled all of it."
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
This is the smartest counter I’ve seen to ai taking over jobs, in the short term.
Is the ((aggregate tokens cost to do what an employee does + plus fully encumbered developer and maintenance costs ) / (fully encumbered employee cost ) )<= productivity ?
If it takes 8 Claude agents, at $300 for tokens, per day, plus $200 per day in dev/maint , to do what an employee does per day, at a fully encumbered cost of $1200.
That’s 2600/1200. But then you need to factor in the productivity rate.
Is it more than 2.16 x productive ? Are there qualitative issues like morale, morality, whatever , that can’t be quantified, that need to go into the decision?
What is the going forward progression of burdened costs for the tokens ?
Curious what people think about this ?
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod
What Happens When AI Tokens Cost More Than Your Employees? @Jason: “We, with our agents, hit $300/day per agent using the Claude API, like instantly. And that was doing, maybe, 10 or 20%. That's $100k/year per agent.” @chamath: “We're getting to a place where we have to basically now say, ‘What is the token budget that we're willing to give our best devs?’” “And then if you aggregate it across all people, you can clearly see a trend where you're like, ‘Well, hold on a second, now they need to be at least 2x as productive as another employee.’” “That is actively happening inside my business, because otherwise I'll run out of money.” Jason: “Yeah. This is a very interesting trend that you're not going to hear anybody else talk about, but when do tokens outpace the salary of the employee?” “Because you're about to hit it. I'm about to hit it.”
English
“Anxiety weighs down the heart, but a kind word cheers it up.”
Proverbs 12:25 NIV bible.com/bible/111/pro.…
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
The FCC welcomes and now seeks comment on the SpaceX application for Orbital Data Centers.
The proposed system would serve as a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization and serve other purposes, according to the applicant.
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
$SATS
It seems this is still going under the radar as far as implications for #echostar.
Bloomberg@business
SpaceX has lined up four banks to lead its initial public offering, according to the Financial Times, as Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite firm moves forward with plans for the biggest-ever listing bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
Helpful update for students, you can now take full practice SATs for free in the @GeminiApp.
It uses vetted content from @ThePrincetonRev and gives you feedback straight away. Starting with the SAT today, but more tests are on the way!
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
Scott Adams has passed away after a long battle with prostate cancer.
Shortly before he passed, Adams announced he was giving his life to Christ and converting to Christianity.
Rest in Peace, @ScottAdamsSays. You will be missed.
English
Getting the job done @BrendanCarrFCC 💪 🇺🇸
Brendan Carr@BrendanCarrFCC
President Trump is restoring America’s technology leadership. NEW today, the FCC authorized SpaceX to deploy & operate up to 15,000 next-gen satellites — enabling even better, faster, and more advanced Internet services in the country. 🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸🚀🇺🇸🚀
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
“The most important resolution you can make as another year approaches is this: to open your heart and life to Jesus Christ, and commit your life to Him. Don’t waste your time on resolutions that don’t ultimately matter; resolve instead to live for Christ.” —Billy Graham
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
Imagine how motivated you’d be if your New Year’s resolution came with a speech like that. From Season 5, Episode Eight.
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
What if I told you our national debt is the tab for the mass looting of the American economy and the mass theft of the American dream?
English
@elonmusk Massive opportunity for @antifraudco and the team that can scale an ai-enabled detection and reporting platform
Multiple shots on goal will be key
🇺🇸 💪
English
My lower bound guess for how much fraud there is nationally is ~20% of the Federal budget, which would mean $1.5 trillion per year. Probably much higher.
Scott Adams@ScottAdamsSays
I'm starting to detect a pattern.
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
.@chamath, I’m building @AntifraudCo, a startup that files qui tams against fraudsters on a repeatable basis with the help of @BarclayDavidP, a former FTC attorney & @hajsharda, an author/lawyer/antitrust whiz.
Ever since I was invited to testify before Congress at age 20 about millions of wasteful bloat at Brown I uncovered through data mining, I realized the government just didn’t have the bandwidth to stay on top of these things without the help of whistleblowers.
