Nate

@alexksai love it. also a fan of Uniswap Hook. I am trying to monitor newly created Hooks and the token behind it. Maybe also track transaction generated by hook. Hope we can connect.

@qiqileyuan 看不懂。只能事后验证。感觉只是在为泡沫辩经

挺喜欢这篇文章的视角的，讲故事的水平真一流。 这篇文章解决了一个ai的大难题： Ai大跃进，成本端能被轻易计量（硬件股起飞的源泉） 但是产出端，就落地成了token订阅费，除了几家大公司收益外。你看你20刀、100刀订阅费，就把传统几千刀的活儿给干了。这就会造成一个问题，cpi是下不来的，但是gdp因为大家都失业了，上不去，即滞胀。这就会带来ai泡沫的鬼故事。 于是文章提出了一个概念，叫暗产出（dark output）， 指出传统 GDP 统计就是个瞎子。它只认“看得见的美元交易”，却把ai产生的 99% 的价值直接扔进了黑洞——暗产出（Dark output）。 类似几毛钱token费干掉精英律师几千刀顾问费的事情，在传统gdp看来就是gdp下降。但是在文章“暗产出”的视角来看，就是这部分价值gpd没有计量到，这是统计局没有与时俱进的问题，不是ai的问题。 如果以后出现cpi不跌，gpd不涨的滞胀鬼故事，ai是不背这个锅的。 潜台词是：如果市场产生了滞胀的担忧，不慌，buy the dip，接着奏乐接着舞。 所以市场很聪明，先炒gdp能统计到的部分，即各大厂的capex，电力，gpu，存储，光。 但是gdp看不到的部分，就会等能被看到了再炒（例如最近硬切软，就得等真的财报里有ai业务并且高速增长才行） 这里就存在一个如何让这些“暗产出”服务被看到的问题。 感觉 @virtuals_io 的Agentic GDP（aGDP）可以想想办法，如果能解决一部分，显化出来让市场看到，那真是大功一件。

@798_eth 本质是这个世界的底层就是欺骗 掠夺 屠杀，币圈只是一个包装的最好的场所。当然必然还有少数有良心的，V神 Jeff，不过V神也管不了下面的人。而且有良心也只是不会做坏事，也不代表别人会为了你的利益和福祉尽心尽力

我越来越觉得，加密货币最大的谎言，不是“它会不会归零”，而是“普通人真的能靠它翻身”。 过去十年，很多人把 Crypto 当成信仰，觉得只要拿住 BTC、ETH，或者押中下一个百倍币，就能改变命运。但现实是，大多数真正赚到钱的人，早就完成了撤退。创始人套现了，VC 解锁了，交易所靠手续费赚麻了，做市商吃波动，KOL 吃流量和带单，早期玩家吃认知差。最后留下来的，往往是后入场的散户，还在用“长期主义”“去中心化”“金融革命”安慰自己。 这不是说加密货币完全没价值。BTC 有它的叙事，稳定币有真实需求，RWA、跨境支付、链上结算也确实有用。但问题是，真正有用的东西，和市场上绝大多数币没有关系。大部分项目存在的意义，就是制造一个故事，然后把风险卖给后来的人。它包装成技术，包装成未来，包装成自由，最后本质还是一场财富转移：钱从不懂规则、不懂退出、不懂流动性的人手里，流向那些一开始就知道游戏规则的人手里。 很多人不是没有赚过钱，而是赚了以后没有离场。因为他们相信还有下一轮，相信牛市会回来，相信自己这次能跑赢所有人。但市场不会奖励信仰，只奖励位置、信息差和退出纪律。所以我现在越来越认同一件事：Crypto 可以投，可以玩，可以研究，但不能把人生押在里面。真正的机会不只在币圈，外面有公司，有股权，有现金流，有生意，有职业成长，有真实资产，也有能长期复利的技能。 币圈还会不会回来？会。但就算回来，赢家也大概率还是那批最早进场、最懂退出、最接近流动性源头的人。懂得退出很重要。

@798_eth 真实

@lesabrefomo I think execution is also important. until now bankr team showed their dedication and competence. bankr is long tail. metadao is select

makes me even more bullish on metadao the whole system needs to be rearchitected imo

@BarrySilbert @TedPillows how anyone should believe this on the surface?

@TedPillows that's a reasonable near term price target for everybody to fixate on and rally around

Garrett Bullish has opened a $39,130,000 $ZEC short. Liquidation Price: $1,073

@OrganIntel @BarrySilbert @TedPillows valid

@BarrySilbert @TedPillows translation: at this price my massive longs will be wildly in profit and i'll be dumping on everyone "rallying around" to get us there.

