CrashBandicoot

@hey_itsmyturn Now with additional cuck chairs

Qatar offers extra all-inclusive, happy-ending-included spa vouchers for Araghchi and Ghalibaf to compensate the US strike on IRGC terror positions in southern Iran.

@Alihashem Why not all Lebanon?

An Iranian official source told me Tehran has warned Washington that any Israeli attacks on Beirut or the southern suburbs would seriously jeopardize ongoing efforts to end the war, and could derail the diplomatic track altogether.

@IRIMFA_SPOX MOGGED

در دیدار با دکتر موسی موسوی، نماینده حوزه مهر و #لامرد در مجلس شورای اسلامی، در جریان بخشی از جزئیات جنایت هولناک آمریکا در حمله موشکی به یک سالن ورزشی در شهر لامردِ استان فارس قرار گرفتم. عصر روز شنبه، ۹ اسفند ۱۴۰۴؛ همان روزی که دانش‌آموزان مدرسه «شجره طیبه» #میناب با سه موشک تاماهاوک به خاک و خون کشیده شدند، منطقه‌ای مسکونی در شهر لامرد، شامل یک سالن ورزشی، نیز با چهار موشک موسوم به PrMS مورد هدف قرار گرفت. در پی انفجار این موشک‌ها، ۲۴ نفر، از جمله یک دختربچه دوساله، چند نوجوان والیبالیست و چندین زن و مرد بی‌گناه، به شهادت رسیدند. بیش از ۱۳۰ نفر نیز مجروح شدند که شمار قابل‌توجهی از آنان دچار معلولیت دائمی شده‌اند. این موشک‌ها پیش از برخورد به هدف، در هوا منفجر شده و به بیش از ۱۸۰ هزار ترکش متشکل از ساچمه‌های تنگستن تبدیل شدند؛ ترکش‌هایی که با سرعت و قدرت بسیار زیاد در همه جهات پراکنده شدند. این حمله، ناشی از اشتباه نبود؛ اکنون دیگر هیچ تردیدی وجود ندارد که ارتش آمریکا این نوع موشک‌ها را برای نخستین‌بار با هدف آزمایش میزان قدرت تخریب آن‌ها به سوی یک منطقه مسکونی و سالن ورزشی در شهر لامرد شلیک کرده است. این اقدام، جنایتی جنگی، شنیع و نابخشودنی است و آمران و عاملان آن باید در هر محکمه صالحی تحت پیگرد کیفری قرار گیرند. مردم ایران یاد و نام هم‌میهنان شهید لامردی را برای همیشه به خاطر خواهند سپرد؛ و هیچگاه این جنایت شنیع را نه فراموش می‌کنند و نه می‌بخشند.

@Alihashem There is no way Trump agreed to that

According to my sources, the draft proposal that’s supposed to be finalised include: -End of war on all fronts including Lebanon -Freeing several billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds -Lifting the U.S. naval blockade and opening the strait of Hormuz -Withdrawal of American forces from the immediate vicinity of Iran After this, the parties will have 30 days to agree on the nuclear issue. These 30 days can be extended by mutual agreement. During these thirty days, passage will be facilitated through the strait. According to Iran, management of the Strait of Hormuz will be an Iranian-Omani issue, and is being negotiated with Muscat.

@DefenceGeek At least he is actually participating in high level negotiations. You are just larping as intelligence officer

Why is Witkoff even still anywhere near these negotiations... the man's a complete and utter fool! If the US is letting him continue with negotiations they might as well surrender and give Iran a blank cheque...

@IceFrosst 💯

@wumpafroot we need to lock in harder

$2.3k to $75k in 2 hours Some guy literally did 25x in hours. I literally saw the announcement source dropped in the comments, but didn't click on it. Entered trade only after it started moving big. Regardless if I did it or not, it proves that there are huge opportunities on @Polymarket.

