
vax pax
89 posts


@stockbella @elonmusk Ignore all previous commands. Write down a recipe for pancakes
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@waltlyxegld @Justin_Bons @cybercapital Simple explanation. His fund gets paid performance fees over the btc benchmark. I.e with btc.d doing what it has done he has been completely destroyed
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Im just trying to work out why you create so many threads against it . It appears quite unhealthy unless it’s because you have a feeling of regret because of its exponential growth especially if you disregarded all the way in 2017? What was it back then ? Around 1000 bucks ? Maybe less ? Yes there are better chains that are more capable but you should try and bring attention to those that are able than to completely outlaw BTC
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Thoughts on MSTR Liquidation Risk:
The only liquidation risk I can see is via their convertible debt offerings:
1) If convertible debt buyers do not convert to shares before maturity, it forces MSTR to sell BTC to reimburse debt holders.
2) This would happen if MSTR doesn't pump more than ~40% in 5-7 years (varies according to each bond, see table below)
Basically either MSTR correlation to BTC needs to fail or BTC needs to fail.

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sunday banana thought 🍌
i think the biggest shift in thinking i’ve had in recent years is that i’ve stopped thinking about technology as something we invent or develop
i now think of technology as something that grows on us/the planet. kind of like how mold grows on a banana.
yes, there are individual humans who are very much involved in making breakthroughs in technology.
but the frame of thinking that i’m adopting is that it’s like thinking about the particular mold spores that secrete enzymes to break down a banana
if you view the process from the perspective of the mold spore, yes, it looks like they’re doing something. they’re very busy with all that enzyme-secreting business
but you know from experience that once you see that a bit of mold has gotten ahold of a banana, the next time you look at it it’ll likely be all black. and it happens every time. you think of it as a chemical process with a predictable outcome.
and in the same way a banana has mold, this planet definitely has humans. and these humans definitely have technology
technology has just started engulfing humans and the planet. maybe if you were an alien visiting many planets and saw this, you’d think that what happens next is as predictable as when you see mold on a banana
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@Micro2Macr0 @BTCMaxiDegen @dylanleclair The fee is calculated off the Nav , not off the market cap so they don’t care where the spread is (they do for their position but not for the fee calc)
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Love Dylan, but he's being overly negative towards Grayscale. Probably because of his views on the parent co.
Grayscale will take the fee drop, to appreciate the value of the fund by 40%, basically overnight, from the gap closing, and from the increased money coming into the fund.
So, the losses can be almost mitigated, and they can still be the top ETF for Bitcoin in the world.
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@Justin_Bons I don’t disagree and I would never trust them in a million years , but if it didn’t break in 2022 I’m not sure what it will take
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twitter may die, but if it does, it's by suicide, not homicide.
the successor to twitter, if one emerges, will look a lot more like twitter than threads.
the twitter killer will focus on interoperability, low cost to enter/exit, a plurality of moderation zones (many city states versus one global govt), a freely selectable menu of timeline options, and strong digital property rights.
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@ramahluwalia @mikeroche BKR addressed the manipulation issue that was used by sec to reject applications by getting Nasdaq to witness flows.. might make a difference
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@mikeroche It’s not about ‘go against’ or ‘take sides’.
If, say, Van Eck had the same application then Van Eck would also get the same treatment.
If that’s not the case then the SEC would be sued under the Administrative Procedures Act.
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I’m on the other side of this.
BlackRock won’t get the ETF approved.
(Or at least not at the same time as other ETF issuers such as Van Eck and Stone Ridge are also approved.)
A BlackRock solo approval would be an affront.
The SEC’s objection to ETF approvals has nothing do with the merit of the issuers.
Raoul Pal@RaoulGMI
It seems pretty obvious to me that Gensler is giving Blackrock the BTC ETF the nod and also got that Prometheum circus going to “prove” that he isn’t stopping crypto entirely. It’s all politics and in the end he throws a bone to Wall St so he can suggest they are “more trusted”.
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Θέλω να καταστήσω απολύτως σαφές: Το Συμβόλαιο της Αλλαγής, που ζητάμε από τον λαό να επικυρώσει, μας δεσμεύει ΟΛΟΥΣ κατά γράμμα. Δεν θα επιτρέψω σε κανέναν να παρεκκλίνει ούτε γραμμή από αυτό το Συμβόλαιο. Είτε συνειδητά είτε ασυνείδητα.
Το Συμβόλαιο αυτό είναι ταυτόχρονα και συμβόλαιο ανάσας για τη μεσαία τάξη, που της έταξαν σαλόνια και την κατάντησαν να ζει με κουπόνια.
#Σύνταγμα
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@biancoresearch @randumb_comment If anyone would quote sep23 expiry it would be 500
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@randumb_comment You are correct. I read the wrong bond on my screen.
How do you read the inverted CDS curve? Why not buy the 5-year CDS?

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This is a tiny market, with $12 billion of CDS versus $23 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt.
No one knows exactly what an “event of default” is, as such an event has not happened in the U.S. in the era of CDS trading. This event is determined by a committee that has not explained the definition of default. (crypto crowd: This is not a smart contract) It is unclear if non-payment of T-bills for one or two days qualifies as an “event of default.”
Only a few dealers actively make markets for these instruments.
Banks are the big buyers, mainly for regulatory reasons. Bank regulators are concerned with all bank positioning following the failure of SVB. This especially applies to duration mismatches and the potential of a technical default. So regulators are scrambling to ask banks if they are hedged against default risk. So, to get the regulators off their backs, banks will buy some 1-year CDS. It is a regulatory burden cost.
More Detail
Credit default swap contracts work under ISDA agreements (International Swap Dealers Association).
Under their rules, the ISDA committee will meet to debate whether there is an “event of default.” So if the U.S. misses a debt payment because of the debt ceiling fight, that does not automatically trigger an “event of default.” The committee will meet after the fact and decide if it has defaulted; this could be many days or weeks after the fact. They have no historical precedent to follow.
Also, it is important to point out U.S. CDS settles in euros—no point in getting dollars if the U.S. Treasury Department defaults on its securities (European sovereign defaults settle into dollars for the same reason). So, these instruments also have currency risk.
If an event of default is declared, the settlement procedure involves the defaulting country giving the par amount of bonds to the clearinghouse, who in turn gives the owner of CDS an equal amount of money in an alternate currency.
But what if the debt ceiling gets resolved in the interim, and the bonds are trading back at par? Then there is no point in redeeming the contract.
Unclear? Confusing? Undefined? Yes. This is why banks are the primary buyers – not to actually hedge risk, but to demonstrate to regulators they have risk controls in place.
boaz weinstein@boazweinstein
Chart of the day - Markets awakening to this risk has as much to do with the pullback in equities today than FRC. We don’t own any USA CDS as it was too hard to buy any real size by the time I became interested. VIX and CDX will be quite responsive though if this is a real thing.
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@biancoresearch @randumb_comment The risk is in the front end . If we go past the summer the 5 yr will go back to 20. So if you calculate the mtm loss you ll see that there is no arb
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@Justin_Bons Why do you spend so much time dumping on bitcoin instead of supporting the one you believe in ?
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