Aaron Arnold

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Aaron Arnold

Aaron Arnold

@zomoskeptical

Four directions and just two feet

Austin, TX Katılım Ağustos 2014
1.9K Takip Edilen549 Takipçiler
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Tbf, I didn’t think that in the first few days. Even after decapitation had failed I thought Iran could be disarmed. It was only when I explicitly wrote down the drone war model that I discovered that the US was facing strategic defeat. Wrote it up on March 6.
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Bruno Maçães@MacaesBruno

I only saw two people say when the war started that said it would be a US defeat. @policytensor and myself. But now it seems there were hundreds

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Crémieux
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil·
WAIT A SECOND CHINA JUST MADE TOMACCO REAL
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Niko McCarty.@NikoMcCarty

Nearly 200 years after nicotine was first chemically isolated, we’ve finally figured out its complete biosynthesis pathway. Doing so required an insane effort and many years of work. The authors — a Chinese group — ended up crossing 643 lines of tobacco plants to find a single mutant incapable of making nicotine. They next backcrossed and inbred that plant to figure out the specific mutations, in various genes, and map the enzymes responsible. Nicotine is made from two “ring-shaped” molecules fused together. One ring has five carbons (the “pyrrolidine ring”) and the second has six carbons (the “pyridine ring.”) Scientists already knew quite a bit about how these rings get made, but not every step, and not how tthey join together to make nicotine. The pyrrolidine ring starts when ornithine, an amino acid that is not used to make proteins, gets its carbon dioxide clipped off by an enzyme, called ornithine decarboxylase, to make putrescine. This putrescine then has a methyl group attached to it, and gets oxidized. At this point, the molecule is a chain with four carbon atoms; one end has an amine, and the other a methylated amine. The amine end gets cut off and replaced with a reactive aldehyde; the chain folds into a loop; and the methylated amine “attacks” electrons on the aldehyde to form the ring. To make the pyridine ring, plant cells first take aspartate (the amino acid) and oxidize it. The resulting molecule is then transformed into nicotinic acid mononucleotide, which is just vitamin B3 with a sugar and phosphate attached. This paper is the first to report that NAMN hydrolase clips off the sugar and phosphate to release pure vitamin B3; also called niacin or nicotinic acid. (The names are slightly confusing.) The paper’s major contribution, though, is in figuring out how the two rings get fused together. The nicotinic acid is unstable, so an enzyme quickly attaches a sugar to it. Another enzyme, called A622, then strips off a CO2 group, making the molecule reactive again. And finally, that reactive intermediate “attacks” the five-membered pyrrolidine ring to join the two halves together. Other enzymes strip off the remaining sugar to make nicotine. (This whole pathway is shown in the image below.) All of this happens on the surface of plant vacuoles. Many of the chemical intermediates are toxic, so they need to be sequestered and converted quickly. And as soon as the final nicotine gets made, a transporter pumps it into the vacuole, where it is stored away. It’s actually difficult to wrap my head around the amount of work packed into this paper, so I’ll just give some quick bullet points: 1. They grew 643 inbred plant lines, which were made by crossing together 26 different parent tobacco plants. They extracted metabolites from all of them. 2. They did a bunch of single-cell RNA sequencing on the tobacco roots to figure out which cells actually express the nicotine biosynthesis genes. 3. “Stumbled” upon a mutant plant which was not able to make nicotine, and then sequenced its entire genome. They also crossed back this plant and inbred it for two generations to find the mutation responsible; a single C-to-T swap. This experiment alone must have taken at least two years of work. 4. Fed plants with isotopically “heavy” nicotinic acid and then tracked its movements through metabolic pathways. 5. Collected at least 630 mass spectrometry spectra. 6. RECONSTITUTED THE ENTIRE PATHWAY IN FOUR DIFFERENT SPECIES: YEAST, TOMATO, EGGPLANTS, AND PEAS (!!!!!!!!) 7. And a lot more… Anyway, insane paper. China has been putting out incredible plant biology papers for the last several years.

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Saloni
Saloni@salonium·
I’m a disbeliever in accidental discoveries (at least, in biology). Whenever I’ve looked into one, the story turns out to be false. The most famous is penicillin – supposedly, the fungi wafted in through a window, fell into a petri dish of cultured staphylococci, and suppressed the bacteria’s growth. But in a recent article (asimov.press/p/penicillin-m…), @kevinsblake explains that doesn’t really work (grown staphylococci aren’t affected by penicillin; it only works if introduced before the bacteria begin growing); plus, Fleming’s notes on the discovery provide very little detail and the specific results he described couldn’t be replicated by other scientists (even though penicillin does work against staphylococci when introduced correctly.) There are more: Pasteur’s supposedly accidental discovery of a chicken cholera vaccine was more likely the result of systematic work by his then-assistant, Émile Roux. (jstor.org/stable/2332836…) And, as @NikoMcCarty writes, the discovery of GFP, nanopore sequencing, and optogenetics are also often described as accidents, but none of them happened that way either. nikomc.com/2026/04/01/opt… People love serendipity, so why am I bursting their bubble? I don’t think this is limited to accidental discoveries; I think many historical science anecdotes are highly embellished: - Edward Jenner didn’t deliberately expose a young boy with full-blown smallpox to test his vaccine (he used variolation); and he wasn’t the first to try using cowpox bsky.app/profile/scient… - Cobra catching bounties in British India didn’t lead to a rise in the number of snakebites, and there was only hearsay evidence that cobras were bred in response at all twitter-thread.com/t/169650089580… - Barry Marshall didn’t develop stomach ulcers from drinking a concoction of H. pylori (he did develop gastritis though…) cdn.centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/upl… - No one knows who actually found the highly-productive strain of penicillin on a cantaloupe, but it probably wasn’t 'Moldy Mary' scientificdiscoveries.ars.usda.gov/tellus/stories… But in this case it irks me for an additional reason – it gives the impression that innovation happens sporadically, by chance, when there are actually ways that we can systematically speed it up – such as better funding, institutions and incentives. So: are there any true accidental discoveries that hold up to scrutiny?
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Richard Deitsch
Richard Deitsch@richarddeitsch·
I'm not a fan of the Kennedy mythology by any means but I always thought this was a hell of a paragraph from JFK and his speech writers.
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Joni Askola
Joni Askola@joni_askola·
It is crazy how few people know this: Russia now occupies less Ukrainian land than it did one month into the full-scale invasion four years ago
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Nicholas Decker
Nicholas Decker@captgouda24·
The three largest institutional investors control 21% of the U.S. stock market. What might it look like if they caused firms to collude with each other to raise and prices and reduce quality? And are they doing that right now? Let's go read this masterpiece together. 1/
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Allen Downey
Allen Downey@AllenDowney·
Working on a Bayesian model to decompose period and cohort effects. As an example, it looks like the "rise of the Nones" (increase in people with no religious affiliation) has stalled. Cohort or period effect? Turns out, both. allendowney.com/blog/2026/03/3…
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Scott Lincicome
Scott Lincicome@scottlincicome·
Excellent, data-rich thread - and exactly the right way to judge the Liberation Day tariffs (ie, by the President's own standards/promises). THIS is why tariff fans obsess over pre-TACO predictions of Tariff Armageddon & claim "victory" when the worst doesn't come to pass.
Erica York@ericadyork

