Chasing Ring #28

LEGEND 💀💀

@implausibleblog He literally chuckled and nodded. He didn’t shake his head lol

President Trump, "King Charles will be the first British King to address a joint session of the US Congress" "And I'm going to be watching" *King Charles shakes his head* "It's not supposed to be protocol but I'd love to be with you" "There, the direct descendant of King George III will speak to the direct successor of the very body that gathered in Independence Hall on July 4th, 1776" "If John Adams and George Washington or the King’s fifth great-grandfather could see that sight, they might be absolutely shocked, but probably only for a moment" "Surely, they would be delighted that the wounds of war healed into the most cherished friendship" "Think of that, very very. Long ago, difficult war. And yet those wounds did indeed heal into the most cherished of friendships, most cherished" "They would be moved beyond words that soldiers that once called each other Red Coats and Yankees because the Tommys and the GIs who together saved the free world as brothers in arms and brothers in eternity" "And nobody fought better together than us" "If they could see us today, our ancestors would surely be filled with awe and pride that the Anglo-American revolution was never extinguished" "Today we look back on 250 years, let us remember what has made our countries the two most exceptional nations the world has ever known"

@Cernovich I’d like to clarify that my “4-7” was a 7. Would be an 8 if the Iran War wasn’t started. Will be a 10 if the Iran War ends with a deal for no nuclear arms

If you voted for Trump in the 2024 election, overall how would you rate his current term, with 1 being the lowest and 10 being the highest:

@FischerKing64 In any event, it could not have come at a worse time for Iran. OPEC’s structure is essentially the leverage. Most people don’t understand that the vast supply of oil in one region (like U.S.), does very little to change prices, EVEN IN THAT REGION. It’s because of OPEC.

Interesting that UAE is leaving OPEC, but I doubt it's the end of the organization. It's basically an international, state-operated cartel that restricts oil production to keep prices high. It's useful to the members - who all cheat on the rules now and then for their own financial reasons and then lie about it to one another. So it's a way to coordinate global oil prices, but isn't overly strict. Fun legal wrinkle - this behavior is a clear violation of US antitrust law. If domestic oil companies were restricting production this way, they would face civil and criminal liability. But it's considered immune under the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act as actions of foreign governments. So we should just have to take it - and bully our "allies" who are members of OPEC now and then to raise production when we're getting pinched at home.

@bonchieredstate He didn’t say he would do it. He just stated as a fact that they’re struggling (which I believe btw). This feels a lot more like a PSA bulletin to remind folks that the pressure is getting to them.

Lifting the blockade with no concessions based on some vague claim about them needing time to figure things out is not something we should do. Not sure if he’s saying we will do that or not here.

@ggreenwald Both of these things can be true at once when you take into account that the government turned into several fractured cells at the beginning of the war. I have no doubt there are large swaths of those cells begging to make a deal while the other cells say nope.

Iran has spent 9 weeks on its knees begging Trump to accept full surrender because they have no weapons, no ability to communicate and are on the verge of collapse. Somehow, they simultaneously also have the Strait of Hormuz closed and refuse to give Trump what he demads.🤷‍♂️

@ProjectVirginia This is a fine analysis but I’m a VA voter and when my brother told me Sears was gonna be the nominee I told him she was going to lose by 20. Because she’s an awful boring candidate lol. You forget she’s even there. This was all well before Trump had any major “losses” btw.

How did I know almost a year in advance that Winsome Sears was going to lose by 15 points? It was very, very easy. She was elected in 2021 with a very slim majority of the vote. The 2021 coalition was explicitly based in a rejection of identity politics. There was absolutely no room to lose part of that coalition, without replacing the losses somewhere. She then branded herself right out of the gate as an identity politics candidate. From experience I knew that about 20% of 2021 GOP voters would not endorse such a thing under any circumstances. So the upside case was losing about 10% of the vote. The downside case was that these liabilities would compound, and the losses would be much greater. What really disturbs me is that the @VA_GOP establishment was incapable of making this very simple, straightforward, and compelled-by-the-facts conclusion. The massive losses in 2025 and other downside consequences such as the referendum are the direct consequence of this dereliction of duty on the GOP side. This cannot be allowed to happen again, not just in Virginia but in any state. These are unforced errors that come with a body count, as Democrat policies universally lead to death and destruction.

