Zak Lounds

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater So what you've proven there is house prices follow wages.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater Blackpool, Bradford and the Welsh Valleys for example are all affordable despite also being under zero interest rates and help to buy. London is much less affordable because of this:

It’s amazing how many otherwise intelligent people can’t get past “but it’s supply and demand”. They think they’ve discovered the secret answer to all economics when they discover it. Ignoring the role of debt, price manipulation, uneven government stimulus and treating home prices like banana prices is the populist, dummy’s view. And it’s why we have an affordability crisis. Because if everyone actually understood what’s happening, we wouldn’t have the affordability crisis.

@fretwell_eddie @TheGriftReport There's definitely a case of refugees coming over and being put into hotels, but that's down to government policy, got a problem with it raise it with you MP. You should know loads of people come here legally, work and pay taxes, without them we wouldn't have state pension.

@zlounds @TheGriftReport So they do pay for their own hotel rooms, their own healthcare and don't get benefits? Awesome because i thought illegals were getting everything free 🤡

Tony Blair has urged scrapping the ‘unaffordable’ pensions triple lock that protects millions of pensioners, his own think tank claims the system is outdated and too rigid for modern life with costs exploding by £85 billion a year by 2070, the former PM’s report demands it ends after the next election and be replaced by a new ‘lifespan fund’ that forces people to build their own entitlement through work, Blair’s director Tom Smith said Britain’s state pension was built for a different era and we can’t keep pouring money into a system that is increasingly unaffordable, pensioners facing rising bills are now told to accept less while the multi-millionaire ex-leader lectures them on restraint, Thoughts?

@EgoSpeedoHero @100kDiary Do you have a private pension as well? I'm thinking I'd just take my LISA at 60 and withdraw 4% annually from it, so it continues to grow. I think by putting it into a SIPP I could end up paying more taxes with my private pension as well.

@100kDiary I’m 38 I’ve got £20,000 in my Lisa, Gonna put £4000 a year into it until I’m 50 Then at 60 gonna withdraw it tax free then put it into my sipp Double bonus baby!! Hahah

Everyone tries to terrify you about the Lifetime ISA 25% withdrawal penalty. They make it sound like a financial death trap if you change your mind about buying a house. Let’s look at the actual math on a £4,000 deposit: • You put in £4,000 • Gov adds £1,000 = £5,000 total • 25% exit penalty on £5k = £1,250 • You walk away with £3,750 You only actually lost £250 of your own cash (6.25%). To get your original £4k back, that £5,000 only needs to grow to £5,334 (a 6.67% return). In the S&P 500, historical averages mean that takes about a year or two. Everything after that is pure profit. You don't eliminate the fee, you just outrun it.

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater 100% agree with that sentiment but the issue is that H2B and other government intervention is what caused house prices to spiral out of affordability. Increasing credit lending doesn't help the young it just makes them debt slaves.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater The problem is that younger people can only afford to rent a flatshare or somewhere small to buy with inheritance money. Yes, people can technically always afford something but younger people should be able to afford more floorspace.

@The_0ld_Normal @TheGriftReport 🫵 R 🫃Of 💩.

@zlounds @TheGriftReport Most immigrants are not tax payers. You must have made a typo.

@TheGriftReport Deportations? Most immigrants are net tax payers. Without them state pension can't exist! State pension is a Ponzi and needs reform into a new system that's funded by markets and wealth creation.

Mass deportations will fix this, starting with Blair

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater Of course they'll fall down to a level affordable again, it's how markets work. There's always a demand, it's just finding the price that create a demand to close a sale. People always want to move eventually and some forced; Debt, Death and Divorce.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater Yeah, and if house prices come down to the point that people will be able to sell again homes still won’t be affordable because the fall in prices won’t be enough.

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater No joke. These would sell if it wasn't due to unaffordability. Stamp duty + rates. So house prices need to come down. Supply is increasing every day for Rightmove listings. Also I've noticed a lot of unoccupied homes for sale.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater This has to be a joke. Do you seriously think because there are a few houses in rightmove (all of which are very expensive at least in London) there can’t be lack of supply?

