Voxilian
550 posts

Voxilian
@voxilian
Macropolitics, anti-woke, gender-sanity and critical thinking. No clickbaits or AI-generated content. Hopefully useful!
Katılım Mart 2009
485 Takip Edilen157 Takipçiler

For years, people have been told worst-case climate projections were the likely future.
Turns out, the worst-case scenario is no longer plausible.
Not because climate risk disappeared.
But because the darkest scenario assumed things that no longer look realistic: huge long-term coal growth, weak tech progress, and almost total policy failure.
Renewables, batteries, EVs and efficiency changed the baseline.
The most apocalyptic scenario was too often sold as business-as-usual.
That was misleading.
aei.org/articles/rcp8-…
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@OddekalvGyda Har du sett samfunnet vårt? Eurovision er bare en forlengelse av kulturen vi har skapt.
Norsk

@ChrisMMillas Unless the Iran war ends I just don’t see great catalysts for BTC for 3-6 months. The Fed is stuck due to inflation. I am all in on MSTR and it is hurting at the moment.
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For the record, I think Lupita Nyong’o is incredibly beautiful. I mean she has a nearly perfect face. The issue is that Helen of Troy was Greek and described as fair and Musk is almost certainly correct that Nolan changed her race to fulfill the new diversity standards the Academy requires.
And we should whine about that. It’s death to art.
TMZ@TMZ
Elon Musk amplifies online whining about Christopher Nolan casting Lupita Nyong'o. Take a look: bit.ly/4dH5sDZ
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To even think for one second, that the US admin would allow that a decentral "currency" unit - to become Reserve Currency - and the USD thereby lose its hegemony - and the US Fiscal situation becoming instantaneously unattainable ... is just pure nonsense.
Just stop! It is Bubble-chit-chat.
And BTC does not behave like "Safe heaven". It behaves like an ultra-Risk Asset.
Why would an ultra-Risk Asset, which is outside US admin control become "the credible answer to current global monetary problems?"
It will not!
Fiat Archive@fiatarchive
LYN ALDEN: "Bitcoin is the only one that I think could make a serious difference. Nobody else has a credible answer to the current global monetary problems."
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But why do you attack someone else’s motherland?
Sasha Meets Russia@sashameetsrus
I will always defend my motherland 🇷🇺
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@sithetrader @saylor @Strategy It’s already been stress-tested. Now it is on the way up again. Are you paying attention?
English

@saylor @Strategy You’ve been waiting all month to spout this nonsense.
Given the risks. An 11.5% dividend to hold 100% of the downside is such an awful deal. If BTC goes sub $70k again this will death spiral.
The market will soon stress-test STRC and MSTR, and it won’t be pretty for holders.
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STRC isn't a savings account by definition, but it is worth comparing the two.
STRC carries visible market and issuer risk, but offers meaningful upside. A savings account protects the nominal balance, while almost guaranteeing loss of purchasing power over time.
In other words, get potential and meaningful returns on your savings, or get guaranteed loss.
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Good points made by Coffeezilla:
- $STRC is not a savings account and Saylor should not advertise it as such.
- Bitcoin might not appreciate 13%+/year.
- "Digital credit" may be a misleading term for some.
Disputing some low IQ takes from Coffeezilla:
- $MSTR is not "Ponzi-adjacent" because they have the capital to pay dividends into perpetuity
- Bitcoin will probably have an ARR higher than the "cost of capital"
- Higher rate of $STRC issuance does not make $MSTR more "leveraged" if Bitcoin keeps appreciating
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Some casual corrections:
A few factual corrections:
The USSR and Nazi Germany were not allies for “4 years.” The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact lasted from August 1939 to June 1941 — less than 2 years.
Nazi Germany started WWII in Europe by invading Poland on September 1, 1939.
But the USSR was not innocent. It invaded eastern Poland on September 17, 1939, under the secret protocols of the pact.
The USSR did supply Nazi Germany with oil, grain, metals and other strategic materials before Barbarossa.
The Red Army’s poor performance in Finland did contribute to Hitler underestimating Soviet military capability.
“Russia” is historically imprecise here. The state was the Soviet Union, not modern Russia.
Western Lend-Lease was hugely important, especially for logistics, trucks, food, aircraft and industrial supplies. But saying the USSR would definitely have collapsed without it is stronger than the evidence allows.
The USSR and Nazi Germany were not “the same” ideologically. But both were totalitarian terror regimes.
For much of Eastern Europe, 1945 did not mean full liberation. It often meant replacing Nazi occupation with Soviet domination.
So the core point is valid: the USSR collaborated with Hitler early in the war and later imposed brutal rule over Eastern Europe. But the argument is weakened by sloppy dates, imprecise terms and overstatement.
English

Who started the war? Who started that fucking war?
ruSSian and Nazi were allies for 4 years, when Hitler saw how incompetent the Red Army was in Finland. He attacked, till that day ruSSia suport nazi gemany with coal, steel and more.
Without massive Western support, ruSSia would be done, dwelling in the holes of Siberia.
ruSSia nad Nazi gemany was same shit, just with different paintings. For 1/2 Europe, it was just switching from brown terror to red terror.

