crypto data

This #BITCOIN model DCA i would use if I would belive, #recession would have no impact on BTC cycle!

@benjamincowen I saw a strong bearish signal for the S&P 500 in January. x.com/trybeatbitcoin…

The only way I see a macro low as early as May (like in 1970) is if there is no relief in late April and instead a further rapid decline in asset prices. Base case for now though as I see it is that the market stays weak into the first half of April and from there we can see if any relief materializes.

@bariksis @benjamincowen If you would listen to Ben you would learn that he speculate like you do. Your speculations just look very bad. If you would listen to Ben speculations you would made nice money since 2022, when btc hit the bottom.

@benjamincowen I've already admitted to being wrong. If I am wrong about my June 2026 ATH prediction, I will own that too. The difference between us is the fact that I have 5K followers, and you have 1M. I won't lead anyone to getting wrecked If I am wrong. You will.

If everyone is supposedly bearish then: Why do I get hundreds of comments saying "I can't wait for you to be wrong" on every video I post expressing a bearish view? Why do dozens of influencers tweet about me weekly laughing and saying that BTC follows M2, ISM, etc. and that this is a 5 year cycle or supercycle? Why is it that every time I join a twitter space, the collective response is for people to label me a doomer for having the audacity to suggest midterm years are not great for BTC? It's easy to pretend like everyone is a bear, but one look at plenty of influencers on this app would show the opposite. I see a lot of influencers who missed the top and faded the four year cycle now desperately want the market to bail them out. I see influencers that shilled altcoins for 4 years because they thought alt season was coming and now they desperately are searching for any reason that the market won't go lower. Social interest in crypto is still trending down. Monetary policy remains restrictive, and macro headwinds continue to exist for the first half of 2026. BTC always forms lows in February of midterm years, then has countertrend rallies that lasted a few weeks, before the market then drops again. No amount of mental gymnastics will change how the market cycles tend to work. We can keep pretending that everyone is a bear, but one look at the comment section on any of my bearish tweets would prove otherwise.

@guinnessstache @QaleoX @benjamincowen @jon2day After your comments people should not listen to you about finance. You act like a 5 year kid trying to get attention

@QaleoX @benjamincowen @jon2day And yet, I was right. The YouTube video doesn't lie

youtube.com/watch?v=Tp8mTr… if anyone wants a good watch here is Ben talking about how Bitcoin probably wouldn't sustain over $20k until end of Q4 2021...it actually sustained over $20k about 2 weeks after this video in November 2020... Careful who you listen to in this space, these "influencers" can lose you as lot money if you take them to heart sometimes. Best thing to do is just buy and hold something if you like it and you think it's great tech that will do well long term. Patience is key. Don't let these people trick you into thinking you have to sell to catch bottoms because most people never will be able to time it... With the Clarity act passing at some point in the near future, i would rather just hold what i got and wait it out. Less risk when you do that.

@thejbullmarket @benjamincowen Don't fight the Fed. When the Fed changes the magnitude of its balance sheet, BTC normally drops also in bear markets. The Fed looks at macro data, and the macro looks worst since Fed ended QT with a reason.

So because you were right this time, now you take revenge on everyone that was not right? When the market pumps throughout summer should we all attack you then again and then when you are right again you can attack everyone again? I could just as easily critique you for ignoring the trenches when I called 100x on $PENGUIN and $BP and called for trench-season in January, which turned into the best trench-season we ever had. Altseason is always a bit different and this one was as well, but there are always alt-seasons one way or another. Also, everything is gambling these days if you look at stocks, gold and silver price action. They trade just like memecoins (metals and some stocks as well are memecoins that don't do anything). Investing in Bitcoin long-term was the worst thing to do over the last years as it's only up 5% after 5 years from its 2021 highs. Only buying at the bottom when fear was at what it is right now and selling at the very top was outperforming other assets. However, both investment theses have their merit, to each their own. As for your other points: 1. These aren't bullposts, these are complaining about bad altcoin action, the altcoins only pumping and dumping every couple of months, which we have seen last year and doomposts. 2. I was not ignoring indicators last year, but saying that there are more bullish indicators, especially from the macro, which was simply the case. 3. I'm not saying that the indicators are 100% correct. Like you I am looking for indicators and there are lots of bullish ones, but the only bearish indicator is seasonality. 4. My job is not calling Bitcoin tops, the price of Bitcoin is not really relevant to me as I find good altcoins that outperform regardless of Bitcoin price action and have been saying that constantly. Appreciate your analyses, however, quite confused why you only look at seasonality, are all other indicators irrelevant?

