Claybrook Capital

@BoringBiz_ Sucks that us research associates can’t join!

If you are a finance college student right now, you should legitimately do everything you can to join this competition The judge panel is Dan Loeb, Philippe Laffont (Coatue) and Dan Yao (Silver Lake) Forget the dollar prize award If you can make a solid and impressive stock pitch, you can potentially set yourself up for an analyst seat at one of these firms The ROI of that alone is absolutely insane If I was in college, I would have signed up just to get the chance to shake hands with one of these folks Insanely good career opportunity if you put in the work

@hypersoren Return of the long term qualitative SM ??

tier 2 hedge funds loading up on “ai people” as third stage of grief HF used to have alt data and quant advantages but both commodified or soon there The hiring spree won’t last / smart ones jumping to private markets where unfair context advantages can still be found

@PythiaR Get ready to learn rails, you got 2.

With these new monetization rules I'm going to have to start posting more about great Canadian companies like... um... uh... and... um... erm... uhhh... well... Anyways I'll get back to you on what those are but you're going to be hearing a LOT more about them now.

I mean in terms of usefulness these are coded and I can’t code so ya. I also use it to edit my work for grammar and stuff and then also helping me understand industry/business terms things like that as I ramp (but that’s the obvious research assistant part) What are you using it for? I know you are using for modeling and writeups / portfolio reflections?

Projects: SaaS flight sim App that turns any article into podcast (low hanging fruit) Mostly alt data scrapers for investments / visualization tools for incestments Networking/recruiting database Primary research tool for aggregating company contacts for LinkedIn out reach or calling customers Also a RuneScape private server lol

If you’ve ever felt that you had the direction, judgement, and creativity to direct work, but never had the chance to do that in a traditional workplace, now’s your time. LLMs are effectively your staff. You can choose the topic, define the tasks, refine the product, without needing anyone’s permission. They never tire and they’re as accurate as you are or can be. You have no excuse. It’s an amazing opportunity.

$R good way to play it now imo. No freight recovery baked into guide. Contracts lag spot. DTS will have incremental upside with CDL crackdown and used vehicle sales prob get a tailwind in back half from higher input costs. Obviously not as much torque as some others. Knight swift good too imo

Trucking has held up sneakily well last week or so. All data pointing to rates continuing to march unbated

Geothermal’s investment growth has been remarkable. I remember toiling away in those years where total funding for the sector didn’t clear $0.0 billion.

What's the PE if capex is down >50%? Every bull case from here on semis (IMO) needs to start by explaining how great the ROIC is going to be for all the hyperscalers and their customers. And then you need to explain why on a risk adjusted basis these are better bets than the hyperscalers themselves (who go up on a capex cut not down 70%).

@MRatable Can’t unsee this now. “We are generating cash, not spending it” No shade to Nima tho

I dare you to read the Blend Labs earnings call and not conclude that the prepared remarks were written by AI

I got to google search and then switch to ai and then toggle think longer but only works from that method. Alpha sense pretty solid imo just bc has all the filings and industry journals and SS research (expert interviews too if that’s your jazz) but given you are PE I think probably less useful and it can’t do any production based stuff yet just research assistant mainly (which is still useful)

@MagicCompounds Yep have alpha sense but have personally never used. Any tips for accessing Gemini? I can’t even access my Gmail account lol

Recently started at a MF - ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, all blocked. Copilot (the shittest one) only. Wtf?

Anthropic draft: "Product visions for early 2025" June 15, 2023

Claude code project I have been working through on the side, SaaS flight sim. Get a general idea of what various SaaS products are like from a ux perspective, the goal being to reduce some of the opaqueness of these products to investors.. @TMTLongShort had the idea originally I believe. Will continue to try to make the product more realistic and add tickers! peaceful-granita-82b0e4.netlify.app

@Pray4Equity I like thanks

Short $DE — Farmers are liable to defer equipment purchases when margins compress. Sounds like farmers are going to get squeezed, and DE trades at 30x TTM with only marginal earnings growth. Forward estimates imply a bottoming of the ags cycle and management has said that much as well. That may have been true before this Hormuz fiasco but it seems like, no longer.

