Know Both Sides

Iran launches 7 waves of attacks against Israel in 10 hours and opens fire on Peshmerga base Recent movements also indicate that Iran is anticipating a ground offensive along the Kuwaiti border. Over the past night, Iran launched seven waves of missile strikes against Israel and continues to carry out new waves today across several cities, taking advantage of missile rationing in certain regions. This move coincides with a report from the Anadolu Agency, which indicates that Iranian retaliatory strikes against Gulf countries have decreased, while the impact on Israel has significantly increased. Iran may currently be recalibrating its operations against Gulf nations and preparing for a potential escalation. The border region between Iran, Kuwait, and Khuzestan has received intense attention from both sides in recent weeks. Iran has intensified its attacks against Kuwait, believing that a potential ground invasion could originate from that direction. The occupation of the Iranian province of Khuzestan and the strategic Kharg Island would be greatly facilitated by the area’s flat, open terrain, similar to the advancement route used by Saddam Hussein during the 1980 invasion of Iran. On the 23rd, Iran reported US-Israeli strikes against its gas infrastructure in several cities. The primary target was the city of Khorramshahr, near the Kuwaiti border, where a pipeline was hit, the fifth recorded attack on this key regional city. To ensure air superiority during the offensive, anti-aircraft defense batteries protecting the city’s industrial and port zones were targeted early by drones and GMLRS launched from Kuwait. Missile launch sites and UAV (drone) command centers in nearby cities, such as Ahvaz, were also struck by coalition fire. On the same day, Iran launched several waves of attacks against American positions in Kuwait, leaving multiple cities without electricity. On another front, Iranian-linked militias operating in Iraq carried out a two-wave attack against a Peshmerga base. The facility hit is the 7th Division headquarters, located in the northern countryside of Hawler (Erbil), north of Shaqlawa. The installation was targeted by six ballistic missiles, resulting in 6 military fatalities and over 20 wounded. This Iranian movement, combined with multiple attacks on infrastructure along the Kuwaiti border, suggests that Tehran possesses intelligence regarding possible Kurdish militia support for an American ground assault. Why would this region be the focus of an invasion? 
Khuzestan is the country’s energy heart, accounting for about 80% of Iran’s total oil production. However, while the flat region sits at the foot of the mountain range, the allies would also need to secure the northern border with Iraq, as that was where many of the Iranian counter-attacks against Saddam took place. Everything points toward a major escalation.

Iran responded to the Trump administration’s ceasefire proposal with extensive demands: - Closure of all U.S. bases in the Gulf. - A new Strait of Hormuz framework allowing Iran to charge transit fees. - Full sanctions relief. - An end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah. - No discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Excerpts from a Chinese think tank paper analyzing the implications of an extended war with Iran. From a Chinese perspective it is a huge opportunity; not to become involved directly but to reroute safe capital to China and undermine the concept of a U.S.-led maritime empire into a land-based one in Eurasia that they can dominate:

The "Iran is losing" narrative is tracking the wrong number. Yes, missile and drone launch rates are down 90%+. But hit rate (or confirmed impacts per projectile fired) has been climbing steadily since Day 1. A 🧵 on what the data actually shows.

太美了！ 日本国歌“君が代”是世界最古老也是最简短的国歌，已有1000多年历史。歌词就20来个字，“愿你的时代，千代八千代，小石变成岩石，岩石长满青苔。” 日本的民族凝聚力令人肃然起敬。 我用了很多年才慢慢理解日本“间”文化。这首歌就体现了这一点，极致简单，想象无穷。

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 The IDF confirmed multiple sites in Tehran and central Iran (missile and weapons facilities) were struck. CENTCOM also confirmed precision strikes on IRGC-linked assets, like vessels tied to terror financing networks.