The TAM here is huge — 500B per year. Easily a huge market opportunity that can create multiple unicorns.
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
No idea this existed until today. People can make billions ratting out the fraud: What is “qui tam”? Via Gemini: “Qui tam is a legal provision that allows a private individual (known as a relator) to file a lawsuit on behalf of the government to recover funds lost to fraud. The term comes from the Latin phrase qui tam pro domino rege quam pro se ipso in hac parte sequitur, meaning "he who brings the action for the king as well as for himself." In California, these actions are primarily governed by the California False Claims Act (CFCA), which is modeled after the federal version but tailored to protect state and local taxpayer money. How Qui Tam Uncovers Fraud in California: The CFCA is designed to incentivize "insiders"—employees, contractors, or competitors—to expose schemes that the government might not otherwise detect. 1. Common Types of Fraud Reported • Healthcare/Medi-Cal Fraud: Overbilling, "upcoding" services, or billing for treatments never provided. • Contractor Fraud: Using substandard materials on public construction projects or inflating labor hours. • Grant & Education Fraud: Misusing state funds provided to schools, universities, or research institutions. • Procurement Fraud: Conspiring to rig bids for state contracts or providing defective products to state agencies. • "Reverse" False Claims: Intentionally underpaying money owed to the state (e.g., hiding a debt or under-reporting natural resources extracted from state land). 2. The Process: Filing "Under Seal" To uncover fraud without alerting the bad actor, the process follows a specific "cloak and dagger" procedure: • Confidential Filing: The whistleblower files the lawsuit in secret (under seal). Not even the defendant knows they are being sued yet. • Government Investigation: The California Attorney General (or local prosecutor) has 60 days (often extended) to investigate the claims privately. • Intervention Decision: The government decides to either intervene (take over the case) or decline (let the whistleblower pursue it on their own). Whistleblower Rewards and Protections California offers some of the strongest incentives and protections in the nation to encourage people to come forward.
English
Tim McDonald 🇺🇸 💪 retweetledi
Nvidia is buying Groq for two reasons imo.
1) Inference is disaggregating into prefill and decode. SRAM architectures have unique advantages in decode for workloads where performance is primarily a function of memory bandwidth. Rubin CPX, Rubin and the putative “Rubin SRAM” variant derived from Groq should give Nvidia the ability to mix and match chips to create the optimal balance of performance vs. cost for each workload. Rubin CPX is optimized for massive context windows during prefill as a result of super high memory capacity with its relatively low bandwidth GDDR DRAM. Rubin is the workhorse for training and high density, batched inference workloads with its HBM DRAM striking a balance between memory bandwidth and capacity. The Groq-derived "Rubin SRAM" is optimized for ultra-low latency agentic reasoning inference workloads as a result of SRAM’s extremely high memory bandwidth at the cost of lower memory capacity. In the latter case, either CPX or the normal Rubin will likely be used for prefill.
2) It has been clear for a long time that SRAM architectures can hit token per second metrics much higher than GPUs, TPUs or any ASIC that we have yet seen. Extremely low latency per individual user at the expense of throughput per dollar. It was less clear 18 months ago whether end users were willing to pay for this speed (SRAM more expensive per token due to much smaller batch sizes). It is now abundantly clear from Cerebras and Groq’s recent results that users are willing to pay for speed.
Increases my confidence that all ASICs except TPU, AI5 and Trainium will eventually be canceled. Good luck competing with the 3 Rubin variants and multiple associated networking chips. Although it does sound like OpenAI’s ASIC will be surprisingly good (much better than the Meta and Microsoft ASICs).
Let’s see what AMD does. Intel already moving in this direction (they have a prefill optimized SKU and purchased SambaNova, which was the weakest SRAM competitor). Kinda funny that Meta bought Rivos.
And Cerebras, where I am biased, is now in a very interesting and highly strategic position as the last (per public knowledge) independent SRAM player that was ahead of Groq on all public benchmarks. Groq’s “many chip” rack architecture, however, was much easier to integrate with Nvidia’s networking stack and perhaps even within a single rack while Cerebras’s WSE almost has to be an independent rack.
English