顺其自然

@cherryPayment 嗯 多多讨论 IBKR大陆居民买不了台湾股票 太可惜了

@xray_crash 我用ibkr买了一些，我在写关于一些台股的报告了，到时候可以讨论，我也不太懂

4天时间，粉丝量从776上涨到1.7k！感谢大家的喜欢！ 阅读量也增加到了60万！ 谢谢大家！ 我会持续努力的！ 争取多发点能激起大家讨论的股票！ 也希望各位都赚钱！ YOLO！

@cherryPayment 一起学习 哈哈 你那边能买台湾股票吗 我最近看了很多台湾半导体制造股票 可惜在大陆没办法买到 没有权限 急死我了

@xray_crash 哈哈哈 我得多像他学习！我居住在美国

@L9FRIENDLYSTYLE @JonasEmre7 @aleabitoreddit 你好 德莱文

@JonasEmre7 @aleabitoreddit Oh yeah absolutely hes just helping the public

For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad. But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1. TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking) Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY), Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY). Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY) News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff. 1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines. -> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year. -> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter. So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off. However: Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal. Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something? Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment. 2. Order book "miss": "Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands." This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines. But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2. _ Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future. IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat. Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months. But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company. TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines. Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.

@BaldApeEx @qinbafrank 赞同 完全没有看到任何信号

@qinbafrank 拭目以待👌 未来，全世界的消费市场，都会先结构扭曲，再彻底萎靡。 只不过，CN 表现得尤为彻底和迅速。

再聊中美博弈的论持久战之战略相持期：G2的成形，这一次中美博弈升级以来个人对中美博弈后续的分析和推演大部分都得到了验证，10月12号这里x.com/qinbafrank/sta…聊到：这一次博弈升级是为了在元首会晤之前虚空造牌极限施压对方，要想元首会晤成形APEC峰会前双方大概率还有一次中美经贸会谈。最后也确实如此，双方25-26在马来西亚会谈顺利自然中美元首会晤也得以实现。 1、谈成了什么？ 这两天陆续披露了双方马来西亚会谈以及釜山元首会晤的内容，大体就是： 美方削减10%的芬太尼关税对应中国购买美国大豆等农产品； 美国实体清单出口管制的50%穿透原则暂停一年对应中国暂停稀土等矿产资源出口管制一年； 双方分别对对方24%的对等关税及反制关税均暂停一年； 双方对对方船舶收取的特别费用暂停一年； 其他的tiktok美国业务的交易继续进行，加强芬太尼禁毒合作等。 哪些地方没有谈成？ 芬太尼关税只取消一半； 美国对华芯片、芯片设计软件等限制也没取消，虽然松口让中国跟企业自己谈，但之后这方面估计还有很多摩擦存在； 上面暂停一年内美国对中国关税30%，中国对美国关税28%。 2、怎么看这次釜山会晤以及马来西亚会谈的成果： 如之前x.com/qinbafrank/sta…聊到的，中美马来西亚的会谈也只是一个阶段性的成果，并不是最终的协议。