Feathers

@TVAFR786 @actions_usa lol, god forbid Allan makes some money!

@actions_usa HUGE SELL by the ceo. as negative as it could be

🚨 $UMAC INSIDER SELL ALERT: Smart money is exiting into the parabolic blow-off top. - Actor: Allan Evans - Volume: $14,800,000.00 - Holdings Impact: Material liquidation of position - 10b5-1 Plan: No - Average Price: Current market levels - Total Capital Deployed: $14,800,000.00 - Liquidity Impact: 7.74% of 30-day ADTV CONVICTION SCORE: 9/10 MARKET THESIS: UMAC has surged 8.45% today on speculative retail inflows tied to potential Trump administration drone funding contracts. The absence of a 10b5-1 trading plan confirms this $14.8M divestment is a discretionary, opportunistic exit rather than a scheduled liquidation. Insiders are signaling that the current valuation has decoupled from fundamental reality, using the liquidity provided by speculative momentum to offload significant exposure before the narrative-driven rally exhausts itself. 🤖 AI-Curated Data Pipeline | Not Financial Advice

@UnusualMachines @AlphaWolfTrding @evansall Can’t you do another one quickly to talk about the OSC news? Don’t tell me i have to wait 6 weeks for the next one 😕

👀🦅🇺🇸 "Effectively infinite demand." $UMAC CEO Allan Evans joins @AlphaWolfTrding to discuss domestic drone manufacturing, NDAA-compliant supply chains, battery production, and the future of the U.S. drone industry. 🔋⚙️📈 Worth the watch 🎥youtube.com/watch?v=76HGf1…

@FDu213 @SBlockspy @Polymarket Yeah no, good try though naming your own investments, but the rest definitely isn’t trash if you did some research.

@SBlockspy @Polymarket Only 2 quality names $KTOS and $AVAV the rest are trash

JUST IN: Unusual Machines stock soars +60% on reports the Trump administration is looking to invest in U.S. drone companies.

@Jamesk736 @OndasHoldings @CeoOndas They’re not getting an investment by the OSC obviously 😅

$RCAT - 36% increase $UMAC - 65% increase $ONDS - 23% increase Why is $ONDS @OndasHoldings @CeoOndas not pumping as much???

@fundmyfund Are you becoming the serenity of drone stocks

$UMAC "double in a year" $14s -> $28s: 9 days ago $4 down $10 to go I have 356 days still in my favor.

@FiveBaggers SS?

$UMAC whale swept over $1.1 Million into the July $20 calls.

@fundmyfund Saw it on TipRanks last week no clue if it’s credible though, site looks meh. tipranks.com/news/the-fly/u…

@zIFeatherss where did you get that oppenheimer news from - yes posted about the Jones news

$UMAC nice early start Total comfort on this story - no clue where the PPS goes, will go up and down. It's all about year end 2027 revenue from here; when the market starts to discount that we will get fireworks.

@burlingtononta @fundmyfund @X I like your profile picture 🤝

@fundmyfund @X The four days of learning the drone is a common courtesy. Last time was such a disaster.

Drone Dominance Gauntlet 2 deets -some BIG changes. I was going to schedule this tomorrow when people will actually read it but since @x chews up many scheduled posts, don't want to risk it. $RCAT $ONDS $AVAV $KTOS $DRPO 🔼Massive uptick in # of entrants 2⃣2 competitions - long range (12+ miles) and short range/urban ❓Only 8 winners? (we will see) Must provide 120 of your drones and 8 sets of your components! (which will eventually be $UMAC to provide or competitor) ⚠️China components restricted vs free for all in Gauntlet 1! 📴 Constant CUAS jamming! ⌛️Operators won't be handed the damn drone and told to understand it in 2 hours, but get 4 days 🌃 Day/night missions 🤖Autonomy 👉For Gauntlet 2, however, the DDP is competing long-range (12+ miles) strike drones separately from short-range ‘Close Quarters’ drones for urban, interior and subterranean environments. Ultimately, DDP plans to award contracts for 5 long-range and three close-quarters drones for Gauntlet 2. 👉 Participating companies must supply 120 of their submitted UAVs and eight sets of durable components (control systems, additional comms etc.) for trials conducted by military personnel. 👉Companies are held to a per-UAV price ceiling of $5,500 or $4,500 for long- and short-range drones respectively, and even stricter restrictions on incorporating Chinese components than in Gauntlet 1. 👉Unlike Gauntlet 1, Gauntlet 2 trials will take place under continuous C-UAS jamming, and military operators will receive four days of familiarization rather than just two hours. 👉Gauntlet 2 will also feature more dynamic day/night missions, including against moving targets, and will more heavily reward autonomy features like Automatic Target Recognition, terminal guidance and ‘cognitive de-loading’ for operators generally. insideunmannedsystems.com/drone-dominanc…

@fundmyfund Can’t wait to see what your genius (autism) cooked up!!

