Bubble Trouble

@GavMcCracken This is the funny thing about DOGE accomplishing almost nothing. My work is mostly government funded and the insane inefficiencies I see every day are nuts. Proposed changes that could save literal millions with minimal effort, but my boss’s boss doesn’t wanna ask her boss’s boss

Dealing with bureaucrats is genuinely fucking hilarious. The West has become a shithole filled with weak people that need to follow every written rule without malleability. It's actually insane how bad the average bureaucrat is at ensuring efficient workflow and progress.

@jmurph312 @AndrewTradesNQ @unusual_whales Yeah I saved $30k in the last year and my Uncle asked how this alone isn’t enough for a house down payment and I just could not stop laughing.

@AndrewTradesNQ @unusual_whales I’d rather have the house than no net worth

Home sellers now exceed buyers by over 600,000, marking the widest gap on record, per Redfin.

@Mathiassouth @calvinfroedge Idk sounds like, and I know this is crazy, but sounds like built in redundancies and contingency plans might actually be a good idea.

@calvinfroedge I'm Swedish and I'm super worried. But we have zero gas or oil in our energy system. But what will happen to Germany? Holy f. They will implode. Only thing saving them is the summer season but if this drags out until the fall, how will they heat their homes?!

My trolls are awful quiet as of late It's not like I wanted to be right about this I love the United States of America I just wish it wasn't controlled by evil people and retards And I wish we weren't starting pointless wars in the Middle East

@CityofSeattle @PrimoWater Would love it if y’all DIDN’T illegally block the crosswalk in downtown Seattle. Truck was not stuck in the middle of traffic, it was fully parked and people were walking around it into the traffic intersection.

@GavMcCracken @Anand_Venkatram @VijayT1609 @calvinfroedge Holy hell man, how leveraged to the tits are you

@Anand_Venkatram @VijayT1609 @calvinfroedge A ton of success, though today it was the fact I put about 70% of my net worth via margin loans into oil that saved me

Initiated starter in $GDX and $XMA , biggest gold miner ETFs (outperfromed underlying gold over last 1 year) Slowly diversifying into Japan, other EMs thru ETF + holding select Big tech I dont believe the bear thesis for gold (yet) Slowly diversifiying into Japan, other EMs thru ETF + holding select Big tech $GDX/ $GLD is currency till i move out of USD permanently Lets see how it pans out

@kevinxu I love following you because it reminds me you don’t have to know shit about squat and you can still get rich in equities.

the short squeeze next month is gonna be insane

@Veeshalnarote12 @invdiary @calvinfroedge Good to keep in mind for sure, thanks for sharing

@invdiary @calvinfroedge youtube.com/shorts/Mx68fEB… Rick Rule knows his history U shd listen to what he recounts This is not a twitter argument.. Its what they've done historically

Anyone pricing in a 20% Volcker rate following Iran driving down metals doesn't understand that the US had a 31% debt to GDP ratio in 1979 It's more than 4x higher today 4% long term rates bankrupts America 20% does it practically overnight Don't sell your metals

@resourcebull Me looking at you with 30% in gold miners and buying more

The only one who looks at you when you are 10% gold miners $GDX

Imagine if instead UK removed windfall taxes on the North Sea and provided unlimited debt at 0.5% interest rates to anyone who wants to boost North Sea oil production, and promises they won't windfall tax again. Imagine how quickly work would start; could've done this weeks ago!

@GavMcCracken Bought everyday the last week 💪

Bought some more Minera Alamos $MAI.V $MAIFF today

Reading Dune. Frank Herbert was cooking.

@GavMcCracken @michaeljmcnair Fair enough, maybe I’ve gotten too impatient looking for answers.

I'm not sure it makes sense to me. It ignores the fact governments can print money and buy gold to panic hedge. I think the market is very complicated right now and any "simplistic views", while nice, will make too many simplifying assumptions. e.g. I expect Western retail inflows to physical gold to increase