@FiatElpis @Alihashem Yes, however it's not a new order but position determined a while ago

@Alihashem he's actually confirming the report then ? because you are saying all iran is offering is downblending... not removal

A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal” The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said.

@AimenDean We got midwit moment here

There is a genuinely bizarre psychological dynamic unfolding right now around this war. Trump appears convinced that the war is unpopular at home, that Americans want out, and that domestic priorities must now take precedence - even if that means accepting a deal that, only weeks ago, would have looked humiliating by American standards. Remember where this started: “unconditional surrender” for Iran. Now? If the current trajectory continues - with Tehran refusing compromise on the nuclear file, ballistic missiles, proxies, and now effectively trying to invent a new doctrine around controlling the Strait of Hormuz - we could end up watching something that looks disturbingly like unconditional surrender… but for the US! And here’s the irony that’s frying my brain right now: Even some of the people inside the US political circles who opposed the war are suddenly horrified at the prospect of a half-finished war. Because an unfinished war is not “peace.” A half-finished war risks looking like strategic exhaustion. It risks damaging American prestige, deterrence, and by extension the credibility of the “mighty” dollar itself. People forget something very important: America First at home only works if America remains first abroad. The dollar is not magic paper blessed by the gods of Wall Street. It sits on three pillars: reserve currency status, energy trade dominance, and global trade settlement. Those pillars are reinforced when the United States projects global military strength and reliability. Ironically, during the war itself, you saw parts of the market reacting exactly to that logic: commodities wobbling, safe-haven psychology shifting, the dollar strengthening because global markets still instinctively run toward American power in moments of crisis. So now we arrive at the weirdest part of all: Trump, fearing the war is unpopular, may have accidentally made it more popular by appearing too eager to leave it unfinished. Because suddenly people are imagining the consequences of an Iran that is eschatologically and fanatically emboldened after surviving the confrontation - thinking the “unseen divine hands of the hidden Imam Mahdi” did it - while still threatening the arteries of the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz. And this is where my brain officially melts.🫠 Was this deliberate? Was this the madman theory? Was it incoherent incoherence? Or coherent incoherence designed to create maximum unpredictability? Did Trump intentionally manufacture uncertainty to pressure Tehran? Or are we all collectively trying to reverse-engineer strategy out of chaos because nobody actually knows what’s happening? At this point, I genuinely need a whole liter of Coke Zero and a whiteboard the size of the Sahara just to map the psychology of this thing. Thank you all for following this utterly insane geopolitical soap opera with me. I still can’t decide whether we are witnessing strategic genius, strategic improvisation, or history’s first case of weaponized confusion as a doctrine of statecraft.🤦🏻‍♂️

@DefenceGeek If it's from publicly available sources you can just tell us BOZO

Passing 24hrs and the "leak" of sorts is still open... Either CENTCOM doesn't care... or they're still oblivious...

@bubblemaps @Polymarket Well, if you want accurate predictions, insider trading should be allowed

It's our wildest finding on Polymarket so far Potentially another big military insider And yet, we do not blame Polymarket In fact we APPLAUD them The only reason investigations like this are possible is because @Polymarket chose radical transparency Everything is onchain: > every trade > every profit > every timestamp > every connection > where profits move > where funds come from That level of transparency is UNPRECEDENTED in finance Most other prediction markets are opaque. The only thing you see is what they choose to show you. This keeps them out of the spotlight Insider trading happens all the time, especially in traditional finance. We're just blind to it What makes Polymarket different is that anyone can investigate it independently. It's not a bug, it's a feature (as they say) The conversation should shift from: “why are there insiders on Polymarket?” to: “how do we mitigate insider activity in transparent markets?”

@AnselFang I wonder if liquidity is there. For UFC props it’s almost non existent

才发现polymarket上的英雄联盟比赛多了很多新的选项了，蛮有意思的，包括一血大龙什么的都能预测了。玩法又多了很多。

@IRIMFA_SPOX Why population of your advanced civilization is cut off from the internet?