This week is the one-year anniversary of Trump's "Liberation Day." Instead of focusing on whether predictions made when tariffs were at their peak came to pass, let's ask whether the tariffs actually imposed achieved the Trump administration’s stated goals.

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Future Adam Curtis B-Roll
Future Adam Curtis B-Roll@adamcurtisbroll·
F-35 Lightning II jets approach Nellis Air Force Base during Red Flag 25-1 exercises as the Las Vegas Sphere displays a smiling emoji face, January 2025.
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VB Knives
VB Knives@Empty_America·
The Smiths didn't used to be a major band, mostly listened to by low-rider Chicanos for some reason. Jennifer Connelly was sort of a B+ celb in the 90s. Few Americans knew who Kate Bush in the 80s, she wasn't even on MTV much if at all. Retroactive Celebrity.
Post-Menshevik@Fullantho

@Empty_America Do young people know that The Smiths were not a big band when they were around?

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elliot
elliot@antipode_elliot·
@technorural @Empty_America I remember even way back in the 90s, Moz's odd popularity among Latinos was regularly remarked upon.
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lusso
lusso@luusssso·
Just discovered 1920s German Brick Expressionism and my life will never be the same
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Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦
Jessica Riedl 🧀 🇺🇦@JessicaBRiedl·
And, finally, a comparison of fiscal records of the past 4 presidents using identical methodology that focuses on bills and executive orders signed - rather than deficit changes driven by less-controllable economic & technical factors.
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Xianyang City Bureaucrat
Xianyang City Bureaucrat@XianyangCB·
Part two of my history of ancient Chinese attitudes to sex. Link below.
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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
Famously (there is a beautiful Works in Progress piece on this) in 2016, Geoffrey Hinton told an audience in Toronto that medical schools should stop training radiologists, since AI would soon outperform them at reading scans. Ten years later, there are more radiologists than ever, and they earn more than they did then. Hinton was right about the task, but he was wrong (so far!) on the future of the radiology profession. Times have never been better for them. The gap between those two claims, the difference between tasks and jobs, is the subject of a paper I have written with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu, and that we release today: "Weak Bundle, Strong Bundle: How AI Redraws Job Boundaries." (Very relatedly we are also finishing the first draft of our book "Messy Jobs" on AI and Jobs!! You will be the first to hear). We start from the observation that the growing literature on AI and labor markets measures the AI shock by task exposure: people count how many tasks AI can perform in a given occupation AI can perform, and infer that more exposure means more displacement. Eloundou et al. published a paper in Science in 2024 that started this literature, and many follow the same logic. The inference they make is that the more exposed tasks, the worse the outcomes. This is incomplete, because labor markets price jobs, not tasks. A radiologist does not just sell image classification, but does many other jobs: triages cases, communicates with other physicians, trains residents, makes the difficult decisions, and signs a diagnosis. The market buys a bundled service. The question AI poses is not whether it can do one task inside the bundle. The question is whether that task can be pulled out. Thread (1/3) dropbox.com/scl/fo/689u1g7…
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Cameron 🇺🇸 🗽🦅
Cameron 🇺🇸 🗽🦅@CameronCorduroy·
the mainstream political media intentionally sanewashes the Presidents' press conferences and speeches in realty he's just rambling incoherently
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Aaron Arnold
Aaron Arnold@zomoskeptical·
@femboyliberty The embargo explains at most a tenth of their horrific economic performance since the early 60s. x.com/vincentgeloso/…
Vincent Geloso@VincentGeloso

The joint work by @JamiePavlik, @jpmvbastos and myself is the definitive work on Cuba’s economic path since 1958. We show that the divergence is largely explained by the Revolution and the Regime’s policies. The embargo doesn’t help but it explains barely 10% of the gap with the "no revolution" counterfactual.

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femboy libertarian 🇺🇸🦔
femboy libertarian 🇺🇸🦔@femboyliberty·
Leftists hype up the cuban embargo so much i legit thought it was a full on blockade but nooo its just a normal boring embargo
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