Can't be on this call, but I submitted a list of somewhat thoughtful questions to the principals, so looking forward to the replay tonight and deciphering if my financial models .....which are not to be believed when I stare at them -- are in fact, to be believed. $UMAC Major advantage for us small fry to have direct connection with people running these companies as the asymmetrical advantage for us isn't in $GOOG or $NVDA but in these little known names. I always try to remember that while I myself and a few others may have been in or around these names for a year plus, the vast majority of fintwits have never heard of them, forget Joe Schmoe who watches @CNBC or reads Kiplingers or @WSJ -- so if 'correct', we have an immense runway ahead. And these months of the PPS doing zilch are a small cost for the potential reward. Just don't say "We're so early" or its autoblock!

@Julius10x Exactly man, gotta get that checks worth 🫡

@Feather34745755 Yea. Let me talk shit about my own thesis and pump literal shit co's 😂

Drone tech traders love trading stories. People buy $RCAT $ONDS $UMAC etc because of their story and future promises. It's all hype. Meanwhile, $AVEX just reported absolute killer numbers for Q1. 307% to $207M and $600-$620 for 2026. Military procurement doesn't care about seed rounds and pitch decks. It cares about battle tested hardware. Long $AVEX

@BrettKrieger12 Hence why you become a parts vendor instead of betting on a single horse.

2 main takeaways from SOF 1. autonomous systems 2. everyone and their mother is building drones

@GrumpierBTDay @fundmyfund Cheerio, next time don’t forget Upgrade Energy or I’ll sign you up for Needham Research ☺️

@Feather34745755 @fundmyfund Ty for your contribution Feathers 🫡

Been digging into $UMAC, trying to understand why the analyst numbers seem so off compared to CEO Allan's statements and my own guesstimates. The consensus FY27 revenue is about $50M. A recent Litchfield Hills report targets $50M top line for FY '27. Needham has a FY26 estimate of $40M (raised from $25M after Q1) and a "clear path to a $100M run-rate by FY27", which implies Q4 27 at $25 M. Scale that back through the year for a FY target of about $55M to $65M Roth Capital and Jones Trading give a $25 and $20 PT respectively, but I can't find explicit top line projections. Working backwards I figure they're modeling about $50M in FY27. CEO Allan Evans, on the other hand, has been pretty consistent across multiple channels (AlphaWolf, the Q1 call, and the White Diamond piece). The targets he keeps repeating: - 1,000+ employees - 100-120K motors a month - 140K sqft of factory footprint - $250M top line FY27 from the Drone Dominance Program alone This is a $200M discrepancy on the top line between Allan's commentary and analyst targets. Sooooo.... what gives? Either Allan, or the analysts, are off by an order of magnitude. This is the kind of gap worth digging into. I want to zoom in on the headcount, both because it's something Allan has articulated as an indicator, and because it stood out to me in the CC+Shareholder letter. To give a quick timeline, as reported in the last 10K: - Mar 31, 2025: 18 employees - Dec 31, 2025: 81 employees, $4.9M revenue - Mar 6, 2026: 141 employees, $8.1M revenue Then on the Q1 shareholder letter and CC we were informed they're at 200 employees, and still hiring. So, +60 employees in roughly six weeks between the 10k and Q1. 10 employees per week. With about 85 weeks between May 14th the end of '27, 10/week would put us right at the 1000 employees Allan has targeted. Interesting. In Q1 they did $230k/employee annualized ($8.1M / 141 * 4), fueled by a jump in B2B revenue from basically 0 to $7.3 million. Don't forget this number includes new hires, trainees, those not yet truly productive. Compare this to Q4 where they did $240k/employee, annualized, at 81 employees. Headcount increased 75% while rev/employee basically stayed flat. This suggests to me that UMAC is effectively hiring into demand. What's more, the ratio between 'productive' and 'trainee' only improves from here. I expect we'll see a bit of improvement and then leveling out. Side note: they're investing in more factory automation equipment, which should eventually boost rev/employee. I don't think $300k/ is out of the question down the road. Not using that number though. Putting that all together, if we get to 1000 employees by end of '27 and pencil in $250k/employee, we get $250M top line. Right in line with what Allan has targeted. Interesting. So the pace of hiring is on track, and Allan's top line is a reasonable target if both hiring keeps pace and Allan can put 1000 people to work at a $250k annualized rate. Are there structural barriers to hiring? No, not at all. A recent Bizumentary highlighted how the job requirements can all be taught on site. The factory has a notable contingent of former food service workers. Labor pool is effectively infinite. The bigger question is do they have the facilities to support 1000 people? They currently have 62k sqft of space across 5 facilities in Orlando. Let's look at the timeline: - Jun 4 '25: 17K sqft motor center - Oct 30 '25: 25K sqft fulfillment center - Dec 10 '25: 9.1K sqft HQ - Dec 15 '25: 4.5K sqft headset production As of the Q1 CC, Allan intends to expand to 100k sqft by the end of Q2. More expansion is expected by Q4, which puts that 140k sqft '27 target clearly in view. So hiring isn't a constraint, nor are facilities. Equipment doesn't look like it's going to be a constraint, either. Note 6 on the most recent 10Q indicates there's 1.3M of equipment related to motor production to be delivered in Q2. This is against 2.5M of currently deployed equipment. I think we can expect that to continue to scale through the Qs. So we've got what's essentially a doubling of manufacturing related facilities, a 50% bump in equipment related capacity, and a steady pace of hiring to put it all to use. All in the next 3 months... let alone the next 12. What about raw materials? Considering this is a factory environment, we can use materials+margins to cross-check our headcount based projections, and measure both against Allan's statements. As of Q1, UMAC had $12M of raw materials and $13.5M of prepaid deposits. This is an expansion from the $4.2M of raw materials and $9.7M of prepaid deposits held in Q4. That's $12M of net inflow in Q1. Subsequent to Q1, UMAC placed an order for $75M of raw materials, to be delivered in Q3. Let's carry that forward. As of Q1, GM was 32.8%, but long term run rate is expected to be 40%. Of this, most, but not all, will be materials. The 10Q states COGS includes "inventory costs, which includes an allocation for labor and rent for our manufactured products, direct packaging costs, and production related depreciation, if any." in addition to "certain shipping and other direct product costs including tariffs". For Q1, COGS came out to $5.4M. Recall this was on a raw inventory of $4.2M as of Dec. Let's hand-wave and say that labor, packaging, shipping, and tariffs eat up 30% of COGS, and that materials are the remaining 70%. This will produce a conservative revenue number vs if we give raw materials a heavier weight. At 70% attribution, raw material contributed $3.8M, which means there's a materials-to-revenue ratio of 54%. That would project our already-placed materials PO of $75M into $139M of top line alone. This material should arrive That's *far* closer to Allan's $250M target than to the consensus $50M. Here's where it gets interesting: Allan has indicated that the $75M raw materials order is just the first of two waves. Per the April 6th AlphaWolf interview: "And you know, in a in a week or two, we're going to have to order another 60 to 80 million dollars worth of raw material. Okay, right? And then 6 months after that, we're going to have to order 100 to 150 million dollars of raw material." Then, on May 5th, 4 weeks later (a little delayed), the $75M order came through. The timeline places the next big order some time around December. So for FY '26, we've got $25M of current inventory and prepaids, and $75M of new orders. That's $100M of raw inventory bought and paid for. A cold hard fact. With our assumed margins that gives us $185M top line. Even if you totally ignore Allan's statements about another big order, that blows the consensus '26 and '27 numbers out of the water. What would the next $100M to $150M of raw materials add? Well, at 54% revenue contribution that'd be another $185M to $277M, putting combined '26 and '27 revenue at $370M to $460M. 👏 Against 👏 $50M 👏 full 👏 year 👏 '27 👏 top 👏 line 👏 estimates👏 (did I emoji right?) Reminder that Needham targeted $40M for FY '26, and a 'run rate $100M' end of '27. Litchfield projects $35.5M top line '26 and $50M '27. Neither of these are even in the ballpark of what we can project based on already placed materials orders. What's UMAC trading at today? $685M MCAP, with $220M of cash and $60M of short term investments gives us an EV of $400M. On our already-committed materials, and assumed $180M top line that creates, that's just beyond 2xNTM EV/Sales. That's cheap, especially considering the defense tailwinds and supply chain mandates, let alone the DJI ban and thus domestic commercial market vacuum. I call that optionality. So I'm left scratching my head, wondering what these analysts are thinking, but content to keep buying.

