
Weldon Lin
80 posts



🧵 1/11 Half of U.S. adults already use AI for financial advice: what advice are they getting? New paper: we ask people to write prompts seeking financial advice from LLMs & simulate the lifetime impact of following that advice (w/ @timdesilva, @wdwlin & @AkuzawaMatthew)

I always dreamed of becoming a macroeconomist one day.






#ICLR2025 Oral LLMs often struggle with reliable and consistent decisions under uncertainty 😵💫 — largely because they can't reliably estimate the probability of each choice. We propose BIRD 🐦, a framework that significantly enhances LLM decision making under uncertainty. BIRD = LLM strengths + sound probability theory BIRD leverages LLMs for world modeling and constructs a Bayesian network using LLM-generated variables, enabling interpretable and trustworthy probability estimates. ✨ BIRD using LLaMA-3.1-70B achieves 30% more accurate probability estimates than GPT-4. 📄 Paper: openreview.net/pdf?id=fAAaT82… 💻 Code: github.com/CogComp/BIRD Shoutout to my amazing collaborators: @BenZhou96 @wdwlin @DanRothNLP 🗓️ Oral Session 1B: Thu 24 April, 10:54 a.m. – 11:06 a.m. SGT ➡️ Poster: Thu 24 April, 3:00 p.m. – 5:30 p.m. SGT #AI #LLM #decisionmaking #ProbabilisticAI (1/n)

Just posted a new paper: "Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing" with @rebeccardiamond . We examine racial inequality in "total returns:" house price appreciation, a home's rental value, property taxes, and maintenance. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Just posted a new paper: "Racial Differences in the Total Rate of Return on Owner-Occupied Housing" with @rebeccardiamond . We examine racial inequality in "total returns:" house price appreciation, a home's rental value, property taxes, and maintenance. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…



The amazing ‘moneyness’ of Treasuries on.ft.com/3LMNFNA



Sebastian Merkel teaching how to include NK price stickiness in a safe asset model at the Princeton Initiative.