@FreightAlley @blueprintsmb22 When the demand comes tho….

@blueprintsmb22 Its all capacity driven, but demand is increasing along with tighter supplies. The spot clearing price doesn't move up because diesel costs are higher, it increases because brokers must pay more to move a load.

Trucking spot rates +$.03/overnight to $2.87/mile, a new cycle high. Trucking spot rates haven't been this high since 2022. We are +$.12 in the past week alone.

@evrgn11112231 thanks for replies and optimism is a great point I dont hear a ton. Best of luck, I am sure you will get where you want and as younger in my journey who has (and will) have to overcome pro adversity, I really appreciate your insights.

Setup for institutional raise from day 1, still on that track. Many things still live and hopefully will have some clarity on soon. Not interested in hiring again until $300-500mm likely. It turns out one man setup is actually pretty ideal for what I do. Hard to know if adversity forges resilience or reveals it. Prob a bit of both. You need it whatever the cause imo.

Deep breathes and context. When life gets tough I always try to remember how privileged we all really are and how much worse life can be relative to whatever difficulties we are facing (personally or collectively) in any given moment. Personally, I’ve had a tough go of things in life many times over yet at the same time have always managed to land on my feet and things consistently work out in ways that I never could have planned or imagined. Not really because of anything special about who I am or what I’ve done, but rather in spite of those things, in my opinion. We all need to draw strength from something, and for me that is a lifelong relationship with God - without whom I am certain my life would have looked very different. I’m not supposed to be here: I’m one of five kids raised by a single Mom from a very middle class family. My Dad was a pastor who blew up his church (in exactly the worst ways you would think) and left my family when I was 10. He moved to another state where he married a black jack dealer 16 years younger than him and raised her kids instead of us. My Mom had severe mental health struggles most of my childhood so as the second youngest, I was fairly neglected and had to learn to fend for myself at a young age. All of this, as you can imagine, was pretty painful - but through it, I grew a lot. And built a lot of resilience - out of necessity. Not ideal but it turns out that resilience and grit would be valuable for me one day. Those attributes and a call to service led my brother and I to join the Army at a time of war - which we ended up seeing a lot of, up close. I’m lucky to be alive with all my limbs in tact. I lost more friends to combat, alcohol, suicide and other forms of self harm than I could even care to keep track of. Again - too painful. But more resilience. Like many young soldiers from the south, I got married and had kids young. We weren’t ready to be parents but we figured it out. Years later we had a messy divorce that was a nightmare for my kids and myself as I realized I was powerless to protect my kids from the trauma I suffered as a child. I didn’t think I would recover from that, but I did. I later remarried and have a far healthier and happier relationship now than I ever knew possible. When I got out of the military I went to school on the GI Bill and discovered I had a gift for investing. I could understand and do things with a natural fluency that is impossible to explain. This wasn’t anything I ever dreamed about, but the gravitational pull could not be ignored - I was built for this. Setting aside the cognitive capabilities which I can only describe as something i discovered existing inside me in a somewhat random fashion - it turned out I had something perhaps even more valuable which I never asked for and would happily trade away for a life of normalcy: All the accumulated pain from my life gave me a kind of exoskeleton that allowed me to absorb and navigate chaos, which is pretty useful for concentrated investing. I hustled my way into investing roles that I wasn’t qualified for. And now am somehow more than 2 years into a journey of starting my own firm with no clarity of how the story ends, as in spite of a great pedigree and performance, I still have no outside capital. Do I know what tomorrow holds? No. But I’m not supposed to be here. And it’s going to be ok.

They are doing all the right things but the guide doesn’t include serious ME headwinds, if this continues will be demand destruction. Plus you’re spinning out freight so they aren’t going to grab the cyclical upswing that’s coming once demand solidifies. Also not sure how they wanna handle the balance sheet, credit market had been pricing in an upgrade to BBB+ but that implies use of proceed from freight recap goes to BS vs growth or shareholder returns.. idk lots of moving pieces and to your point over earning a bit Freight may be interesting post spin

@sj_xxxxxxx I think it’s a short now

do you think the majority of investors think $FDX is currently over-earning?