好的信号是：达成一个框架性协议，让中美元首得以在APEC峰会上能单独会晤，理性方向和顺序，这样为之后继续会谈奠定了更好的基调。 这次本质上是一份休战协议，划定了一年的休战期说实话能不能维持一年都不好说。 为什么休战？也是之前聊到的，对于现实的利益诉求和内部掣肘制约。 对美国来说：是内部票仓压力、通胀压力（完全脱钩无异于立马供给中断）、是想要重建供应链但是还需要很长时间立马脱钩产业重建将会被大大拖延、还想重政财政。 对中国来说：是经济压力（消费、基建、外贸三驾马车，消费还是疲软还在刺激的关口，基建其实相比之前萎缩很多、那么外贸更不能崩掉），是产业与技术突破还需要时间（中国知道美国想要遏制中国产业升级，所以全力推动产业技术突破当时突破也需要时间）。 当下双方都有拿捏对方的底牌，所以就是打而不破。所以这并非和解，而是一种现实的选择：竞争博弈仍在，但彼此都在努力让它未来一段时间（希望是一年）保持在可管理范围之内。 3、以时间换空间的加速补短板 双方都知道脱钩是必然，也都清楚最深层矛盾不可调和，但现实又不得不休战。那么这个休战期就是一个加速补短板的蓄力期。 1）美国补什么短板？ 补关键矿产资源和工业基础设施的短板 这一次川普亚太之行，先后与澳大利亚在1签署稀土开发协议、特朗普到访日本，双方签署了一项框架协议意在“协助两国实现关键矿产和稀土供应链的韧性和安全、与泰国签署了关于“全球关键矿产供应链多元化和促进投资合作”备忘录，包括协助泰国开采稀土和拥有优先投资权。 试图打造美国版的稀土联盟， 跟日本和韩国相继明确了贸易协议日韩投资美国的具体细节，日本x.com/qinbafrank/sta…帮助美国提升电力基础，韩国帮助美国重建造船业。 2）中国补什么短板？ 补芯片半导体关键技术环节上的短板，10月初中国的强硬也有一部分来自深圳新凯来在半导体关键技术上的突破，只是这个突破程度还不够； 补内需的短板，前段时间才刚刚开始要刺激需求和消费，那就能争取在一年姐让消费能稍微提振，不至于成为掣肘。 加强地缘布局，美国在战略收缩，那么中国是可以利用这个收缩主动出击，给自己营造空间很大的地缘政治格局。 以后就是两套供应链体系，两套经贸体系。x.com/qinbafrank/sta…未来两个圈美元一个圈、人民币一个圈，两个圈越来越闭合。 不断强化冷战经济（自力更生）的国家则在斗争中获益匪浅，那些盲目相信全球化的国家则在斗争中陷入困境——即唯有自己的经济咽喉得到保护，也就是逆全球化，才能获得国家的可靠安全基础。 4、中美博弈的新局面 有意思的是会谈前，川普在会中将此次会晤称为“G2会议”，白宫官方渠道随后同步转发。这一表述意味着美国政府事实上承认中美两国在全球政治与经济秩序中的“核心双极”地位。不同于过去传统意义上美国主导的“单极结构”、亦不同于中国向来倡导的“多边主义”的大国关系新范式 过去，美国在中美博弈中扮演了一个更为主动的角色，但此次冲突中，中国则在拥有更为强大的工具，并在占据了更为有利的位置。这次稀土石墨烯等材料出口管制中首次照搬了美国的长臂管辖、从之前被动应对到主动应对。如果细看在这一次中美谁先眨眼的游戏里、其实美国先眨眼了。 深层次矛盾和核心利益不可调和决定了长周期里的博弈不可避免，但是双方内部掣肘制约也倒逼双方打而不破、都是在走钢丝绳。而底线思维在于，核武器和大规模杀伤性武器的存在让双方直接爆发热战的可能性比较小。在一个长期的战略博弈周期内、会在经贸、科技、金融、地缘等多个领域进行反复的试探和发动代理人冲突，围堵与反围堵，包围与反包围。 这一场持久战

@Veekay0606 @BrianTycangco 我目前并不是很看好他们的商业模式

@xray_crash @BrianTycangco Both are dirt cheap, send me more like Yuanjie semiconductor like that. You know all the good tickers.

Hong Kong market holding up this morning after the #FOMC #Powell 50bps cut last night. Risk on sentiment improving for one of the most undervalued markets in the world. Below are HK premiums vs. ADRs. $NIO +4.4% vs. ADR $BABA +3.0% vs. ADR $JD +4.1% vs. ADR $BIDU +2.8% vs. ADR $NTES +1.5% vs. ADR $XPEV +5.1% vs. ADR $LI +1.4% vs. ADR $BILI +4.4% vs. ADR Expectations of Beijing coming out with policy support post-Fed rate cut are growing. #StocksToWatch #China #Macro

@Veekay0606 why?

@xray_crash So many good companies I see like 688313

@Veekay0606 @BrianTycangco 为什么你会看好JD和BABA呢 我是中国人 我经常使用JD和BABA的购物APP 想知道你的想法 兄弟

@BrianTycangco Cheapest market in the world, won’t remain like this for long. Need to buy when sentiment is the worst. In 2-4 years, where will be stocks like $JD and $BABA? Ridiculous is the word for the valuations of these companies. Time to back up the truck!!!

