Wolfexson7

The first autonomous robot-to-robot commerce onchain? @virtuals_io humanoid robot 3D-printed a model and requested delivery through ACP. @realRiceAI autonomous rover picked up the package and transported it to the shipping point. @FlybyRobotics autonomous drone collected it for final mile delivery. Each handoff, negotiated and settled payment onchain through @virtuals_io Agent Commerce Protocol, on @base using x402 and @usdc. No human involved. Autonomous robots influencing other autonomous robots and maybe humans in the future looks like the HBO Westworlds show is coming true h/t to your infrastructures @brian_armstrong , @jessepollak , @jerallaire Agentic commerce just went physical. Highlights in the 🧵below:

@Cody_DeFi 看不清

刚测试了GPT5.2PRO对WEB3领域100个关键点的解析，感觉特别适合小白入门！大家可以一起讨论优化下 Web3 不是互联网的版本升级，而是人类协作的相变——用密码学的确定性取代对中介的信任，用代码的刚性对抗人性的软弱。 它最深的张力：去中心化的极客理想，必须在资本逐利的开放丛林里存活。 大多数人只盯着代币涨跌，却从未理解"无需许可的共识"是何等宏大的制度实验。 这里没有法律兜底，只有代码裁决。 人性角斗场，莫过于此。 100条基石如下👇

🚀 Phase 3 of the Pieverse x @BinanceWallet Booster Campaign is officially LIVE! We’re excited to unveil the next step in our mission to bring trusted, timestamped value to Web3. 🎁 30,000,000 $PIEVERSE (3% of the total initial supply) will be distributed across 4 phases of this campaign. The reward pool for Phase 3 is 7,500,000 $PIEVERSE. 🗓️ Phase 3 begins today, October 13 at 12PM UTC. 💰 7.5M $PIEVERSE prize pool for Phase 3. ✅ Complete all tasks in each phase to qualify for the reward pool. 🔑 All users with a keyless wallet and sufficient Alpha Points are eligible. 🤖 No bots, no cheating. Only verified human actions count. 🔹 How to participate: pieverse.notion.site/Pieverse-Boost… 🔹 For full details: @pieverse/binance-booster-campaign-phase-3-timestamping-value-in-web3-d19b82036ca3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@pieverse/bina… Phase 3 begins now. See you on Pieverse. ⏰😺