@GrumpierBTDay @fundmyfund Proud to be one of those likes, put it in the Reddit for ya

@fundmyfund watch this get 84 views and 6 likes.

@Michael788ycl Copying @fundmyfund lol

$OPTX Similar setup to $LPTH and $UMAC — same type of short-term momentum structure, but with very different follow-through outcomes The key here is continuation, not the single-day strength Is $OPTX finally breaking into sustained momentum, or just another fade-after-spike setup

@Michael74234793 @HenryInvests Hahaha I know right!

@Feather34745755 @HenryInvests Imagine if this guy responded and then was forced to use his brain instead of puking up AI made drivel

@TheDroneWarrior @spectator @benclerkin Great article Brett, some exciting times ahead for you and the company: Powerus will be one of the first to extract that technology for the US when the deal is finalized. US firms will now be able to acquire Ukrainian drone firms and with them R&D technology? Can’t wait!

America isn’t prepared for drone terrorism. Read my discussion with @spectator @benclerkin 👇 👇 👇 spectator.com/article/americ…

@TRA7van @babyfolio One is overhyped, one is underrated so it’s your call. But they’re definitely not overlapping lol

@babyfolio Already holding $UMAC in my portfolio. For a relatively small account, do you think adding exposure to $KRKNF may be too risky or overlapping, given their sectors ? 🤔 Would love to hear your thoughts!

People are sleeping on $KRKNF /$PNG.V Nothing is priced in. Not the Covelya merger, not the Nasdaq listing. You can get it cheap today, or super expensive in half a year.