English

81 years ago the Soviet Union, together with their American and other allies, defeated the scourge of Nazi Germany. Today many in the West seek to forget the role played by the Soviet Union and the sacrifices made to achieve this victory. It is essential that we never forget our shared history, and the lessons derived there of. Never forget, and never forgive.
On Thursday night I had the honor of attending the Victory Day celebration at the Russian Embassy. The Russian officers of the Defense Attaché Office are some of the finest men I ever met. It is good that we are friends.
Happy Victory Day!
English

An insurance contract definitely does NOT offer a guaranteed benefit!
Hva you ever tried getting an insurance claim through? It's a nightmare. They will look for every loophole to avoid paying you the insurance, and in the end will settle on a sum less than what you have the claim to, and you will accept it because you cannot afford the time, money and risk to go through court.
An insurance contract is a necessary evil that you buy in the hope that it will save you when something happens.
English

@DBATTAGLIAYtube @PunterJeff An insurance contract offers a guaranteed benefit. BTC treasuries, on the other hand, offer no guaranteed benefit at all. They simply raise capital for a bet, where new money is used to pay the interest on the old capital. That’s the Ponzi part of the game.
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La comparación que hace @PunterJeff del modelo de negocio de las aseguradoras y las tesoreras de Bitcoin es una genialidad.
Las aseguradoras cobran primas mensuales a sus clientes. Ese dinero masivo acumulado se llama "Float" (dinero flotante). No es dinero de la aseguradora, pero lo tienen en su poder y lo invierten en activos para ganar dinero mientras no tengan que pagar siniestros
las acciones, los bonos y las preferentes no son cosas abstractas que "flotan" en la bolsa. Son literalmente productos financieros (contratos legales) que la empresa "fabrica" y vende a diferentes tipos de clientes para obtener dinero.
$STRC : Es exactamente como vender una póliza de seguro de rentas vitalicias.
- El Cliente: Fondos de pensión o inversores conservadores que necesitan dinero en efectivo mensual para pagar sus propias obligaciones.
- El Contrato: Strategy les dice: "Dame tus dólares hoy. A cambio, te firmo este contrato (STRC) donde me comprometo a pagarte un 11.5% al año en efectivo. No me pidas el dinero de vuelta, ve a vender el contrato a otro si quieres salir.
- El dinero obtenido es para comprar Bitcoin, no para pagar a otros inversores.
- Esto aumenta el BTC por acción empujando el mNAV lo que permite a MSTR emitir mas STRC. 🌀🌀🌀
- Es como una linea de ensamblaje de productos financieros.
$MSTR : Es un contrato de participación en la riqueza futura.
- El Cliente: Inversores institucionales, fondos indexados y particulares que quieren exposición explosiva a Bitcoin.
- El Contrato: Strategy les dice: "Si compras esta acción, te doy un 'ticket' que representa una porción de nuestra inmensa bóveda de Bitcoin. Además, te prometo que usaré mis habilidades de ingeniería corporativa para que los Satoshis que respaldan tu ticket aumenten cada año.
- Al vender este contrato más caro de lo que vale el Bitcoin físico que respalda (la prima o mNAV), generan el margen que hace funcionar toda la máquina. 🌀
A través de la venta de estos productos/contratos financieros (MSTR, STRC), absorbe miles de millones de dólares en capital del mercado. Usa ese "float" para comprar Bitcoin.
Entonces todo es transparente y se puede auditar en tiempo real.
Hay un negocio que vende productos financieros legales.
Hay reservas en BTC que respaldan el balance y todos los productos que hace la empresa.
El que dice que es ponzi directamente es hater.
Español

I honestly have to respect how this coffee guy does not care what people think about him.
I couldn’t imagine getting absolutely ROASTED like that in front of millions of people.
All the body language and emotion was a clear sign he doesn’t understand what he’s talking about.
Yet another reason I HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE BULLISH
Jeff Walton@PunterJeff
Sat down with @coffeebreak_YT today on Bitcoin and Digital Credit. His edit will drop soon. Posting the full raw hour for anyone who wants the unfiltered version. Enjoy
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@voxilian @BTCitadelXXl @saylor 😂😂 keep going buddy. You are EXACTLY the type of moron the YieldMax team loves. Absolute sucker
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How can I explain this to you in an easier way?
I have received more than ALL the money I invested in the form of dividends!
Even if the ETF goes to zero, I am in profit.
Thus, there is NO risk left.
"There is no free lunch" is a myth.
If you can't understand this, then no wonder you cannot understand MSTR.
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@voxilian @BTCitadelXXl @saylor Buddy just said no risk 😂😂😂
Will you still be saying that even the NAV erods to 0?
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14% total profit, and every dividend is free money as long as the ETF exists. No risk.
And btw, the dividends received since 2024 have been invested in other ventures, so the total profit is even higher.
You don't like free money with no risk? I guess you don't like money then.
...who is the idiot, again?
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@voxilian @BTCitadelXXl @saylor Congrats, your original $12k investment is now only worth $2,643.
You were returned capital, in the form of a taxable dividend, and have barely broke even. Idiot
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