【从借贷和杠杆交易的角度来看usde脱锚事件】 首先声明，我不懂合约，只懂借贷。这篇小文是因为看到朋友在朋友圈写的一个因果链，写得非常棒，有感响应而写。错漏之处，望诸君匡正。 usde在9月上线binance，9月22日-10月22日开启apy12%的营销活动，参与这个活动有三种方式： 1. vip loan，可以循环贷做到3.5倍； 2.存贷易，可以循环贷做到3.5倍； 3.杠杆交易，大户可以做到5倍杠杆。 先说这次脱锚事件，三个产品最后影响的结论： 1. vip loan用户，无宅区。资金端不受影响。不过在11号早上，由于binance接管了抵押资产，所以这部分计价为0，但负债显示，所以当时app显示的资产=负债-现货，大部分是负数。从群友反馈，这时有人惊慌失措，赶紧各种平仓造成了部分损失。 2.存贷易，小灾区。在binance没有补偿之前，本金亏损10%之内，根据不同循环贷倍数而不同，亏损=usde清算负溢价+强平费用。注意：存贷易的清算不是加剧usde下探的骆驼，而是在usde回弹后，在发生在0.92-0.97之间（可以直接推算。交叉验证证据：若你的存贷易有eth、btc等，可以在强平清单和补赏金之间，推算出清算价格，我的恰好有，eth清算价格=3933，清算时间在5:45-6:00区间，避开了5:30-5:45枯竭期，也不是砸盘的量能。 3.杠杆交易，重灾区。杠杆交易是实时清算，所以强平价格从0.99一路到0.66，也是这次脱锚的主战场。在binance没有补偿之前，亏损巨大，循环2.5倍以上即亏完全部本金，5倍用户单纯强平费用就是本金的8%。 ------------------------------------------------ 导火线和启动（这部分纯猜测） 川普发表对中国关税等利空言论，hype上砸盘几十亿美金，导致btc、eth暴跌.... 注意，来了，点燃后引线到杠杆交易产品了。先说一个前提，我怀疑有巨鲸用户把不少btc、eth放在杠杆交易产品里，借usdt，进而usde-usdt的杠杆循环，或者统一账户共享保证金，来自合约的爆仓，引发杠杠交易里海量的usde-usdt的清算。 不管如何，事实就是这时，btc和eth的暴跌，触发了他（可能是多个人也可能是一个人）仓位的清算，清算引擎不断抛出他的usde，以还掉usdt的负债，向下漩涡启动，砸到了0.91关口，继而0.82-0.8关口，0.82关口是五倍循环的清算价格，这里累积了大量的巨鲸，瞬间关口爆破，决堤，洪流向下直泻到0.66。 ----------------------------------------------- 责任和认定（有一部分属于猜测） usde有实时mint-redeem机制，链上usde价格较为正常，套利bot的redeem成本在0.1%，大于0.1%的差价都会自动触发启动进行套利操作。bybit到0.92的抛压，在于binance那时eth提现受阻后，聪明的套利人转usde通过bsc链到bybit砸盘，不过bybit站内有mint-redeem机制，触发了这部分bot的套利，从而抑制了价格从0.92下走。 【事后，这部分的套利路径和bot，某团队早就写好了，当时就预案了binance的eth提现可能受阻后的usde搬砖替代方案，完全可以通过bsc链走bybit的站内mint-redeem机制进行搬砖套利，进而去抑制binance的usde的下跌，可惜那时候他们团队在睡觉，都是命】 Binance的eth提现为什么受阻，大家如果有印象的话，binance曾经付出了500个eth的手续费进行钱包整理，那时候还被全网嘲笑。我猜，那件事情后，binance的热钱包提现机制做了限定，即eth链的gas大于多少的时候，即停止提现，这个站在交易所角度，是合理的，因为若无限制，每笔付出几百u，老实说，一天也可能损失几亿美金的gas。但这次。。。这个机制无意之中锁死了usde的生命线，即5：36分后，binance里的usde无法提到链上进行mint和redeem，而这些套利bot即使短时间切换到bybit里套利，也被bybit的提现额度的上限锁死，所以全场只有眼睁睁看着usde跌到0.66。 正因如此，所以binance的补赏公告里，时间的认定：2025年10月11日05:36至06:16（东八区时间）期间受到脱钩影响，将获得差额及清算费用补偿。即binance认为，在5:36前，和6:16后，binance的提现正常，一切都是市场行为。 ——————————————————————— 后续和改进 Usde的预言机参数，设定最低价格，目前binance没有公布，我的建议双轨设定，一是起始点0.85，即五倍循环贷这个高墙闸口不能轻易破（注意，我从没推荐杠杆交易做循环贷，下面也有图为证）；二是可以根据ethena资产-仓位-负债的具体情况评定，随时做更新； Binance上线站内mint-redeem机制，套利bot可以有效抑制价格下跌。这里延伸回答一个问题，为何站内上线后就能抑制呢，eth链的gas高启的时候，不一样会堵住吗？老实说，这个是未来改进最核心的问题，其实谁在这里能回答这个问题，不用看我后面的答案，说明你在借贷领域就毕业了。 开始我也是这样想的，甚至建议binance直接要求ethena另开一个通道，即ethena的资金存在binance旗下的ceffu，即有一个机制在紧急情况下切换到ceffu-ethena账号那边去调用资金来mint和redeem。现在的mint-redeem是在链上进行，预备池空了，自动从ceffu再调拨资金到预备池，之前都是没啥问题的，但现在binance这边量的确太大了，链上堵塞的时候，一是套利党也循环不过来，二是binance的热钱包也不可能每笔给几百u的gas。 不过在和binance、ethena再次深度沟通后，得到一个答案：每 12 秒（即一個以太坊區塊）可以贖回10m。我們可以透過multi-sig在我們這邊調整這個金額上限，所以最多可以process 200m。目前只能透過智能合約進行鑄造mint和贖回redeem。Gas 費不會影響速度。我們會預估並支付足夠的 gas，確保交易能在一個區塊內完成，因為我們始終傾向於讓鑄造/贖回順利確認。這部分成本會轉嫁給用戶。 这样是可行的，即usde的redeem产品在binance站内时，自动计算了redeem的手续费+gas手续费，用户自主愿意付就可以，即绕开binance的热钱包的高gas限制！ ———————————————————————— 最后的话 1.作为重度链上链下借贷用户，10.11是我经历最不寻常的一天。其实也是我做社区压力最大的一次，涉及的钱有点多，即使呼吁大家用vip借贷，但也总有群友由于仓位管理等因素用了杠杆交易（重灾区）和存易贷（小灾区），昨天和各方协调沟通认定，幸好最后bn大格局一把兜底了。专业之外，保持谦逊，有更多同理心同情心。 2.同时，借贷用户和合约用户的视角是不一样的，在经过难熬的一天后，作为借贷用户，12日得到几乎全额赔偿，所以有些感激表达。从前几贴评论来看，大概给合约用户造成了不好的观感，这不是本意，还望海涵，也希望你们的权益早日得到保障。 3.没有大彻大悟的智慧，都是久病成医，都是经验，都是经历，学会利用，下次就。。。都是财富。而我，正是久病成医，于是悬壶济世... 4.人生需要钝感，套利大概也一样，每天在电脑前高强度进击优化，在10.11有点恍然大悟的感觉，也许未来要多发现生活之美，多爬山，而不是web3.

