@PeterKBonney @OnodaCapital it's about 50% in 5 years (illustrative example below -- not to be relied on for any purpose!)
English
BNWeb
1.7K posts
BNWeb
@web_bn
Intended to post updates to the blog at https://t.co/P4j1pAV6Lf . But frequently distracted.
Katılım Ekim 2019
2.1K Takip Edilen66 Takipçiler
@OnodaCapital That recovery assumption seems high, and a lower recovery implies a lower default probability.
CoreWeave is a risky credit, but 50% annualized default probability seems way too high.
English
Confused by this. Maybe should read debt docs. Is there technical explanation here?
$35B equity value, >$50B backlog, mostly amortizing loans, Nvidia backstop for a few $B
CRWV default implies AI trade blows up. CDS saying >50% odds. NVDA would get smoked, among others
Mr. VIX@yieldsearcher
CRWV CDS now at a level where it is better off quoting on upfront (inverse recovery; paying 13.5pt, or buying 86.5pt recovery) points rather than spread. Implied default probability is now above 50%.
English
@modestproposal1 Because bond traders don't want to buy them without some equity-like upside ?
English
dumb equity guy question: if the CRWV/ORCL CDS is a technical function of thin markets and few viable hedging instruments, why do the CRWV bonds themselves trade so poorly?
English
Coreweave CDS is trading at ~874bp
$CRWV senior bonds carry 9% coupon
As soon as the CDS crosses 900bp that means bond investors will expect not to recover 100% of the principal
However, if bond investors don’t recover 100% principal, the value of the equity is ZERO
Just a FYI
JustDario 🏊♂️@DarioCpx
#JustDarioDaily ⚠️ COREWEAVE: A FRAUD HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT ⚠️ $CRWV $NVDA #stocks 🔗 to Article 👇🏻 justdario.com/2025/08/corewe…
English
@Schuldensuehner Added ~$15bn bond borrowing and ~$5bn leases in 6 months to November....
English
Oracle’s credit profile continues to worsen. The company’s CDS spread (cost of insuring against default) has climbed to 151bps, its highest level since 2009 – a warning sign not just for Oracle but for the broader AI sector. Markets are now pricing in a probability of default of >12%.
English
@GTCost @Schuldensuehner The bonds don't seem to be that far from the CDS? The 5 year Oracle bond is yielding 5.1% versus 5 yr treasury 3.7%
English
@Schuldensuehner Yet, bonds are not showing huge distress. tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-O…
English
@FlipLondonTours Ha, remember the old buildings well! Walked past it again ~7 yrs ago and is now unrecognisable and shiny!
English
The “Eton of the comprehensive system” 1970s. Photo by Ron Read.
English
@BenClose1983 Looks like the condensing boiler drain is just behind... With a bit of adaptation (but not for £15!) you could connect the water outlet into that and not have to empty the tray...
English
Update.
They plugged it in excellently. Very professional job.
10/10. Would recommend.
Ben Close@BenClose1983
Just bought a new tumble dryer and paid, among other things, £15 for installation. Then realised it’s a tumble dryer and it only needs plugging in. £15 for someone from Curry’s to plug a socket into a wall. I shouldn’t make major purchases when unwell. 😆😩
English
@NicholasOShaug1 It could be that we are coming up to the first deep downturn in UK HE since then... things would be playing out very differently now if the old rules had stayed.
English
@web_bn Yes; it was abolished for all promotions and new appointments, with an inevitable result.
English
There is no such thing as a tenured academic in the British Isles; I have seen many former colleagues simply fired- eg the organisation theory group en masse at the University of Leicester.
Joseph Steinberg@jbsteinberg
Lots of people seem triggered by this. But if being a tenured academic isn't that great, why spend all those years being poor in grad school and stressed on the tenure track? Revealed preference says there must be a payoff, especially given that there's a lot of risk involved.
English
@BruceHistorian Didn't English tenure get abolished in practice by Thatcher in 1988 ?