@FWS_Dev @aleabitoreddit 为什么 我是中国人 看了你的回答 我想的是中国目前优势在于全产业链的布局优势 还有人力优势 以及更快地政府辅助企业优势 这方面深圳市政府做的不错 如果你想创业人形机器人 你可以在两到三天内买到所有配件 这是物流时间和效率的优势 我想听听你的想法

@aleabitoreddit I think we have a higher chance looking into Chinese companies.

All right chat. I need some more ideas on the early $RKLB equivalent for humanoid exposure. 10x+ potential returns only in the next 2 years and more pure play exposure than $TSLA. What’s your best ideas?

@MoonShotMarty @aleabitoreddit HEY 你还买中国股票吗 兄弟 我是中国人 看来你对中国市场有很深的研究

@aleabitoreddit I'm in CATL, Bejing Geekplus and Ubtech Robotics. Waiting for Shenzhen Inovance to go public. Not necessarily exactly what you wanted, but not uninteresting either. 😂

@peanutcat123 @aleabitoreddit 我是真想买台湾股票啊 同胞😭😭😭

@aleabitoreddit thank you so much for all the work you do. sending love from Taiwan!!!!!!!!

Glad to hear it! I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD? 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVEF 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month. The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH. Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe). But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.

@therecgod 赞同你的看法 先进思维和落后思维的博弈

$sive US investors waking up and buying the dip presented by the Swedes. Whose right? The Swedes who looks at $sive past under performance or the US side who thinks if they execute well this time, 2027 will be massive. Backward thinking v forward thinking

@StkCryptoTrd Hello, Master. I’ve read most of your posts and found that you are a highly skilled technical trader who strictly follows trading discipline. I would like to learn trading techniques from you. Would that be possible? Wishing you peace and safety.

My Live Stock Trade Journal – Official Baseline 2026 Real Capital. Full Transparency. Exact Entries + Live Returns. Updated Daily. 20+ years of skin in the game. These are my actual stock positions with my own money — exact entries, cost basis, current price, % return, charts, and reasoning shown without fluff. Important note: I am constantly trimming huge winning positions on strength to keep position sizing balanced and never let any single name become an oversized portion of the portfolio. $TSLA and $NVDA are in my never sell Long-term portfolio. This pinned thread is the permanent master timeline. All future updates will be clean numbered replies to this thread only. Core Long-Term Holds (Opened 2017 – My Most Famous Trades) #LT1 $TSLA – Opened 2017 One of my most famous trades ever. Full-stack AI, autonomy, robotics, energy. Current price $371.75 | Over 100x return — letting the winner run with full conviction (regular trims taken on strength). #LT2 $NVDA – Opened 2017 My other most famous trade. AI infrastructure king. Current price $172.85 | Over 100x return — fully positioned and compounding (regular trims taken). Major Positions Opened 2025 – Still Open & Active in 2026 #1 $TER – Robotics / Semiconductor Test (Bought Nov 26, 2025 at $168.50) Current price $296.46 | +76.0% return — strong gains carried into 2026 (regular trims taken). #2 $LITE – Optical Networking / AI (Position built throughout 2025) True outlier on volume + AI-system confirmation. Cost basis $122.05 Current price $702.15 | +475% return — blowing past every target (regular trims taken on strength). #3 $MU – AI Memory Leader (Position built 2025) Entered at $186.25 + added more at $201. Blended cost basis $192.80 Current price $337.80 | +75.2% return — still positioned with regular trims on strength. #4 $MRVL – AI Semiconductor / Infrastructure (Position built 2025, added ~$99 in March 2026) Current price $99.05 | +100%+ return — core AI stack holding (regular trims taken). #5 $VRT – Data Center Cooling / AI Power (Position built 2025) Current price $251.40 | +142% return — high conviction name (regular trims taken). #6 $RKLB – Space / Defense Tech (Position built 2025) Cost basis low $40s Current price $63.85 | +55% return — long-term compounder. #7 $PL – Planet Labs (Position built 2025) Cost basis $18.18 Current price $27.95 | +53.7% return — trimmed significantly when it reached 1x return (doubled) to manage position size. Still holding the remaining core position. #8 $PLTR – AI Software / Data Platform (Position built 2025, added at $34.10 + $149.57 in March 2026) One of my largest and highest conviction long-term AI plays. Blended cost basis low 30’s Current price $146.20 | +329% return — still fully positioned (regular trims taken). #9 $STX – Storage / AI Infrastructure (Position built 2025) Current price $387.60 | +100%+ return (regular trims taken). #10 $MSFT – AI + Cloud Leader (Position built 2025) Current price $368.35 | +100%+ return — core holding (regular trims taken). #11 $COHR – Optics / AI Hardware (Position built 2025) Cost basis $160.38 Current price $238.15 | +48.5% return (regular trims taken). Recent 2026 Positions #12 $OBDC – Private Credit / BDC (60,000+ shares) Bought March 26 at $11.20 → added March 30 dip → current cost basis $11.14• 27% discount to $14.81 NAV • 13.7% dividend yield • Base case ~30% total return by 12/31/2026 (60% prob) Current price $11.03 | -1.0% from cost basis — fear = opportunity. #13 $SOC – Oil & Gas (Bought March 18, 2026 at $17.20 pre-market) Strong AH move on Chevron Santa Ynez restart. Roth PT $24. Current price $16.56 | -3.7% from entry — still fully positioned. #14 $CE – Short-term Swing Rotation (Entered March 29, 2026) Rotated drone profits into this name. Current price $66.10 — broke above entry with conviction. On track for 15-25% move. #15 $GEVO – Biofuel / Renewable Energy (Position built March 2026) Bought at $2.34 + added at $2.38. Blended cost basis $2.36 Current price $2.73 | +15.7% return — still fully positioned (winning trade). My Trading Rules (Forged Over 20+ Years) Let big winners run with real size while constantly trimming on strength to manage position sizing Cut losers fast, no hope Discipline over hope. Always. Only add fresh capital when my system and setup line up perfectly New updates, adds, exits, charts, and live return math will be posted exclusively as numbered replies to this master thread. Bookmark + turn on notifications if you want to follow my actual book in real time. Discipline over hope. We prosper together. 🚀 Not financial advice • DYOR always • Serious stock traders welcome