@Cernovich And if this truly ends with a deal where Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon, then it was a massive success. Massive.

Other than the Iran war, everything people blame Trump for is the result of judges blocking prosecutions or making up new rules for their side, and obstruction from the Senate. I'd still take Trump + the Iran war (which I don't agree with) over Kamala Harris. Not a close call.

@RtRoach1986 @NateSilver538 The new map DID NOT fail. That’s what I’m trying to explain to you. The IRC made a proposal and the NY legislature rejected it and drew their own map again. That map is what stands right now.

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 which failed. it has not been implemented. You're really ridiculous

The Virginia margin wasn't huge. But this reflects a remarkable degree of partisan coordination. And frankly rational behavior by Democrats under the circumstances. Almost perfectly aligned to 2024.

@RtRoach1986 @NateSilver538 And then they drew their own map in the end. Lol what part of that are you not getting? The Court said no -> the Court drew their own map -> that map expired -> the IRC tried to draw an independent map again -> the NY legislature rejected it AGAIN and drew their own map AGAIN.

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 You said babbled a lot and ended on they failed

@RtRoach1986 @NateSilver538 NY didn’t fail. They failed the first time and the Court drew a temporary map and then IRC redrew the maps again because the Court drawn map was only temporary. Then legislature still rejected the IRC’s map and did their own map again lol

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 Just like Utah, they failed. Are we in agreement that your confusion as to why VA was needed after CA redistricted was phony and performative? And the VA was meant to make up for MO, NC, and OH?

@GlobalC35478 @NateSilver538 Lol

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 You’ll never win an argument because your position is incomprehensible. Even the Republicans in Congress agree with me. Your own side won’t even back you up because your arguement is fucking stupid

@NickyFrank30 @NateSilver538

I don't, because you're lying. By law, the IRC's map has to be approved by the legislature. They were approved with minor changes that did not make any district more Democratic. In fact, in two cases, it made seats less competitive for Democrats - the State Senate's changes made Pat Ryan's district LESS safe, and Nick LaLota's MORE safe for him.

@RtRoach1986 @NateSilver538 By the way, are we in agreement that NY gerrymandered?

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 And then you did the same even though it didn't fit your narrative either

@GlobalC35478 @NateSilver538 I’d never lose an argument if I moved the goal posts like you lol

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 Precisely. That is where the President began his failed attempt to insulate GOP control of the House against his unpopularity. I’m glad you understand it now.

@RtRoach1986 @NateSilver538 You literally cited Utah for your benefit lol. Which didn’t fit your narrative because it was court drawn and gave Dems a seat

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 Also, UT was ordered by a Judge to correct illegal race-based gerrymandering, as you forgot to mention

@RtRoach1986 @NateSilver538 By the way, even though I was right about NY being gerrymandered, you cited Utah even though that one actually was court drawn specifically to add a D +1 seat.

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 So...VA "cancels out" NC and OH So no need for performative confusion from you about CA.

@GlobalC35478 @NateSilver538 Now we’ve got a “round of redraws” ? When do we start this “round?” It sounds like it doesn’t start when NY lost 3 seats and then gerrymandered them back lol. It sounds like it doesn’t start with failed attempts from R and D states (in fairness to both sides). It starts with TX

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 Read this article and tell me with a straight face Trump didn’t start this round of redraws. politico.com/news/2025/12/3…

@GlobalC35478 @NateSilver538 the only point of this conversation was to demonstrate that Trump did not start the mid-decade redistricting. But we keep shifting that focus

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 Ok, here’s a question. Is the median house seat more or less favorable to the GOP than Trump’s margin of victory in 2024. Here’s a hint: VA doesn’t change it

@NickyFrank30 @NateSilver538 I believe this is probably good faith dialogue. All I’ll say is that the timeline I just gave you was from googling it. I believe it’s from balletopedia. You don’t have to take my word for it

@vanillavick96 @NateSilver538 The legislature did not draw New York's maps.