English
Not to dunk on this guy, and I'm very glad that these conditions still prevail in Toronto, but not a single item on this list is relevant to an academic at any level in the UK.
Joseph Steinberg@jbsteinberg
Tenured academia is really not "just a job." - can't be fired. - get a 5-month summer break. - complete flexibility on schedule/wfh - study what interests you -get paid more than enough to live comfortably. It's completely rational to work insanely hard to get this!
English
@NeilForPoole Pensions already invest vast amounts of money in UK government projects through buying "gilts" ....
English
When savings are pooled into pension funds the collective strength is huge.
That money should help rebalance the country & benefit ordinary people.
Pension funds could pay for more council houses and cheaper renewable energy, which would benefit us all.
English
@arpitrage Weirdly true in UK too. Really not good for children travelling on their own on foot or bike.
English
BNWeb retweetledi
We’ve evolved a social norm post pandemic in which one more car is allowed to cross after the light turns red, and then you wait a second longer when it’s green to avoid hitting this car.
Which, I guess is sustainable as long as everyone follows
English
My favorite "grift" was in Nairobi, during a protest/riot -- right after the police came in and cleared up the downtown with tear gas, I went down and out to get food, and the head of the police unit who had cleared my block, really gregarious guy, stopped me, and told me a man like myself needed company, and that he had plenty of very young beautiful women who worked for him who he could send up to my room, for a fee of course, and when I politely declined he then said there was a riot tax and which I needed to pay him immedietly and that's when I pulled out the "I work for the US embassy" thing, and he dropped it.
English
There's a standard quip from third-world immigrants on why their country doesn't work but America does: "Back home, you have to bribe government to do their job. Here, the government fines you if you don't do yours properly."
I don't think Americans understand just how pervasive, and debilitating, corruption is in 3rd world and how central "not being openly corrupt" is to a functional society.
Jacob Ben-David Linker 🇺🇸🕎🇺🇸✡️🇺🇸🕎🇺🇸@JacobALinker
I like this explanation. Somalia was Communist from 1969 to 1991. Communism fosters dishonesty in people. In such societies, the honest person is a sucker.
English
@MortgageMikeN2 @moneyandmore72 I'm sure they have great capabilities and will be able to earn enough for all this.
But I don't get how they can be sure enough the next great job is in London?
English
@moneyandmore72 Mortgage payments and rent will be similar. People like to put down permanent roots. Will use bonus to overpay and has option of downsizing in future. Personally, I’d buy a cheaper property.
English
The total to pay back on some of these mortgages aren’t for the weak 👇🤯
English
@duncanrobinson Got to question her career choice of going into politics if that is indeed how the exchange went.
Plenty of jobs where people can demand (perhaps unreasonably) automatic respect but politics should never be one of them
English
@DrewPavlou But predecessor countries for most of this map (A-H and Ottoman empires) were far *more* multicultural and yet lasted hundreds of years vs ~70 yrs for Yugoslavia.
English
Okay Jarvis, bring up Ethnic Composition of Yugoslavia in 1991 Map
Sami Gold@souljagoyteller
Of course I can intellectualize about it, but on an instinctual and moral level, I can’t understand how someone can oppose multiculturalism
English
@david_stillwell Why not have permanent homes there for academics & their families? If a collegiate university is desired, the solution is available right here and now.
English
@web_bn Think it's mostly postdocs, who are also struggling. But new faculty can also live there for a year or two.
English
Today I had a conversation with another Cambridge faculty who is buying a house 40 minutes away because they can't afford any closer. This policy is helping to destroy what makes Cambridge special. Can't have a collegiate community with a 40 minute commute.
Kane Emerson@KaneEmerson
I just want affordable housing please
English
@singleaspect @MunicipalDreams We can make it happen. In next recessions council should buy PRS properties at a good discount and turn them back into social. Better than propping up the private sector artificially like last 3 times.
English
From an article in today's Financial Times. Such an obvious statement of fact. It's hard to understand why direct public investment in social rent housing - so successful for decades - is now unthinkable.
English