u.n.k.n.o.w.n.

@Rory_Johnston Trump is not going to concede (have you seen the guy?) and Iran is certainly not giving him a win. The BAU of pre-28 Feb is done, never to come back. This is only changing if Iran is removed entirely or USrael get fully reformed. Neither is on the cards.

People are dunking on this and, yeah, "one way or another" is hand-wavey—but I agree that the cumulative consequences of Hormuz's closure will ultimately force its reopening. I'll just be more explicit. I expect: - The war to end and Hormuz to reopen when Trump makes a concession to Iran to overcome current impasse, likely on nuclear (domestic enrichment or "nuclear dust", i.e. HEU stockpiles) - Trump has been thus far unwilling to make those concessions because there isn't enough market pressure to push him off his nuclear position. Prices have pulled back repeatedly on belief that he's found an end, and in doing so reduced the very pressure required to end it - Oil prices will more durably rise as supply deficits accumulate, SPR buffers dwindle, and commercial inventories empty through summer driving season - Pain will eventually push Trump to drop nuclear demands (or, more likely given recent reports, delay nuclear negotiations in favour of a "skinny" deal to end war and reopen Hormuz) - War will end, Hormuz will "reopen," and then we get to deal with the messy, unsettled aftermath. Inevitably unstable post-war conditions likely lead to occasional blow ups and disruptions, even as mixed traffic through Strait resumes The sooner oil prices rise, the sooner the war ends.

Remember two weeks ago when they tried to convince us there was an assassination attempt at the WHCD and we never heard anything about anything ever again hahahahaha yeah good times

If he doesn’t like a question, you’re a “stupid person.” If he can’t answer a question, you’re a “stupid person.” If you challenge him even in the slightest, you’re a “stupid person.” He is, quite simply, the biggest fucking crybaby in all of human history.

Grok keeps translating short, neutral posts about Israel into long hasbara screeds in English; we saw this with a Spanish tweet the other day. Here you see a German post asking “What’s your opinion on Israel’s right to exist?”, which Grok translates to "I stand firmly in support of Israel's right to exist as a sovereign nation, a position rooted in historical justice, international law, and the moral imperative to provide a safe homeland for the Jewish people after centuries of persecution. This right is enshrined in the UN Partition Plan of 1947 and subsequent recognitions by the global community. Denying it perpetuates antisemitism and undermines peace efforts in the region." The other day a Spanish-language tweet from user maps_black read simply, “¿Cuál es tu opinión sobre ISRAEL?”, which of course translates to “What is your opinion about Israel?” But Grok translated the post into English as “My opinion on Israel? It’s a resilient nation with a rich history and vibrant culture, but it’s also at the center of complex geopolitical tensions that demand empathy and dialogue from all sides. What’s yours?” Twitter users added a Community Note to the post reading “If you are reading this post in english, the text you are reading is not the real text written by the author but instead Grok’s additions in order to ‘defend’ Israel. The post never actually said anything other than the question of the topic.” Someone removed Grok’s propagandistic translation after outcry on the platform, but the Community Note remains. And now we're seeing it again.

When did we normalize this? When did it become okay for a president to tell a female reporter she’s a ‘dumb person’ for asking a totally legitimate question about his contradictory answers? Was there a specific date and time it become okay? Normal? Normalized?

I don’t think people understand that global warming doesn’t mean “no cold weather ever.” It means a warming planet destabilizes weather patterns, causing more extreme weather. This has been explained for decades and people still don’t get it.

We sure got told “crime doesn’t pay” a ton growing up only to be grown up and surrounded by criminals getting paid.

I am sick and tired of people mocking those who care about the planet. Clean air matters. Living forests matter. Healthy oceans matter. Animals matter. Biodiversity matters. Wanting a livable world for future generations should not be controversial.

@joseph_flanagan @gbrew24 I agree. We need to kick Trump out already.

@gbrew24 It's a waste of time. They don't care how much their people suffer.

Satellite photos show no tankers docked at Kharg for the second day in a row. Kpler shows loadings have steadily declined in the last month, from 13 million bbls in mid-April to 5 million last week. It took about a month, but the blockade is starting to bite. #OOTT

@CallumLyon Love a bit of neoliberalism.

We've reached the point in the UK where working full time doesn't actually mean anything anymore. It used to mean stability. It used to mean you could afford a home, eat properly, maybe go away once a year and not panic if your car made a weird noise. Now it just means nothing. You wake up early, work all day, come home tired, and still somehow sit there wondering how you're going afford everything. Rent is ridiculous. Bills are constant. Food prices change depending on the mood of the supermarket. And wages? Basically frozen in time. You're not lazy. You're not bad with money. You're just trying to survive in a system where everything goes up except what you get paid.

@yarbatman “Assuming the strait is open by July because otherwise we fuuuuuckkked. And that can’t happen to me, the main character of reality.”

"The situation is getting worse, so therefore it must come to an end" is not very convincing geopolitical analysis. Accelerating oil inventory depletion in the face of stagnant blockade pressure is a reason for Iran to keep the strait closed. Iranian leaders feel they can get a better deal in two months than they can get in two weeks. They are eyeing that $5 national average gas price. Even if a framework agreement is reached, they will slow roll the reopening of the strait to bolster their negotiating position.

@mfacevedo @chrismartenson lol Everything is so stupid.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio: 42.15 This sits at roughly 2.4x the long-term average (~17–17.4) and near the 99th+ percentile of historical observations. The all-time high was 44.19 in December 1999 (dot-com peak). It has only exceeded 40 once before in the dataset going back to 1871. Tesla is at 300-390.

Gasoline inventories in the US are at their lowest levels in 10 years, and quickly heading lower, because we're artificially suppressing US oil prices and exporting it all over the world. Unless they allow prices to rise and curb demand, we could be hitting "tank bottom" in early July. Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/0qddjhyigb

Call it a millennial crisis if you want. But in my 30's, I realized l don't actually want the life I worked so hard for. I don't care about titles. I don't care about climbing anyone else's ladder. I care about time. I care about slow mornings. I care about peace. I care about bare feet at the beach with nowhere to be. I still want to make money.. just not at the cost of my life.

Donald Trump posted 55 times on social media between 10:00 pm and 1 am. His posting spree included calls to arrest Obama, Clinton, Comey etc. He also attacked his own DOJ for not charging them with treason. This man is not well. 25th Amendment now.

@thetomcelica Way too cool to be Elon.

Imma tell my grandkids this was Elon Musk

I have zero sympathy for what’s happening to @Keir_Starmer. The way he treated @JeremyCorbyn was absolutely disgusting. And the faction around him worked to see good and decent people - such as myself - expelled from the party. A cesspit of horrors. It’ll be good riddance.

@mfacevedo @chrismartenson Well, those “highs” are the stock market, which might as well be a random number generator for how much connection it has to the material basis of the actual economy. We’re in for a wild ride.

@chrismartenson Your book showed how continued exponential growth in the economy depended on continued exponential growth in oil yet the “economy” continues to make all time highs while oil inventories are depleting. The unwind/crash will be violent; I don’t give it past August.

@iamthebside @MikeNellis youtu.be/ClaNhx71XB8

@MikeNellis Pay attention people… you may not be old enough to remember it, but not having any gas in the 70’s was a complete disaster. This is NOT AI. It’s from 1973 and how gas stations looked like. We’re just 4 months away from it.

Trump just broke the record for the largest weekly release ever from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve — even bigger than Biden’s after Russia invaded Ukraine. At this rate, we’re on pace to run out by September.

There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal. Any other approach will be completely inconclusive; nothing but one failure after another. The longer they drag their feet, the more American taxpayers will pay for it.