JoshWoz

@PlusEVAnalytics Yea. I'm just missing it. I dont see how your approach takes opponent or anything else into account, it just uses season averages for two components and then makes up the 3rd based on those first two. It takes the ratio between the averages into account which is good I suppose.

@woz3rd Stats from an average game dont necessarily apply to this specific game in this specific situation against this specific opponent

Bet Bash BONUS: The Triple Poisson Model for Basketball Player Scoring – Plus EV Analytics plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2024/08/10/bet…

@PlusEVAnalytics I don’t have answer. We talking quasi-live (like during the halftime break) or pregame? Would assume you need to account for anticipated rotations either way which makes modeling exponentially more difficult vs team level imo.

I realize I might not get a good answer to this or perhaps any answer at all, but I’ll try anyway. How sharp are NBA 2H markets?

@d_feustel Roster age

If you're modeling NCAAB, what features do you throw into your model that are not player/team stats from a game? Something not in the box-score, or directly derived from box scores?

@truepokerjoe Also. This should be on @Gingfacekillah original post. Not @truepokerjoe’s response. But I’m too lazy to retype it.

@truepokerjoe Of course Vegas doesn’t actually “know” anything. It sort of depends on who is speaking the statement as to whether we need to bother with correcting it. Idk. This market efficiency thing doesn’t seem particularly ground breaking to me.

@NBAonTNT what is this jam that’s playing going into commercial breaks?

@truepokerjoe Curious to hear your thoughts on this @truepokerjoe

@RomeenSheth This is a great thread. The closing tweet encouraging people to follow you in twitter has some hilarious irony to it though.

If you enjoyed this thread, give me a follow: @RomeenSheth I grew my bootstrapped business to $50M+, brought in private equity and am now in the next leg of the journey. I share my learnings along the way.

I talked to a super smart 20 year old this week. All the potential in the world, but had a major major flaw in his thinking. This flaw is becoming the most common mistake I am seeing young people make early in their career. Let's break it down:

@NBAMemes Naw. That’s about the right amount of disrespect.

The Russell Westbrook disrespect is going too far 🤦‍♂️

@SalVetriDFS This is absolutely idiotic.

@PlusEVAnalytics @capjack2000 @RufusPeabody How much does it pay?

If someone could scrape the data for me, I could probably do a decent job of reverse engineering some of these SGP pricing algos. @capjack2000 @RufusPeabody

@d_feustel I support you not sharing anything!

A final conflict. If I write, I potentially destroy. If I discuss something +EV that no one is doing, I might ruin it. But no one else is doing it. How do you share ideas with bettors but not their opponents? If a book burns down something no one was doing, no good was done.

I write in an irrational internal conflict. Is this content original enough and good enough to release? Contrasted with am I a moron to publish? Working on Chapter XX. Answer key vs NCAAF Team Totals. How many original thoughts make a book good? (1)

@Gingfacekillah @darjohn25 It really sucks that this artificially lowers the overall rating for your excellent books. I will say that people who are both 1) unable to figure it out and 2) unwilling/incapable of reaching out for help don’t stand a chance anyways but a shame it affects your book’s ratings.

How to Download Excel Model Sheets for Statistical Sports Models in Excel Books 1 & 2: Step 1: Buy SSME 1, 2 or both on Amazon. Step 2: Locate the download chapter in the table of contents. 1/n

@Brady_Mc @BillSimmons Had this exact thought.

@BillSimmons Was this an attempt at a Trump tweet?

Not surprised Dallas is playing well. But Phoenix absolutely sucking like this? Surprising!

Modern NBA in a nutshell. Getting the call more important than actually getting the rebound.

@Degen4Plen @checkshoved @DonBestSports Datafeeds.net (formally cheapdatafeeds.net) was on the right path and was then bought by OddsJam which offers a bullshit service and cranked the price to like $1k a month. But its not that hard of a business to replicate. Just need to put a good team together.

@checkshoved @DonBestSports How has someone not come up with a better/more reliable product at this point?

@WozSquad @ChimborazoES We need more adults who focus this well.

These are some #hardworking #4thgraders and I’m so #proud

@PlusEVAnalytics Most profitable 10 min read ever. Great stuff.

Did someone say shortened season?? analytics.bet/articles/to-th…