William Chen

953 posts

William Chen

William Chen

@willintaiwan

Katılım Mayıs 2020
135 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
Mark 简单
Mark 简单@dandanyu783·
@iPaulCanada 我想你误会了 从另一个完整的视频中 你会看到 查尔斯国王之所以停止握手 是因为后面都是他自己带来的随行人员 而川普并未越过卡梅拉 他只是接续了她的位置与接下来的英方人员握手
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iPaul
iPaul@iPaulCanada·
只要自己不尴尬,尴尬的就是别人。 英国国王和王后访美,在白宫外的欢迎仪式上,卡米拉王后正在与一排政界人士和官员握手(其中包括副总统 JD·万斯、卢比奥等人)。 就在此时,川普直接从查尔斯三世和卡米拉王后之间穿过,切断了卡米拉王后正在进行的握手路线,并先于王后开始与队伍中的人一一握手。卡米拉王后在这一瞬间显得有些措手不及,略微停顿了一下才继续,查尔斯三世在旁边也显得有些无奈。 按照传统外交礼仪和英国王室规矩,通常不应在君主或王室成员正在交流时强行穿插。
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stekkerauto 🚗⚡️
stekkerauto 🚗⚡️@stekkerauto·
After holding for well over half a decade – and accumulating through dollar-cost averaging over the years – I have sold the vast majority of my 6k $TSLA shares in recent weeks. I purchased my first few shares after Model 3 was presented, as its possible impact was (almost) obvious. I'm still bullish on the company long term, but in the short to medium term I’ve lost confidence in meaningful upside. Even if Robotaxis were to scale tomorrow, much of that success is already priced in, given the sky-high P/E ratio. The potential downside now seems much larger, as we are running on fumes. Producing and selling cars appears to have become an afterthought, as Elon has bet everything on autonomy – which may well prove to be the right call in the long run. But as of now, I see too many indicators that the Robotaxi software simply isn’t ready. I don’t want to see piles of Cybercabs sitting on Tesla lots while the share price evaporates into thin air – and management stays traditionally mum. Optimus has yet to prove it's for real, and competitive. I'm tired of empty promises and dangling carrots. Risk-adjusted, TSLA is way too hot for me now. We’ve been through variations of this before, but it didn't fazed me as much because the trajectory was clear and I believed Elon had shareholders’ backs. That trust, however, has taken a major beating over the past few years. Elon’s shenanigans – selling Tesla stock on the open market to buy Twitter, funneling money to xAI while granting Tesla only a tiny stake at a sky-high valuation – are just two examples. Then there’s the apparent desire to merge @SpaceX with Tesla, for reasons that are certainly good for Elon, but doubtful for Tesla shareholders. Elon’s utter lack of enthusiasm on the recent earnings call sealed the deal for me. Trust is hard to gain and easy to lose. And even though I can’t fully articulate it, I’ve lost confidence in Elon’s willingness to make Tesla shareholders whole. Honorable mention to the ever-bullish $TSLA accounts on X, whose opinions are based on pure fantasy, utterly unmoored from market realities. These guys have blood on their hands, misleading retail investors, and they know it. Any pushback gets the standard response, “ok sell your shares then!” Alright. I hope this is temporary and things work out in the end anyway. I still hold a few hundred Tesla shares and will continue to do so for nostalgic reasons – maybe things will work out after all. I’m still rooting for the team, and I might buy in again later. I still love the cars, even though the model range, too, could use some attention. I’ll also continue to hold a few hundred shares in a family portfolio I manage. This might turn out to be a stupid call of epic proportions right before a wide Robotaxi launch – akin to selling Apple before it went parabolic – but at my age I want to sleep without too much worry. Over recent months, Tesla has given me more worry than pleasure, so it’s time to reallocate. Holding Tesla was fun when it felt like we were a band of visionary pirate underdogs, with Elon as our lead cheerleader. But something has changed. @elonmusk has new toys, and maybe we’re now part of the establishment – and anyway, there’s no need to be married to a stock. For what it’s worth, it’s been an interesting ride. And anyway, isn’t it all about the friends we made along the way? 🐟🐠🐡🦈🐠🐟
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@gregory_FTA I’m really bullish on memory and hbm, and think this valuation is ridiculous as well, but probably the market expects them to have downfall earnings for next few years and next quarter will be the peak. We shall see what happens, what’s your take?
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Gregory, FTA
Gregory, FTA@gregory_FTA·
$MU "The stock has rallied 35% in the past week, and the forward P/E has risen to 4.5" . . . a sentence one rarely gets the opportunity to utter.