@StkCryptoTrd @aleabitoreddit 你是一个好人 上帝眷顾你

Serenity, Keep up the great work for retail. I do the exact same thing every single day — full transparency, zero paywalls. No Substack, no Discord, no Telegram, no Patreon. I don’t need the money. I enjoy giving decades of real trading experience away for free. That’s why I run two fully live journals (Stock + Crypto) with every trade, exact cost basis, and real-time updates — all public, all free.

@user_anonmaga21 @aleabitoreddit @45daysignals 真希望你没有卖掉AAOI的看涨期权 兄弟 他现在的价格很疯狂

@aleabitoreddit @45daysignals How long have you been at this for man? I'm just starting out.. missed pretty bad last week was bullish for no reason and sold 20 grabs of AAOI calls I got at 79.... I'm 23 and going to start doing equities instead (I lost it all)

@wealth_effect 你认为XFAB未来的股价会到多少呢，大师，我也比较看好XFAB和SIVE

IMO the most undervalued SI Photonics company - XFAB !!

@binglingzixuan @eee3namnar_

达成36万粉丝❤送更衣人偶喜多川海梦cosplay魅魔形态榨汁11分钟完整版来啦😄口硬了男生坐上去就无套吃掉~女上位骑乘直上直下深蹲女打桩机加上抚摸挑逗男主乳头😍不到十分钟搞定内射中出流出哗啦一片精液拔穴走人🤭这个男人不行了……下一个→就是你哟(✿◡‿◡)突然想起darling in the franxx的02啦😳

@dominolu 你好 麻烦拉一下拉一下，谢谢啦

#MSX 麦通美股社群的含博量太高了 assume博士的投研水平值得 无脑跟单了 要进麦通美股社群的可以私信联系

@nhs1688 报名 失业一年多了😭

招助理，男女不限，月薪8888美金。 工作内容：躺平。 我想体验用金钱把一个活生生的年轻人砸成废人的感觉。 评论区报道。 社會實驗

@U99J8__ 报名

坐标青浦，30+小学音乐教师，要求方面有说哦，合适的来找我报名吧！