If your quant who has been bullish on BTC from $126k to $60k is dunking on people because of this candle, then you need to find a new quant. Bitcoin has *always* rallied in the first week of March in midterm years.

When the fear index is unusually low, it often signals a calmer market environment — a moment long‑term Bitcoin believers tend to use for steady DCA.

Something big is coming. It won’t be pretty. And it’s not far away.

Someone is dumping anything they can — as if tomorrow doesn’t exist. In my view, that “someone” is the United States, acting out of panic to protect the Dollar. Their currency, everyone’s problem. They look calm on camera. But behind the scenes? I’m certain they’re sweating.

This is just my opinion — and I don’t say this lightly. After weeks of digging into the data, my colleague and I reached a conclusion I can’t ignore.

I’m convinced that alliances that held for 70+ years are no longer active. The old world agreements are dead. As I wrote in my S&P 500 thread: the US Dollar has become a target — not only for enemies, but for former allies.

@touch_grass69 @AlexAmylon @cryptomanran hi

@AlexAmylon @trybeatbitcoin @cryptomanran Gold? 😆

@Duffey7Tom @benjamincowen hi!

@trybeatbitcoin @benjamincowen alts look fine and just made higher lows...Benjamin clown sucks, esp if you're paying

#BTC Risk Metric m.youtube.com/watch?v=g_ryyK…

@ArabianElon @MartiniGuyYT Hi! Do you understand why @MartiniGuyYT delete many of his posts now. We comment under his post. He did this ton of times

@trybeatbitcoin @MartiniGuyYT Good idea, to remain poor. Yes.. really

@Iv_982 @BitcoinMagazine hi!

@trybeatbitcoin @BitcoinMagazine Everyone thinks it is sell the news event. This can only mean one thing : it is not.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 BlackRock files registration of securities for their spot #Bitcoin ETF with the SEC 👀 Approval soon? 🚀

📉 There are only 0.95 job openings per job seeker. The trend is falling — and in these conditions BTC has never entered euphoria, and altseasons have never appeared historically.

@Sykodelic_ @benjamincowen You were wrong about alts all the cycle, why we should think you are right now?

@benjamincowen Ben, you can attempt to smear my name as much as you like. I am simply telling you that pivoting at this stage when BTC.D and ETH/BTC look like this... is silly. Sure, diversify, but the current setup is not bearish for alts, as much as you want it to be.

Don’t be afraid to pivot. So many people just keep waiting for “alt season” they end up missing years of gains in other asset classes. It’s ok to have things besides extremely high risk investments

The S&P 500 confirmed a monthly Hanging Man at the very last moment of 2025. December closed below November — the signal is now confirmed. My view: ~70% chance this bull market has topped. Do with that what you will.

@pedrosilva @benjamincowen are you familiar with btc dominance? Do you have time that i present it to you?

But you leave the outliers out of your analysis, that's easy just to fit the "I told you so" The truth is that solid altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, which not even did a 10x. And for you "most people loose" money and a few Maxis agree with you and and ignore the data and the facts.

Genuine question, Ben. Name one single cycle in crypto history where Bitcoin decisively outperformed all well-selected altcoins. Not memes. Not garbage. Real fundamentals. Real timing. Or is the uncomfortable truth that your framework cannot identify alt winners, so anything outside BTC gets retroactively labelled “worthless” after the move is already over? Trashing altcoin holders that had several 10x or more when Bitcoin not even a 10x did, is ignoring the facts to keep is narrative alive.