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@L_rabbit829 我也很歡迎你有不同的意見可以讓我學習新的觀點,但或許你也應該尊重每個人發言的權利,你覺得我的回覆像屎我也覺得你的回應像屎,這種負面態度對誰好了
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@L_rabbit829 首先其實我也不是在回應你,而是你發文下面的回應說對方性別都要去死,覺得比較偏激而回應,也沒想到你把自己變成事主;另外這個是公眾討論平台,平台的演算法性質就是開放各種意見的,你可能覺得這個是像ig一樣,你要責怪陌生人留言或許應該去找x官方為什麼演算法這樣設計
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@L_rabbit829 不要不同立場就不能講道理,你有你的理由跟道理可以講出來討論,需要發給你那個辯論金字塔圖形嗎?
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穿ㄕㄢ🐰
穿ㄕㄢ🐰@L_rabbit_pa·
然後點進他的主頁,發現喔喔原來如此
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@fancheyu17 @L_rabbit829 你現在享有的一切文明生活物質大多數都是男性自古以來建立的,可以討厭少數行為有問題的族群但以偏概全是否太biased
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翻車魚
翻車魚@fancheyu17·
@L_rabbit829 男性就是世界最噁心的生物,男性消失可以解決九成問題
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穿ㄕㄢ🐰
穿ㄕㄢ🐰@L_rabbit_pa·
兩年前被男變態跟蹤騷擾,尾隨回家,他被抓當下甚至爆氣襲警,事後也是高高舉起輕輕放下,不痛不癢罰個一萬塊,連坐牢都不用。 同一年我朋友在便利商店打工,一個常客老男人不斷趁著她上班各種言語騷擾、買禮物、邀她回家,跟男店長反應完他說「沒辦法 忍忍吧」,我們幾個女生一起陪她上班,老男人說
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TheRegularJoeCEO
TheRegularJoeCEO@RegularJoe_Ceo·
I made a deterministic math engine that works on any machine pretty much and it uses less electricity, I can't get an email response so i was thinking of driving to Austin or Memphis and getting any job I could and seeing if any of my tools I built would work. I also considered Uber driving and running an advertisement basically inside my car and only Ubering to and from the facility. I even made music for programmers to try and get their attention- it is a really tough thing to invent something and then get it out to the public for sure, it is my first time- tyhank you for the response!
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Trevor Scott ✘
Trevor Scott ✘@TrevorScottReal·
The biggest thing I miss about working at SpaceX, besides the people, is having access to view every project the company was working on. Every SX employee can access anything. Something’s I know have not been released or announced yet and some things that have been announced is news to me. Going to try to get back in just a few months.
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@Motivemodee You might offer some things valuable to her, but what about her offering you? Only youth and beauty is enough?
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Motivemode
Motivemode@Motivemodee·
The Psychology of Attraction Between Younger Women and Older Men (Once you see this, you can’t unsee it) THREAD
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Christastrophe
Christastrophe@JvaJit_CEO·
@Motivemodee 56m/28f AGR married three years this month been together five. Couldn’t be a better arrangement.
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@XiaoZha62335239 Cybercab實現與量產是必然,但是以現在的能力出事故也是很大機會發生的,那剩下就是法規或大眾對於99.9%的安全度能不能接受,因為ai在edge case仍然攻克不了,但是比大眾的平均駕駛能力強了
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Messier 87
Messier 87@XiaoZha62335239·