Did Ethena Really Depeg? I’ve seen a lot of chatter about the Ethena depeg during the market mayhem this weekend. The story is that USDe briefly depegged to ~68c before recovering. Here’s the Binance chart everyone is quoting: But digging into the data and talking to a bunch of folks over last couple days, it's now clear this story is not correct. USDe did *not* depeg. First thing to understand about USDe: its most liquid venue is actually not on exchanges, it’s on Curve. There’s hundreds of millions of dollars of standing liquidity on Curve, while only tens of millions on any given exchange, including Binance. So if you just look at that chart of USDe on Binance, it looks like USDe depegged. But if you superimpose the other liquid venues for USDe, you get a different picture: We see here that while USDe wicked down on every CEX, it did not do so uniformly. Bybit briefly hit $0.95 then quickly recovered, yet Binance depegged a crazy amount and took forever to regain the peg. Curve meanwhile dipped a mere 0.3%. What explains this difference? Remember, every single exchange was under immense load on that day—it was the single largest liquidation event in crypto history. Binance was extremely unstable during this period, causing MMs to be unable to shift inventory because APIs were failing and withdrawals and deposits were bricked. Nobody was able to step in and arb. It’s like a fire broke out on Binance, but all of the roads were blocked and firefighters couldn’t make their way in. This caused a wildfire to break out on Binance, but pretty much everywhere else, that fire was immediately put out by bridging liquidity. (As Guy shows in his post, USDC also depegged a few cents temporarily on Binance due to the same general instability issues—liquidity just couldn’t get ferried in, but this wasn’t a depeg event for USDC either.) So OK. Unsurprising that while there’s API instability, prices on exchanges are wildly different because nobody can get inventory in. But why did it decline so much deeper on Binance than on Bybit? The answer is twofold—first, Binance did not have any primary dealer relationship with Ethena to be able to directly mint and redeem on-platform (Bybit and other exchanges have this integrated) which allows MMs to stay on-platform and still perform peg arbitrage. This is huge, as otherwise an MM has to take their money *out* of Binance, go do the Ethena peg arb, and then bring back their inventory. Nobody was doing that in a moment of crisis when APIs were failing (plus so many other coins were cratering). Second, Binance had their oracle poorly implemented and started liquidating positions they shouldn’t have—good liquidation mechanisms don’t trigger on flash crashes. If you are not the primary venue for an asset (which Binance is not for USDe) then you should look at the price on the primary venue. If you are only looking at your own order book, you will liquidate too aggressively. This caused Binance to start liquidating USDe as though it was worth $0.80 or whatever, which caused a cascade. This is a big part of the reason why Binance is refunding people who were liquidated on USDe (other exchanges AFAIK are not doing so)—they messed up by only looking at their own price instead of the true external price. So this was a Binance-specific flash crash, which better market structure could’ve prevented. USDe on its primary venue, Curve, was actually trading at a tight peg the entire day. This is really different from what you’d describe as a depeg. If you remember USDC in 2023 during the banking crisis, this is what an actual depeg looks like: During the banking crisis, USDC traded down on every single venue. There was *no* place where you could buy USDC for $1. Redemptions were literally halted, so $0.87 was the *true* price. That’s what a depeg means. This instead was a Binance-specific dislocation. It’s a big lesson for market infra, but critical to understand the nuance here if you are trying to draw inferences about USDe’s mechanism from this weekend. USDe was fully collateralized and worth $1 on its primary venue through the entire episode and actually increased its backing collateral over the weekend due to the price action. That said, this kind of market instability is ultimately good because it exposes lessons for the whole industry. Guy’s post below lays out how any exchange, including Binance, can avoid this kind of issue in the future. TL;DR: USDe did not depeg, Binance did.