Gold and silver are not acting well in a period of rapidly rising geopolitical risks. We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility. In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. But once you understand what is now driving gold, this move makes perfect sense. Something fundamental changed after the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022. For decades, surplus countries parked their excess savings in US dollar assets, mostly Treasuries. The freezing of Russian reserves combined with the current administration's explicit push to discourage foreign countries from parking excess savings in US financial assets, forced surplus countries to rethink where they store reserves. And those countries haven't changed their domestic policies that generate the excess savings, so those savings have to be placed somewhere. The result is that gold and silver have increasingly become the obvious “neutral” reserve assets. That’s why gold decoupled from the three factors that used to explain it…real interest rates, volatility, and liquidity. Now reserve accumulation flows have become the primary driver. That shift has a consequence I don’t think most investors have thought through. If gold is now primarily driven by reserve flows from surplus countries, then gold has become pro-cyclical. Reserve growth is driven by export revenues, trade surpluses, economic growth in surplus economies. When the global economy is strong and surplus countries are generating large export revenues, their excess savings grow, their reserve accumulation accelerates, and gold catches a bid. When that surplus generation is disrupted, the bid weakens or reverses. This is exactly what is happening with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The GCC countries are major reserve/gold buyers and now their export revenues are collapsing. They likely need to liquidate some reserves to cover fiscal obligations, and gold is one of their most liquid assets. Even if the reserve sales aren’t excessive yet, the market can see their reserve accumulation has stalled and probably reversed. That flow, which was a meaningful source of gold demand, has gone to zero at best. There are also secondary effects on other surplus economies. China is the world's largest oil importer. An energy shock of this magnitude slows Chinese growth, and compresses Chinese surpluses, which slows Chinese reserve accumulation. That same growth shock ripples through Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the rest of Asia. The whole chain that has been driving gold higher, surplus countries generating excess savings that need a home outside the dollar system, is being disrupted by an event that in the old model would have been unambiguously bullish for gold. This doesn't mean the structural case for gold is broken. The dollar standard is still ending. Surplus countries still need an alternative to Treasuries and gold is still the most obvious destination. But it does mean gold is going to be more volatile along that structural trend than most people expect, and the volatility will correlate with global growth and surplus generation rather than with the old drivers. Gold rallies when surpluses expand. Gold sells off when surpluses contract. Even if the reason for the contraction is rising geopolitical risk that, under the old model, should have sent gold to the moon.

@JosephPerrin37 @kevinxu You have any advice for where to learn this? I’m terrified about having kids because of this.

@kevinxu Probably doesn’t have systems in place to manage a household. It’s not easy and our culture doesn’t pass along that knowledge the way it use to be done.

friend of mine finally got a house, wife, and kids never seen him more stressed in his life

@aleabitoreddit Always gonna be haters if enough people see your content. Don’t let it get to you, it’s just statistics. I appreciate you sharing.

Normally don’t respond to trolls, but the hypocrisy on this platform is pretty impressive. Random X retail: “Why didn’t you tell me about $LITE before it went up 1000% already?” Me: “Posts my thesis about the next possible $LITE at the very beginning, without paywalls.” X retail: 😡, “I’m going to pay $400 for a paywall to long $ADBE and short $PLTR instead”. Especially after my $AXTI thesis that already went from $12->$50 in 3 months... I distribute all my thought processes for free. And markets can price in any alpha immediately or however they want. (I get things wrong as well, especially with names like $ETOR that crashed from $65 to $33). However, instead of the original model where analysts sell a thesis for $2000+ to other hedge funds to slowly accumulate. Then retail buys at $40 billion+ as seen with $LITE. My account’s been growing because I’m one of the few analysts to break that model. And I distribute novel information synthesis for free to everyone. Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits if a thesis is directionally correct.

@Cr34t0r1 I was in this stock last year but I’ve just gotten too sketched out about it. Theranos had a lot of credibility indicators like this too.

$hgraf Good points on why it's not a scam..... Per Reddit dude.

@EquityBrian Clearly you’re not calculating for Electric Boogaloo 2: Houthis Close the Red Sea

Iran conflict is past its peak. Oil topped. Sunday night futures are going to rip. Will delete if wrong…

@jukan05 Bakeries/cafes, pizza, and high class New American cuisine (think 3 Michelin stars). Good Asian food ofc, but you’re from Asia so I’m not sure it’s worth spending time on that. Haven’t been to SF in a while though. Might be worth getting a luxurious modern style burger somewhere.

In San Francisco, what food is good? I kind of want to try Chick-fil-A.

@aleabitoreddit It’s hilarious how the market is so confused about this stock

Do you think markets know $META makes all their revenue from selling ads? Not farming avocados? -4% selloff for a total of -16.92% this past month is a bit too much.

@aleabitoreddit I don’t disagree with any of it, and appreciate you sharing what you do, so you got a new sub 🎉

I’m independent compared to others who work at research firms or funds. So I’m allowed to speak my mind about someone who charges millions to compare $PLTR, a defense contractor, with small business blogging helpers. Best of all, the following him are also losing more money on top in the market.

I’m genuinely impressed: People are collectively paying Michael Burry $10 million + in yearly subscription fees. Just to lose money on both $PLTR and $ADBE. On top of their $400+ yearly sub fee. There were signs when they tried comparing Hubspot small business blogging valuations. To Palantir’s black box AI programs used to invade Iran and Venezuela. When they feel the need to block anyone on X because their arguments can’t hold up to public debate… Maybe you’re following the wrong person?