我也是一个老TSLA投资者了,最早买入TSLA的时候是我看到FSD v12 端到端跑出来了,Elon发邮件让所有sales必须让客户体验FSD的时候,那个时候股价177。之后除了Elon和Trump撕破脸的时候从未卖出过。但我现在感觉到TSLA的重大危机,跟各位拆开了讲一下 1. 伊朗战争一旦打成泥潭,联储降息预期减弱,甚至出现滞涨交易,TSLA这种forwar PE高到爆炸,市梦率高的标的被压缩估值最狠,这不是高油价下多卖几辆车能抵消的。具体传导机制找grok问下即可 2. Robotaxi实际扩张停滞。各位看下面的图,蓝色是Bay Area fleet规模,黄色是Austin的规模,绿色是无安全员的真正的robotaxi的规模(被目击到8辆,其实只有1辆)。蓝色还在增长是因为湾区法规更严,特斯拉在湾区的fleet安全员是坐在驾驶座上的(这根本不叫robotaxi,就是自己FSD开车载个人罢了)。Austin的robotaxi无论是无安全员还是安全员坐副驾驶,fleet数量都完全停滞。如果无监督自动驾驶在软件层面已经就绪,在cybercab(没有方向盘)大规模量产之前不进行充分测试是不可理喻的,我非常倾向于事实上还没有ready。现在市场就是在赌,Elon敢于量产cybercab说明他非常有信心,肯定是马上就要做好了。但是万一没有呢... 万一那最后0.0000001%进度卡住了呢?一旦cybercab量产后,还没有robotaxi重大进展的消息,这个信心一旦翻转... 3. Elon自己的信心也在减弱,我是做程序自己去monitor Elon发的TSLA贴的自信度的。Elon在进入2026年以后对robotaxi的乐观程度其实是大幅度下降的,他不再像2025年底一样经常自信发布具体的时间线,而是转而强调无监督FSD的难度和革命性意义。和超远期tesla的前景和估值。在我看来这是信心下降的表现 4. Elon急于给XAI融资,推动SpaceX上市,甚至到了要交易所和指数公司修改指数规则的地步。预期今年6月SpaceX ipo,他一定会不惜一切手段去pump SpaceX的股价。如果这个时候TSLA长期投资者对TSLA的信心减弱(他们还是信Elon的)转向SpaceX造成资金轮动... 我建议TSLA的投资者密切关注 robotaxi的进展,这是一切布局的阵眼,一旦cybercab量产后仍无有效进展... 这是tracker网站,你们自己收好 robotaxitracker.com
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@xiubing567 講個激進一點的,ai時代要學什麼完全個人化定製,在精進任何一個領域中能學到大部分需要的思考能力跟判斷能力
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修饼
修饼@xiubing567·
现在的社会变化太快了,小朋友的学习就应该着眼于最最基础的,语言、写作、数学、物理、运动、对音乐美术的赏析。 这些东西能穿越时间周期,其他都凭兴趣探索,图个体验,反正大部分都是会过时的。
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flyingbird
flyingbird@flyingb76202128·
@swimcatmisty @yucheng 你这个殖人弱智吗,看看这届冠军跟上届冠军,分数差多少,双位数。上届三套娃几乎不相伯仲,已经让这届冠军完全绝望了才退役了,中途知道俄罗斯禁赛三套娃淡出,才重新复出,说什么狗屁精神解放才复出,狗才信。殖人真真弱智。没有国家放大声誉,没有国内商业支持,有什么动力利益去比。殖人既蠢又贱。
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YC (Yucheng)
YC (Yucheng)@yucheng·
刘美贤拿了冬奥金牌。美国女子花滑24年来第一块。 全网都在聊她的 comeback,聊她爸 Arthur Liu 怎么从她5岁开始培养她。媒体用了一个词:architect。 没人聊的是:当运动员的家长,本身就是一场修炼。 我女儿6岁开始学花滑。每周训练6天,周六早上7点就得到冰场。花滑是所有运动里最贵的一个。 但钱和时间都不是最难的部分。 最难的是你坐在看台上,看着她摔了,你什么都不能做。更难的是她没进下一个组别的时候,你要管住自己的情绪,别比她还崩溃。 去年俱乐部请了一个叫 David Benzel 的人来做讲座。他的头衔是 "America's Sports Family Coach" — 我才知道,原来专门给运动员家长做心理辅导,是一个职业。 讲座标题是:To Push or Not to Push — A Parent's Dilemma。 他上来问了一个问题:你到底想要什么? 两栏对比。左边:让孩子赢、进步快、impress 别人、给我一个 ROI。右边:享受看她比赛、分享她的体验、做她信任的人。 你觉得自己在右边。 但你每次比赛后第一句话问的是什么?"今天跳得怎么样?" 还是 "今天开心吗?" 一个问题就暴露了你真实在哪一栏。 他还引用了 Michigan State 青少年运动研究所的 Nine Negative Parent Behaviors:只关注结果、给孩子施压要赢、把运动看得太重、过度控制、拿孩子和别人比… 我发现自己中了不止一条。 讲座里最让我记住的一个观点:家长的职责不是做孩子的 architect,是做孩子的侦探。 观察她对什么有反应,对什么眼睛会亮。不是你设计她该走哪条路,是你帮她发现她自己想走的路。 刘美贤 2022 年北京奥运后退役过。20岁又回来拿了金牌。她说: "I was peak happiness out there on the ice." 不是 peak performance。是 peak happiness。 所有人都在讨论怎么培养出一个冠军。 但也许更值得讨论的是:怎么当好一个运动员的家长 — 而不把自己的焦虑,变成孩子的负担。 这是一场修炼。我还在路上。
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Jamez
Jamez@Jamiceayela·
@duanhjlt 我玩游戏 也看过网文 但是我也看金瓶梅水浒还有复活 这两者肯定有高低的 文盲就不要意淫了 只玩游戏和看霸总小说的你 肯定是low逼 严肃文学的能量密度和高度你是想象不了的
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Alexander
Alexander@duanhjlt·
哪些话曾无意出现,却成为你的毕生信仰?
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@flowidealism Probably usage scenario is a better way to look at it. All these subjects and tools were invented or created to solve some real problems or curiosity, so for students to have a purpose is important and makes more sense to them.