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater There's no lack of housing lol. Have you checked Rightmove lately? Every week the supply increases.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater No, the original argument was that lack of affordability is *entirely* caused by lending multiples and has nothing to do with housing supply. You can think that lending multiples are too high and also think that lack of housing supply is driving unaffordability.

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater Yes but the point is lending multiples have gotten out of hand, it will break the market.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater Yes, that’s my point.

@ukhpinfo @MortgageMikeN2 @alexgroundwater @AtriarcGroup @Mike47w @moving_charlie Yeah because of fixed rates. Many will be coming off those. Watch that number inflate to above 5% in 2 years time.

@MortgageMikeN2 @alexgroundwater @AtriarcGroup @Mike47w @moving_charlie The average LTI is 3.63 in England.

But, you know, there’s a “housing shortage” apparently. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Waiting for the “build houses” mob to wake up and switch to “stop loosening lending” instead, if they actually want more affordable homes.

@MortgageMikeN2 @alexgroundwater @AtriarcGroup @Mike47w @moving_charlie They turned the tap on too fast and flooded the bathroom. We need a steady flow of credit, let the market normalise to new IRs and borrow multiples.

@alexgroundwater @AtriarcGroup @Mike47w @moving_charlie We now have 7 x income, lend till you are 75 (can be longer!) BTL lending opened up mortgages to anyone with a deposit. A return to sensible lending would be welcome after the loosening of criteria we have seen in the last 12 months or so.

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater There's still a limit to what households can afford monthly. So borrowing does have a limit unless wages keep growing.

@zlounds @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater True, then the increased credit won’t push up prices proportionately then. So halving interest rates will less than double prices. But it can’t make homes less affordable otherwise who’d have loads of unsold homes and UK has very little empty homes in high demand areas.

@Darius1296 @moving_charlie @alexgroundwater yes interest only is the same monthly cost but the majority of people prefer a repayment mortgage as they gain equity monthly. It makes a big difference in your comparison.

@moving_charlie Increased credit just pushes up prices, it doesn’t make buying a home less affordable. 5% of £400,000 is the same as 10% of £200,000.

@moving_charlie Oooh CL the LLs will hate you for this post 😂. 1. SDLT is bringing in £15B+ YoY 2. I remember nationwide only offer 3.5x in 2015, now they do 5.5x on some products. 3. Corporate LLs will replace private LLs as they're easier to regulate and fine against.

Slowly but surely people are beginning to connect the dots between the housing affordability crisis and excessive lending, leading to a generation being priced out of homes, even when over a million homes stand empty. We have all, including politicians and ministers, been collectively gaslit into believing that building more houses helps affordability. It’s now clear that that’s not true. Only the gradual unwinding of mortgage multiples will allow house prices to return to reasonable multiples of salaries. The government must do 3 things: 1. Scrap stamp duty for UK citizens buying their only home. 2. Gradually reduce mortgage lending multiple limits 3. End their reliance on the private rented sector for meeting public housing obligations. All of these measures would result in a boost to the economy and social mobility as well as lower house prices relative to wages.

@StonelawLtd @moving_charlie Except George Osborne signed this shoddy deal, so even conservatives are dumb.

Jesus H Christ some of the comments in this thread. 🤦🏻‍♂️ A blunt refusal to accept reality. It’s frightening how little most people understand about how government finances work. But it explains a lot.

@moving_charlie George Osborne is to blame for signing such a shoddy deal. Anyone who says the conservatives are fiscally responsible are kidding themselves.

@MortgageMikeN2 I mean fair enough any house within the M25 has value right now. Outside the M25 it's easy pickings for potential buyers.

@zlounds Yep, good luck trying to find a ‘deal’ in Stoke Newington.

Just to give you a view of the gap between sellers and buyers, we have a deal agreed nearly 6 months ago where the seller couldn’t find a property to buy and now they have they are requesting an additional £100k from the buyers 🤯🤯🤯

@MortgageMikeN2 Depends where you live in the country.

@zlounds Easy to do if looking for a leasehold flat as lots of options. Looking for a family home 🏠 options much more restricted.