Walter Bascom

This August 9th, 3 Key Concepts:

@favelaoverlord Did one of the New World crops get to China?

The discovery of the potato in the Americas and its summary import back to Europe is one of the most underdiscussed modern events relative to the impact it had

@Zerosumgame33 To clarify, CLMT doesn't require methanol?

$CLMT There is a GARGANTUAN squeeze going on in Methanol prices right now that is getting worse and worse by the week as prices are now $1,480/metric ton!!!!!!! Methanol is the #1 non-feedstock input cost needed to produce a gallon of Biodiesel. In order to meet mandated 2026 + 2027 RVO, Domestic biodiesel players must run 100% utilization!!!! Everyone is enamored by D4 RINs currently indicated > $2/gal, but Biodiesel is STILL simply just covering VARIABLE COST TO PRODUCE!!!!! considering $0.76/lb. Soybean Oil + $1,480/MT Methanol. Given these dynamics, my contrarian, non-consensus, non-appeasing view is that D4 RINs will soon trade ~$3/gal, which is 100% accretive to Montana Renewable's P&L as the lowest cost D4/RVO contributor on the cost curve. The best part? >80% of Montana Renewables' capacity yields are SAF which they've inked multi-year take-or-pay offtake contracts that spit off $1/gal+ premium ON TOP OF the underlying squeeze dynamics going on in Renewable Diesel, thanks to the still-not-yet-in-the-money Biodiesel market. The public equity market has z e r o clue.

@virgilthebig Pecunia non olet

Yes

@Peter_Nimitz x.com/i/status/19697…

In theory land acknowledgments are incompatible with anti-subversion duties, but in practice no one is troubled. Only way to reconcile these is a conception of Canada as an Amerindian custodianship. Provincial bars correctly understand this even if population doesn't yet.

@GiovanniDannato The arguement for the prior position seems stronger now than then.

I love X for the zeitgeist: this time last year, the overall mood was still "Ha, just don't be one of the poors." Since the end of 2025 or so, it's been total crowd panic as if caught in a pincer movement by the Carthaginians.

@taobanker Those who can and are willing to entrench themselves in an organization will do so. Those who can do/live better elsewhere will "boil off".

corporate jobs are going to keep getting worse and worse because all the ensouled people keep leaving to protect their spiritual energy

@taobanker More likely Governor Shapiro.

Dawg I can't fucking do a Vance vs Newsom election can we please think of another path forward

@ayayayeya @ApatheticJester @lerningtohunt I was hoping no one beat me to that line..

@ApatheticJester @lerningtohunt

Every time I go to Best Buy I look for the alien my dad taped to the ceiling 20 years ago when he worked there. Still going strong

@orrdavid What's a good more recent example to compare as a counterpart?

You can immediately tell when a building came from Japan's bubble era. This is the lobby of the Twin 21 mid Tower complex in Osaka.

@foronionfutures 7 USC 13-1(a) also bans "motion picture box office receipts".

Onions are the only commodity that you cannot trade futures on, leading to immense volatility in the market. This hurts small onion farmers and onion consumers most. We are trying to overturn the Onion Futures Act of 1958 to remedy this injustice. Join us. #onionfutures

@MaxTuretzky There are fewer than 1 million people in America that understand this. I feel sad they do not know how crazy this is.

@nocntxtreplyguy @MaxTuretzky There are none. One of only two futures contracts Congress outright banned.

@MaxTuretzky there are onion futures? what's the ticker?

A UChicago student group is currently handing out onions at the Northwestern Arch to protest to the Onion Futures Act of 1958

@Big_Orrin The Senate did not get the oppertunity to formally consider Mr. Moore's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

@Big_Orrin I remember when that was the justification. Certainly fell off in CONUS after the Shale era, probably sooner.

@Horacethe1st "Fossils fuels in the last century reached their extreme prices because of their inherent utility: they pack a great deal of potential energy into an extremely efficient package."

Lord Trump, please lower gas prices.

@fingerishatroc1 Tbh, if countries were willing to take the local political hit, they'd probably do well to market themselves to expats.

@JulianWaller Is Neutral Moresnet on there?

The hallucinatory adjunct list is more fun tho, because it includes countries like Ruritania, Gondor, and Belgium.

@taobanker Might be self-fulfilling situation. Shorts with...decent arguements come to him, he still wants to live up to the reputation, and it becomes a feedback loop.

it's highly unlikely that michael burry is organically this terrible at security analysis most likely he's coordinating with shorts somehow

@ThHappyHawaiian "Guild and Landsraad contain the keys which hold this force in check. No, my concern goes to the development of humans as special weapons. Here is a virtually unlimited field which a few powers are developing."

What if it’s cheaper to just turn humans’ brains into supercomputers via enhancements than to develop AI?

@staffpro11 You probably know why he's on the board;)

So according to OCP's hybrid bond issuance they have sulfur till June for phosphate production thats currently running alot lower due to a carry forward maintenance shut down lasting a quarter. Its almost May 1st. Typical transit time for bulk carriers from UAE to Jorf Lasfar, Morocco is 32+ days. So basically now every incremental day of closure is a phosphate shortage on the back half of this year as the worlds largest supplier will not have the feedstock (they were sourcing 50+% from UAE mostly via LTC with qatar energy.) They may plug the hole somewhat with russian/american/canadian shipments but not a 50% hole.... This is also on the back of all Saudi production/export is also not flowing as all the DAP facilities/ports are in the persian Gulf.... Maaden is TRUCKING DAP from east coast to Yanbu .... this isnt like an oil pipeline the capacity will be severely limited.... Maaden to export phosphates from Yanbu in the Red Sea | World Fertilizer share.google/VQe3Vso2WKQ9OM… This will likely benefit phosphate producers with stable sulfur supplies like $MOS (caveat being they are struggling with the surging sulfur price and its been a dog for years) however if DAP makes a move .... India's in the market with a tender currently for a massive 1.6 million tonnes DAP. It is underowned, no hedge funds in it, no one talks about it, no one cares .... like $CCJ at $10 in 2020 or $SBSW at $4 when no one cared about PGMS - often the hardest investments to hold through inflections as its alot of pain but i genuinly feel like there is something here and hence why im accumulating. (funny $CCJ 's CEO Tim Gitzel is on board of Mosaic with a decent position....) India’s IPL issues tender to buy 1.6mn t of DAP/TSP | Latest Market News share.google/8xUENZvUc7akKW… #fertilizers