VK Rollup

this @tushar_jain episode from @KevinWSHPod is worth the listen strong takes on the idiot/genius heuristic, $SOL vs $HYPE positioning, zcash:native as cypherpunk bet, and why open interest beats volume pulled the best parts with timestamps for investors/traders in the article here x.com/vkrollup/statu…

@KevinWSHPod @multicoin great interview with @tushar_jain here is a detailed breakdown with timestamps for traders/investors nfa just sharing what resonated x.com/vkrollup/statu…

E178: Tushar Jain - Why Multicoin is betting big on Hyperliquid, Zcash and Solana Tushar Jain is Managing Partner at @Multicoin. He's back on the show to talk about where crypto is in the cycle, how he sizes bets across $SOL, $HYPE, and $ZEC, and the frameworks he uses to manage his own psychology. Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro 1:31 - Who is Tushar Jain 3:44 - Are we at a crypto turning point? 4:57 - Buying into bad news before confirmation 6:24 - Buying vs. selling: which is harder 7:13 - Still bullish on @solana ? 9:15 - TradFi issuers and credible neutrality 11:47 - Sponsors: @variational_io @Bitwise 12:39 - How to size two competing bullish bets 14:13 - Category leader vs. "better play" 17:00 - Most obvious trade for 2026: $ZEC 19:39 - What @Zcash represents 22:27 - Valuing an asset with no revenue 24:18 - Trading framework vs. buy-and-hold 26:40 - Valuing $SOL and $HYPE 31:45 - Sponsors @KASTxyz @Trezor 32:54 - Timing entries in volatile assets 36:26 - Why @Multicoin doesn't trade, only manages 39:25 - The four sources of investing edge 41:14 - Edge examples: $ZEC, $HYPE, $ENA 43:21 - What Ethena represents 45:37 - How much founder quality matters : @gdog97_ example 47:09 - When to take profits 49:50 - Thoughts on Ethereum and $ETH 51:44 - Kyle leaving Multicoin 53:03 - Sponsors @JupiterExchange @ethena 53:46 - Why Tushar is still in crypto 58:26 - Wrap-up and thanks 1:00:37 - Bonus segment intro - Zcash drama + Hyperliquid report 1:00:39 - What happened with the Zcash bug 1:04:13 - Zcash's fix: the Ironwood pool 1:05:50 - How long it took to decide to buy more 1:08:13 - Multicoin's Hyperliquid report 1:09:55 - Base case: $319 $HYPE price target, key assumptions 1:15:21 - Is the crypto bottom in? 1:18:11 - Closing thanks

full episode here so you can follow the timestamps youtube.com/watch?v=Ah0D2H…

@TraderMercury so true i don't see anyone posting about $SPCX on my tl anymore

remember $SPCX? everyone had an opinion on this. suddenly nobody cares if it had rallied, you would have never heard the end of it because it didn’t, everyone’s quiet influencing 101: just be very loud and obnoxious with your bias never discuss trades after you’re wrong.

the interesting thing is that crypto looks promising on the 1d chart but on the weekly its a lot murkier total1 example we're on the cusp of breaking daily resistance but we then need to challenge weekly resistance so the true resistance is the red box ethereum:native even with one of the stronger alts we see the same making a hh on the daily but still need to prove it on the weekly i tend to trade on htfs and look for momentum plays so atm there is no obv trigger for me to take a trade sometimes the hardest part is doing nothing and knowing you may miss some of the moves

not even 12 hours later things are looking interesting CPI came in lower than expected total1 sitting right below resistance rsi trying to push past the 50 level ema 9/21 bullish crossover ao+rsi bull divs usdt.d+usdc.d sitting right above support rsi barely holding 50 level ema 9/21 bearish crossover ao+rsi bear divs $QQQ my only concern is equities continuous lower highs on ao+rsi ao in bearish control zone rsi barely holding 50 if there's any time for crypto to outperform its now keep in mind cycle analysis points to bottom being some time in oct-dec so any rally here is likely a bear market rally

re crypto sitting mostly in cash and seeing how this all plays out on htfs (weekly) it looks like more time needs to pass before a sustained rally ive learned that it’s better to not try timing the bottom to preserve capital will continue to post analysis tho good luck to everyone

solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump update (7/14/2026) going into day 7 of the correction 4h shows unsuccessful retest of resistance its possible we revisit the green box again zooming out to the daily we are starting to see market structure forming but need more time expecting continued consolidation cpi coming in lower does make this more interesting

solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump update (7/12/2026 evening) 4h breakout and close above the diagonal and horizontal resistance making a higher high it seems like we'll at the very least make a push toward prev aths the big question is if we get the volume for a sustained breakout. jury is still out on that remember on the daily we made our first green candle after 5 days and even though it was a bullish engulfing candle volume equal to the prev day as a bag holder id love for it to pump to valhalla but I wouldn't be surprised if we chop and range on the daily

4h & 1h h&s pattern played out last night wicked into the demand zone now consolidating i'm expecting either: 1. bear flag breakdown to bottom of green box 2. pump to retest horizontal resistance + diagonal trend people forget that memes can retrace 80%+ to the 0.776 and 0.886 fib levels before bottoming this can takes weeks or even 1-2 months i believe solana:9cRCn9rGT8V2imeM2BaKs13yhMEais3ruM3rPvTGpump has potential be one of the top memes this cycle but patience and a cool head will go a long way

things change fast sometimes 👀

ngl teared up reading this

@thegreencandle_ @Pentosh1 am aligned with everything you shared selfishly hoping we get one more leg down so we get nice entries

Yeah, my default assumption is we'll get one more leg down eventually, ig when stocks have a real pullback. But I'm not *that* confident about it this cycle, as we had no euphoric top and a slower build up than previous cycles. If it hasn't happened by Dec I'll probably just finish building positions and hope for the best. I also wouldn't expect SOL to collapse like it did during the FTX saga. It's the only major with an established uptrend in intercycle dominance and I don't see it going much lower than $50

sol is a great example of this, look how clean it is however in the future, this becomes a great level to trade off where you can limit downside, and eventually have the upside. capturing the meat of the move. you can apply this to most charts imo

agree that blind TA has its limits thanks for mentioning that and sharing those data points looks like btc july 2018 high to cycle bottom: -62% btc july 2022 high to cycle bottom: -37% sol july 2022 high to cycle bottom: -83% avg time to bottom ~4-5 months which would take us to about nov/dec 2026 this lines up somewhat close what i got when analyzing prev cycles using total1 though using this methodology the bottom looks more like oct/nov what do you think?

@vkrollup @Pentosh1 I mean look at the historical data, 2022 July BTC did +20%, SOL did +100%. 2018 July BTC did +20%. July is a strong month in bear markets for macro reasons, blind TA has it's limits

this answer captures how I feel

@riskenthusiast lots of wisdom in this

I have been World Cup maxxing and largely ignoring markets as we go through this chop Been to 4 matches irl so far, seen 18 goals live I'll care about markets again after the final

@counterpartytv @notthreadguy great stream this morning. i feel the same way about LA used to live there as well about your question at the end about if crypto bottomed i put together a thread analyzing it curious to see what you think x.com/vkrollup/statu…

our stream today in 42 minutes 1:03 Polymarket win streak 5:01 Korea's leverage wipeout 8:25 war & oil Groundhog Day 16:24 SpaceX nears the rage sell 21:47 Apple wins by doing nothing 25:11 guardian of the Hormuz Strait 32:00 the AI gap is getting bigger 38:01 is this the Crypto bottom?

@theempirepod @inversion_cap @JasonYanowitz @santiagoroel great episode. pulled the biggest takeaways on the inversion pivot robinhood chain success and ai operational leverage into a detailed breakdown. full article with timestamps here x.com/vkrollup/statu…

NEW POD We Cover: - @inversion_cap's major pivot - $HOOD's new chain - Is Fable hype real? - Crypto’s value accrual problem @JasonYanowitz @santiagoroel Links Below ↓

this @theempirepod episode with @santiagoroel @JasonYanowitz breaks down why the crypto integration thesis hit real limits in legacy businesses while ai delivers now. inversion pivoting to quality holdco model. robinhood chain shows why distribution wins. full breakdown with timestamps in the article below. nfa just sharing what stood out x.com/vkrollup/statu…