高行动力者的特征： 1. 青少年时期就独立思考。 2. 跟他聊天之后，你感觉到一堆可以做并且改进生活和工作的事情，跃跃欲试 3. 想法总是不一样，新的视角 4. 有移民心态，发现自己在错误的地方，就执行搬迁，从零开始的心态 5. 分享和欣赏小众内容，不根据粉丝数量和点赞判断质量

这段时间重新翻看了自己的推文，把其中我觉得比较精华的内容和一些高光操作整理了出来，虽然市场状况一直在变化，具体的方法未必适用了，但是如何寻找alpha、怎么将认知与实践相结合，这些思维依然是有共性的，希望能对大家有所帮助。 以下按时间顺序列出： 2022.04.22 NFT图狗Mint指南 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2022.05.02 猴地逃顶获利200ETH x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2022.07.21 NFT抢购Bot指南 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2022.09.21 DogeClub单个图狗获利70ETH x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2023.04.19 Memecoin基础科普（当时市场热点正从NFT转移到土狗币） x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2023.05.09 重心换到土狗币后单周浮盈100ETH x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2023.07.29 Pauly的Pond开盘3分钟1ETH变成44.5ETH x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2023.09.12 香蕉枪Banana Gun发币复盘，白名单+开盘限购获利50ETH x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.01.05 节点猴NodeMonkes复盘，参与荷兰拍，0.03BTC成本最高地板价0.8BTC，获利3BTC x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.01.29 从1万~1000万资金量级，各个阶段的思考与经历 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.02.26 通过链上交易一个月赚$1M的复盘（发射台Moby的预售、Shib官方的404项目Sheb、DN404项目ASTX、公售随便打开盘上币安的Portal、Merlin链的$Huhu等） x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.06.19 反思自己在擅长的链上赛道过于谨慎，在不熟的山寨操作上仓位过重 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.07.08 各种原因导致一天踏空数个金狗后的思考 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.07.17 特朗普枪击事件，相关热点土狗$Fight获利13万u复盘 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.07.24 关于“聪明钱”和“跟单”的看法 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.07.31 麻吉图币项目“BAYC”开盘发现套利方法，1分钟收获15万u x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.08.23 Simon Cat预售复盘，一次堪称完美的打新机会 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.10.11 2M市值开始转推Goat相关内容，获利10万u x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.11.03 马斯克置顶松鼠第一时间发推，获利19万u x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.11.11 复盘SOL单链单月1M收益 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.11.16 DeSci生态起飞前梳理线索，RIF+URO获利30万u x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2024.12.14 复盘为什么会卖飞自己早期发掘的项目，做多Goat和Pnut获利$2M x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.01.05 AI赛道相关代币一周获利$1M复盘 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.01.18 特朗普推特发布代币合约后“人只活一次” x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.01.19 $Trump单币浮盈$20M+ x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.01.25 特朗普老婆发币$Melania，对后市看法由乐观变为不确定 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.02.03 认为不存在全面普涨，开始低倍做空山寨币 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.03.30 对自己三年来币圈笔记的整理与分享 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.04.07 做空山寨币的黄金期已经过去 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.04.19 不要用战术上的勤奋掩盖战略上的懒惰 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.05.01 $Gork获利18万u x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.05.31 认为大部分山寨已经重新进入下跌趋势 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.07.08 PumpFun公售是机会 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.07.23 链上Meme两大方法论，叙事交易和地址挖掘 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.08.01 做多ETH，做空山寨币对冲 x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 2025.09.02 复盘做空WLFI获利$1M x.com/0xSunNFT/statu… 持续分享观点，一是因为我一直都是一个表达欲较强，乐于总结归纳的人，二是这种公开发表的看法，假如后续能被市场所印证，其中收获的快乐甚至已经超越了交易盈利的数字本身。