@EmberCN 刻舟求剑

没想到，现在市场交易热情已经比上轮熊市底部 (2022 年 12 月份) 都要低的多了。这还是在几大主流币价格其实都还远超当时价格的情况下。 ◎BTC：上次周期底部 Binance 上 BTC/USDT 平均每天交易量在 $20 亿附近，现在则只有 $5 亿左右。 现在价格是上次底部的 4.5 倍。上轮回调幅度是 -75%，这轮从高点下来到目前是 -38%。刻舟求剑的话本轮底部看 $3.1 万？ ◎ETH：上次周期底部 ETH/USDT 平均每天交易量在 $4 亿附近，现在则只有 $2 亿左右。 现在价格是上次底部的 1.7 倍。上轮回调幅度是 -75%，这轮从高点下来到目前是 -54%。刻舟求剑的话本轮底部看 ≈1,150？ ◎BNB：上次周期底部 BNB/USDT 平均每天交易量在 $5000 万附近，现在差不多也是这个水平。 现在价格是上次底部的 2.7 倍。上轮回调幅度是 -65%，这轮从高点下来到目前是 -50%。刻舟求剑的话本轮底部看 ≈450？ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- #Bitget 来了就是VIP！Crypto、美股、CFD，全球先机一站布局

@Rhynotic fast, true. Great, wtf?

i had the idea for TTT last thursday. only one week from idea -> contracts -> frontend -> sell out. i think the most valuable part of TokenWorks is how fast we can ship a novel idea that we think is great

@lesabrefomo nothing has longterm value. Just a short hype

some new things that have caught my eye recently - proof of useful work (nockchain, pearl) - v4 hooks (upeg, sato, + so much more) - gamified perps (offshore) exciting times

@lesabrefomo nothing important

@xenowits @systematicls dev discover before delivery

@systematicls then it becomes a race against time. for a given bug that *already exists*: who discovers it first? - if the attacker does, the exploit's already done - if the defender does, the exploit's thwarted so "time to discovery" becomes a crucial factor rather than just the economics

This is the right way to think about it. These bugs have always existed, in finite supply. What we are seeing just the reasonable economic reaction to the cost of discovery going down to zero. The problem mostly fixes itself when defenders also exploit the same cost structures.

@Alfred_Lin when people are not lazy? like work hard or do their best in football game

While we like to believe our brains are rational and principled, our brains are, first and foremost, lazy. Worse than being lazy, our brains also have an infinite capacity for self-deception and delusion. Embedded in our survival instinct is our ability to rationalize, minimize, and deny inconvenient truths. Ways you can counteract this: - Slow down - Find and absorb disconfirming information - Reevaluate views from first principles - Have truth-seeking discussions - Be willing to update your priors - Work as a team

@Super4DeFi 接最后一棒。今天还在想为什么人会在泡馍高点接盘，因为一天10％的诱惑无可抵挡。在顶部的时候，稍微观望几天就会发现一个简单的现象，就是你随便买进去，就会一天给你来10％。而对比存款利息和国债，一天10％是个很惊人的诱惑。

@lesabrefomo 刻舟求剑

hmm this time different?

@RanjYousif @KobeissiLetter spot on

@KobeissiLetter The "witnessing history" posts always show up about three weeks before the chart looks different. Saving this one.

We truly are witnessing history right now. It's clear that the period we are in now will be referenced for decades to come. The S&P 500 has added +$10 trillion in 29 days, semiconductor, AI stocks are surging 100%+ in weeks, and the Trump Administration is up +550% on Intel. When we began emphasizing the need to own assets to win in this market over 12 months ago, this is exactly what we meant. While inflation is back and the labor market has weakened, it simply does not matter right now. In fact, the return of inflation has only intensified the scramble for yield and hard assets that can preserve purchasing power. Look at the data: just 5 stocks have accounted for ~50% of the S&P 500’s total gains since April 1st. These same tech giants driving the market higher are gaining even more momentum amid rate cuts, deregulation, and historic inflows into equities. Asset owners are experiencing one of the greatest wealth expansions in modern history while everyone else is being left behind. Our 12+ month thesis has materialized.

@mikealfred learned

The strategy to win big in markets is not dissimilar to winning in poker. Find places where you have significant edge and then bet in size as frequently as you can to capture as much as you can until such time that the edge no longer persists. It’s that simple. End message.

@antonhaskevych @GergelyOrosz naive to trust what others said word by word

It is not surprise Elon did it. That’s abgood deal for both parties 1. Elon has excess capacity and Colossus 1 has been utilized only for 11% 2. He liked the senior Anthropic team. He said “Thy didn’t trigger my evil detector” 3. “Enemy of my enemy is my friend” - they compete with OpenAI 4. He gets huge money from this deal 5. Reserved right to plug off Anthropic if he suspects they are harming humanity

So let me get this right: 1. Anthropic bans xAI from using Claude (to stop them from perhaps distilling Claude for their own model) (...) 2. xAI gives up ~a quarter of its DC capacity for Anthropic to rent and run Claude A win for Anthropic no doubt. What's in it for xAI tho?

@0x_xifeng 当傻子都能挣钱的时候

闭着眼买半导体、内存和储存都赚钱 哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈，🌿

@tiger_web3 明白自己赚的什么钱，凭什么赚钱。不然自己就是被吃的那个。

前天是主网v4 hook 昨天是Ton meme 今天是BASE AI 这个切换节奏大家跟上了吗？