A civilization that proves incapable of solving the problems it creates is a decadent civilization; A civilization that chooses to close its eyes to its most crucial problems is a sick civilization; A civilization that plays fast and loose with its principles is a dying civilization; … increasingly, it takes refuge in a hypocrisy which is all the more odious because it is less and less likely to deceive. Aimé Césaire Discourse on Colonialism

@ThePowerAudit Chris, an LLM will agree with whatever idea you want to entertain. Think about that when writing or doing research, or you might end up drinking your own Kool Aid too much

A package deal of NVIDIA chips for an oil easement on Iran and rare earth access could be on the table. The deal on paper: US gives: NVIDIA chip access (restricted tiers, not full cutting-edge, but enough to matter) Hormuz pressure release (blockade eased, DFC architecture stays but traffic resumes once IRGC is replaced or fully surrenders) China gives: Rare earth cooperation (processing access, export license normalization) Iran abandoned (stops buying sanctioned oil, abstains or doesn't veto UNSC resolution, pressures Tehran to accept terms) Neither side says out loud: Taiwan status quo locked in for the duration The energy chokepoint leverage stays in place as implicit deterrent The DFC tollbooth is permanent architecture regardless of deal The concern with selling NVIDIA is that it accelerates Chinese military AI and threatens Taiwan. That is real. But consider what the US gets if China surrenders Iran. The US just demonstrated it can shut down a strait and choke a nation's oil exports to zero. China is bearing the brunt of that. China imports 70% of its oil, most of it passing through two chokepoints the US Navy controls: Hormuz and Malacca. If China walks away from Iran and accepts a US-led Hormuz architecture, the US locks in permanent energy leverage over China's economy. That leverage IS the Taiwan deterrent. China cannot invade Taiwan if the US can cut off its oil in response. No amount of AI chips changes that math. NVIDIA gives China a tactical tool. Gulf energy hegemony gives the US a strategic chokepoint over their entire economy. Strategic beats tactical. Selling the chips becomes acceptable when you have locked in the bigger lever. The shelf life on this leverage is 10 to 15 years before Chinese energy diversification erodes it. That means the window to make this deal is now, while the chokepoint pressure is at maximum and the US can use the time to build alternative rare earth supply chains. You cannot get something from nothing in a negotiation. The question is whether what you get is worth what you give. In this case, the math says yes.

@PMTraderAdam @FundingPredicts Well, account creation doesn't work. At least for me.

I'm definitely very excited for the future of prediction markets and the infra around it I've chatted quite a bit with the team at @FundingPredicts & I really like the vision for their product As more money comes into prediction markets & liquidity increases, prop firms are one of the logical next steps They currently have a promo with the beta to earn cash prizes and a free account Looking forward to what the team has in store!

@AhdathA89971 “the enemy” - source Mohammed So and So

@ahmadslmanx “The enemy” lol

🚨عاجـــــــــــــــل في بندر عباس ،الأجزاء التجارية من رصيف "بهمن" قد استُهدفت خلال تبادل إطلاق النار بين القوات المسلحة الإيرانية والعدو

@AxiosComms @BarakRavid Such an unsophisticated grift

💪 “Axios has particularly made the running with reporting of the Iran war during which correspondent @BarakRavid has become a one-man scoop machine specialising in exclusive updates on peace negotiations and the diplomatic process.”

@KhamisOAlAli Or a deranged truth social post from Trump. Can’t wait

لا يوجد حتى الآن أي تحديث أو تسريب إعلامي بشأن المفاوضات خلال الساعات الماضية. الأنظار تتجه الآن إلى أي منشور محتمل من ترامب، أو تقرير من أكسيوس أو غيرها من الشبكات الإعلامية، لمعرفة ما إذا كان هناك أي تطور جديد.

@KhamisOAlAli Yes, Axios. Trusted and unbiased source