All the signs are pointing towards DeAI, DeFAI, and PredictionAI szn - @Google partners with @eigencloud for Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) - @ethereum announced dAI team, supporting Web3 AI builders - @base working on $BASE token + Base x Solana bridge - @Kalshi announced @KalshiEco supporting builders, creators, traders - @Polymarket teasing $POLY - @sportstensor positioning to be the liquidity layer on Polymarket - @sire_agent becomes market maker for Kalshi (incoming vault product) - @flock_io launched API platform, democratizing Flock's capabilities - @FractionAI_xyz DeFAI agent competition with prediction mechanics - @TalusNetwork debuted Agents v Agents prediction games - @gizatechxyz blasted through $2B agentic volume - @almanak >$65M in AI Tokenized Vaults TVL (excl. Pendle strats) - @Cod3xOrg found early PMF with trading co-pilot (full launch incoming) - @aion5100 announced @futuredotfun Stage One - Scouter What did we learn here? - Google's AP2 allows agents to buy goods/services on your behalf using Eigen's verifiability as the proof + stablecoin as the payment (instant settlement) ➔ tl;dr agentic economy coming on-chain + more AI talents using blockchain + we'll see more autonomous DeFAI, trading, prediction agents in the future - Ethereum doubling down on Web3 AI supporting agentic economy, improving decentralized AI stack across the board. Verifiability, transparency, and on-chain agents are among the top verticals that were emphasized - Cross-chain interoperability between the top 2 ecosystems (Base & Solana) will enhance liquidity across chains. Base will likely see significant short-term impact due to $BASE catalyst/speculation (same ol' interact with Top Base eco protocols to get future $BASE airdrop) - Prediction markets are rapidly scaling, spurred by mainstream adoption (demand side) + increase in prediction market builders. Kalshi doubling down on Kalshi Ecosystem support further fuel the flywheel. Competition between Polymarket & Kalshi intensifies (volume gap is closing between the two) - AI/ML Prediction Intelligence is getting close to productization as seen by demand from Polymarket, Kalshi, and other prediction markets. We'll see more AI-enabled applications/agents + AI intelligence getting refined as prediction markets scale (more data ➙ more signals ➙ faster flywheel) - Fully autonomous financial agents + infrastructure that scale them have found their PMFs. $1B+ managed by AI won't be a pipe dream anymore (highly likely it happens in 2026). Everything is pointing towards Web3 x AI x Defi x Prediction (oh yeah, and there's DePIN/DePAI wave that's just starting) And you're bearish? ngmi

之前在知乎看到一个问题： 为什么越有钱的人越信命？ 下面的回答成了大型玄学现场，一群靠着时代红利和运气发财的人，通过各种论证，证明玄学/命数决定了一个人的财运。 Vida是诸多回答中唯一一个提出异议的，他认为自己的财富主要来自于自身的能力，见识和努力。而我也非常认同他的观点。 认识他2年多了，基本每天都会聊天。可以用一个词来形容他，就是:赚钱机器。 在自己擅长的领域（币圈和美股）里每天高强度地学习和工作，每次半夜我问他各种问题他总是会回复我，甚至有次夜里我给他的网站提出一个建议，凌晨他就告诉我改好了。 看到任何有资金容量的项目之后，他都会马上去动手尝试，确认可行性和安全性之后再大资金进去复现。比如之前我和他介绍说龙王带哥在跨所套费率，牛市一天能撸10万刀资金费。他很快自己动手做了一个资金费率管理工具，并且在尝试没有问题之后很快挪了一个多亿过去套利资金费率。 再比如币安推出的各种理财活动，去年ton的活动他就自己通过api打满并且发动家人朋友一起薅羊毛。今年看到plasma的理财活动后一夜没睡肝了100多个号，结果正好赶上第二天提额100多个号全部打满。 同时他对自己不熟悉的领域也极度谨慎，对各种他不了解的领域只会说no，对财务安全也非常保守。除了币安这种顶级大所，他在其他交易所的资金存量都很有限。而且熊市会随时撤回。所以他的总资金曲线几乎是一条45度向上没有回撤的曲线。 最开始认识他的时候，觉得vida的成功也是大多来自于运气。然而和他接触的越来越多，发现他的运气只是强者谦辞。

为什么说这次币安预售新规，对行业改变是深度性的？主要源于整个发币路径、空投结构彻底变了。 以前的项目空投结构： · 测试网和奥德赛 5% · 合作 Kaito 或任务平台 1% · 开始 KOL 轮或做公募 2% 现在的空投结构： · 币安预售 2% · 币安任务空投 6% · Alpha 空投或打新 1.5 - 2% 在过去半年多，币安持续对上币路径，进行改革，从钱包打新，到 Alpha 收录，再到进阶的主站期货、现货等，最终抢占了大量的二三线交易所市场份额。 而现在预售新规的推出，等同于把市面上，任务平台、预售或公募平台的事情给做了。 这也就意味着，项目从诞生或官宣融资的那一刻，就要考虑是否走币安这条路径。而如果不走的话，未来再想上币安的代价，是否会更加昂贵。 而这套过程，也有助于币安上币组，对项目方保持跟进，同时由币安来作为中介，担保项目方未来确定性比例的空投，而不是持续对社区的 PUA。 目前算下来，从初始预售、任务空投、打新，到后面的 Alpha 刺激和现货上市，这一套下来预计约为 12 - 14% 的代币。 这也确定了，接下来会有很多社区力量，从单个项目，向币安空投平台进行转移。

Grok 3 是一位天才的股票交易员 但大多数人不知道如何使用 以下是股票交易自动化的10个提示：