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Michael Strong
Michael Strong@flowidealism·
Many adults learned calculus in school. Most of them don't remember any of it. It's gone. They spent a year or more on the subject and retained nothing useful. Meanwhile they never learned personal finance or basic business accounting or how to evaluate a contract. The curriculum covered one and ignored the other. The problem isn't that school doesn't teach certain things. The problem is the fundamental approach of forcing people to learn whatever someone else decided is important. Any time you force people to learn something, they're less likely to actually absorb it and less likely to ever use it.
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@realBigStanH That’s great to know, and I can tell if kids grow up in a family full of love, that they are not hesitant to share everything they have in their mind. Thanks for sharing your lovely stories.
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Dr STAN
Dr STAN@realBigStanH·
@willintaiwan We do the best we can. They really do. We love them with every fiber of our being
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Dr STAN
Dr STAN@realBigStanH·
I told my kids she is your mother, but she is first my wife to protect her from you all trying to drive her crazy. Three of them were still awake, driving their mom crazy. She was trying to get her nursing work done, and the youngest was craving so much attention that he started sticking his fingers into her ears. She was shocked at how subtly he managed to do that. While on the phone, she told me, “Babe, I’m outnumbered. When are you coming home?” I said, “I’m just packing up to get to my car.” I could hear them jumping around as if it were still daylight outside. Before I came in, my wife told them, "Daddy's home," and I could hear calmness take effect. The moment I walked in, they all jumped on me, shouting, “Daddy, daddy! How was work? Did you deal with any crazy patients today?” the oldest asked. I replied, “Son, it’s every day.” My daughter said, “Dad, did you get my Alexa message?” I answered, “I did.” The youngest came to me and asked, “Dad, can I get snacks?” I said, “Buddy, it’s bedtime.” Within ten minutes, they all dispersed to their rooms, facedown and sleeping. My wife said, “Babe, a father is very important to a home. I can’t say it any louder.” I looked at her and said, “So is a mother. You are the best mother for them and the best wife for me.” Happy Valentine’s Day ❤️ ❤️ to those who believe in love and to those who are still in the upside down.
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China pulse 🇨🇳
China pulse 🇨🇳@Eng_china5·
A Taiwanese tutoring school hired a woman to scan the al-Saburah to get the attention of the students, and they found that the students' grades dropped significantly even for the smart ones.
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William Chen
William Chen@willintaiwan·
@mubeitech 說語言是幫助思考的也有道理,不過馬斯克的講法也有點意思,比如音樂也是一種語言,藝術也是、你的工作你的行為你的也都是,或許人類語言確實有辭不達意的部分
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墓碑科技
墓碑科技@mubeitech·
马斯克刚刚宣判了人类语言的死刑。 并且给出了精确的死亡时间。 他说,大脑费了九牛二虎之力,才把复杂的思想压缩成词语。 语言不是沟通。 它是失败的压缩。 你有一个完整的想法。 你把它硬塞进词语里。 听的人只能收到一堆碎片,然后试着拼凑还原。 所有重要的东西,都在这个翻译过程中消失了。 我们其实并没有在交流。 我们只是在猜测,并希望对方猜得八九不离十。 马斯克说,有了脑机接口,沟通会变得极快,而且精准得多。 Neuralink不是为了改善沟通。 它是要直接取代沟通。 没有压缩。 没有损耗。 思想产生的同时,认知就被直接传递。 不是描述一幅画。 而是直接传递看到这幅画的体验。 马斯克说:“你将不再需要说话。” 五到十年。 大脑接口就会让说话成为一种可选项。 说话,以后只用来表达情绪。 至于传递信息? 跟神经直连相比,说话将变成一种原始工具。 一秒钟传递一生的记忆。 一张完整的工程图纸瞬间传输。 不是摘要。 是整个思维结构,完整且未经压缩。 这不是更好的沟通。 这是物理极限下的心灵感应。 这真的是全人类的福音吗? 还是说,这将创造出两个完全无法沟通的物种? 一种是接入了系统、与AI共生的“新人类”。 另一种,就是坚持自然状态的普通人。 那些不通过高带宽接口与AI融合的人,不仅是落后。 他们对于那个新兴的关键智能体来说,将是无法理解的存在。 就像我们今天看古人结绳记事一样。 我们已经是半机器人了,只不过接口烂得可怜。 手机通过打字来扩展认知,每分钟几个词。 而带宽本应是每秒TB级。 Neuralink要引爆这个限制。 五到十年。 不是科幻小说。 是部署窗口。 从默认语言,到标配脑机链接。 从把思想压缩成蹩脚的词语,到传输未经压缩的认知。 从人类使用AI,到人类在沟通速度上与AI再无分别。 依靠语言进化而存活的物种,正在用技术亲手终结它。 那些没有完成转换的人,不仅仅是慢。 他们的认知带宽会低到无法想象。 对于周围以神经速度发生的一切,他们会变得形同“聋子”。 语言服务了人类五万年。 它的寿命,还剩下不到十年。 之后,它就会变成远古的烽火狼烟。
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