That's me done with Twitter. Won't be posting here any more. It's a real shame but there we are.
Find me on Mastadon:
@twitonatrain@mastodon.scot
or Blue Sky:
twitonatrain.bsky.social
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Alistair Hutton
7K posts
Alistair Hutton
@twitonatrain
I'm done with Twitter find me here: [email protected] https://t.co/UaESaGDtf2 I made a game: https://t.co/dmBnBHvbOc
@[email protected] Katılım Mayıs 2010
262 Takip Edilen231 Takipçiler
He's running.
Kyle Griffin@kylegriffin1
Breaking: California Gov. Gavin Newsom just called for a legislative special session to be held in Sacramento on Dec. 2, just weeks before Trump takes office, "to safeguard California values and fundamental rights in the face of an incoming Trump administration." It will initially focus on funding state litigation around Trump administration actions that might impact civil liberties, reproductive rights, immigrant protections and climate action in the state. nytimes.com/2024/11/07/us/…
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@admcrlsn Surely the large Dem over performance in the swing states compared to the national picture says that it totally works.
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This is very far from my area of expertise, but moving forward I hope we have a serious conversation about at what point bombarding voters with incessant TV ads (as a kind of campaign arms race) & text messages has diminishing returns, or can even alienate some gettable voters.
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@vanillaopinions They grew up in a Zero Interest Rate environment where VCs subsidised middle class style lifestyle perks.
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Alistair Hutton retweetledi
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat.
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇
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@andrewfrugby You included the dead ball slap out that should have been a penalty try vs Glasgow? Is this a bit?
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@mbateman The Neighbour question has a very mixed history. If I remember correctly it predicted a 60% Trump win in Colorado in 2016.
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The French Polymarket whale commissioned polls with a specific alternate methodology, the “neighbor method”
1. What a baller
2. What a killer example of how betting markets can surface contrarian, high quality signals
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@lib_crusher This is Bernie who underperformed Kamala Harris?
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@Pulpstar @TheCap893 Even with the votes to come the Dem drop off is crazy and Trump is barely going to be up on 2020.
My priors have been smashed into the ground.
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@TheCap893 I can assure you I'm not, Trump has won ECV and PV handily - from what's left that's very obvious. But the final totals for the PV just aren't known yet. They've both got millions of votes to come in yet.
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Gee whizz we know the result but vote totals are WAY off final yet.
Anonymous@YourAnonNews
Something doesn't add up. In 2020 Biden had 81 Million votes, Trump had 74 Million votes. In 2024 Harris got 66 Million votes, Trump got 71 million votes. 15 Million Democrats decided to sit this one out? 3 Million MAGA decided to sit this one out? No fucking way.
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So what I really want to know to make sense of things is the 2016->2024 swing.
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@Pulpstar Barely at 9 million votes counted in California and people are trying to do popular vote autopsies.
Shaking My Head (at my immolated Betfair balance).
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@schlagteslinks Texas doesn't like female presidents is my takeaway from this.
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From a personal betting point of view my post-2016 intuition of American politics that steered me well through mid-terms, off-cycle-governorships and the 2020 presidential is now shattered.
Just did not see Trump doing across-the-board better and breaking his 47% ceiling.
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Am I wrong or is the Senate going to be a bloodbath for the Dems?
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@RalstonReports Oh wow, a third of the electorate may be a third of the vote. Never saw it coming.
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The indie turnout in urban Nevada is insane.
It is far outdistancing the R and D turnout in both Clark and Washoe, may end up being close to a third of the vote.
All about the indies in Nevada.
I estimated 400,000 of them; already at 359,000.
Eric Neugeboren@eric_neugeboren
Latest Washoe County Election Day turnout data as of noon. 🔵2,738 (23.7%) 🔴3,819 (32.2%) 🟡5,308 (44.7%) Dem share same as at 10 a.m., Rs drop a little and nonpartisans gain. Should have more data in the next hour or so with a statewide turnout update
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@lxeagle17 The most painful thing is seeing people fall for the CNN exit poll year after year after year.
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State prices and election winner price are decoupling. Kamala is steaming in in Nevada but going out for the Presidency.
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@StatisticUrban In 2020 the blue line did not hit 100% all the way to the meeting of Electors in December when the market was finally settled.
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@absoluteSlur @hugop_arts @KC_Personne @SylvioOps @andreeee99 @ThePavoReality @CentroLeaks @Just_me_0531 @AustinJohnPlays If you are not online how does your account get updated?
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@hugop_arts @KC_Personne @SylvioOps @andreeee99 @ThePavoReality @CentroLeaks @Just_me_0531 @AustinJohnPlays “It gets wiped if you delete”
can you prove this with screenshots of you opening up the app to see how it allcoates data?
Ofcourse not
Because
You Are Speculating
You don’t know
There is always something for the server to pull because you are using the same account
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In Pokémon TCG Pocket the cards are already decided when you get to this screen, every pack is the same.
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You should never, ever draw conculsions from early in the day voting percentages ESPECIALLY 2020 Vs 2024 but if you were the kind of person to do so then this would be a 3 bell alert eyes popping out of head awooga klaxon.
Dr. John R. Samuelsen@JohnRSamuelsen
EDay Turnout - Clark County, NV 11/5/2024 7:30am Dem 1,432 (30.3%) Rep 1,618 (34.3%) Other 1,674 (35.4%) Total 4,724 Okay, I think this is real. The thing is, Dem/Other should only grow through time. Dems have a chance of winning EDay in Clark.
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