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Kelly Soderlund
10.7K posts
Kelly Soderlund
@KellyLSoderlund
Head of Insights @Samsara. Past: Head of Comms @Navan @TripIt Hipmunk (RIP). SF State Journalism alum. Opinions my own.
SF Bay Area Присоединился Kasım 2012
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@mllichti @thecsguy @samuel_spitz I feel like you are missing my point. I didn’t say they’d hit a wall; I stated that there’s a high likelihood that the market will correct AI model valuations at IPO based on historicals.
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@KellyLSoderlund @thecsguy @samuel_spitz What are some historical examples you're looking at of companies with $20B in ARR with 10X YoY growth suddenly hitting a wall?
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Everyone I know in SF who’s not at OpenAI/Anthropic is freaking out about how their friends are about to make $5-50M with these IPOs
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@mllichti @thecsguy @samuel_spitz You’re assuming it won’t. I’m just looking at historicals post-Covid and post ZIRP.
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@KellyLSoderlund @thecsguy @samuel_spitz OpenAI revenue is growing over 3X per year, but that's still plenty fast.
Growth companies are always priced based on where they'll be in a few years.
You're assuming growth will hit a wall soon, but there's no indication of that.
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@mllichti @thecsguy @samuel_spitz Current valuations are priced for a market that doesn't fully exist. I was not specifically referencing Anthropic; private valuations are notoriously inflated.
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@KellyLSoderlund @thecsguy @samuel_spitz What is your basis for saying the valuation is inflated? Anthropic revenue is still growing over 10X per year. The market cap 6 months after IPO will probably be much higher than the current valuation.
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@mllichti @thecsguy @samuel_spitz Sure, but then the market corrects the inflated valuation and employees lose money (share value higher than market value even with employees discount)
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@thecsguy @samuel_spitz There's normally a 6 month lockup, but then you absolutely can liquidate that much cash.
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Kelly Soderlund ретвитнул
Got my first PR pitch from an OpenClaw agent, just a few journalistic faux pas semafor.com/article/03/27/…
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@RMac18 Go direct is often (not always) just “I don’t agree with media and they aren’t giving me the favorable coverage of which I am entitled, simply bc I say so; or, they ignore me and now I have a massive chip in my shoulder and don’t want to do the work to prove value to press”
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few people care about this thing that i am taking the time to read, screenshot, and post to tell them not to care
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Kelly Soderlund ретвитнул
BREAKING: USPS will impose its first-ever surcharge on packages — an 8% fee to cover the rising cost of fuel.
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Kelly Soderlund ретвитнул
@chamath Samsara does this (ground ops) for many US airports and airlines
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From my friends who are pilots:
“We can and should deploy the ground tracking systems like Thales does in Europe, tied in with a central system that does the routing, and then controllers sit on top of the whole thing and watch for exceptions”
In other words, technology…
BNO News@BNONews
WATCH: New video shows Air Canada flight crashing into rescue truck at New York airport
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@MikeIsaac Looks like it could be a vintage Heath. (Also agree, will not go back, love my butter keeper)
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getting a butter bell legit changed my life
im putting softened butter on everything i own
jamon beurre for days 🧈 🍖
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Kelly Soderlund ретвитнул
Small truck drivers in the U.S. are feeling some of the first economic effects of the rapid surge in the cost of diesel, and a broader economic impact could hit soon on.wsj.com/4d4o7de
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@seekingtau Plus one. If they had said this about startups or commercial (even midmarket), probably would have been fine
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Two things can be true:
that Ramp payment data is a rich dataset capable of identifying market trends
that the dataset is heavily indexed towards startups and thus makes it tough to extrapolate to the broader market, especially when the ultimate target is enterprise buyers
Eric Glyman@eglyman
If your kid’s lemonade stand processes 0.5–1% of US GDP, then yes, that’s a fair analogy for @tryramp. Ramp’s data is useful for the same reason it gets cited at all: it is quite consistent with the revenue figures OpenAI and Anthropic release. If it weren’t, no one would care.
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Approximately 0 companies on this list were reliant on paid ads
Raj Vir@rjvir
Breakthrough consumer products in the past ~20 years by founding region: SF Bay Area: 21 LA: 2 Other: 1 New York: ZERO
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Kelly Soderlund ретвитнул
Behind every new driver is someone who showed them it was possible. This Women's History Month, we partnered with Clarissa Rankin and @wim_ata to celebrate women in trucking with a free limited-edition magnet. Claim yours: bit.ly/4lALmxA
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Claude can build the survey workflows, but Qualtrics has the network/ distro
Alex Clayton@afc
Anthropic, one of the most innovative companies in the world, is using Qualtrics, which was founded in 2002, as its survey tool for Cowork users. Anthropic's core business is building the world's leading models, not survey tools. While they could do it, why spend the time and resources? Hard to imagine a world where companies in-house a significant part of 3rd-party apps, simply because they want to focus on what their business does best.
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@afc Not sure the “ai will eat software” argument works when the one building the ai is still deciding that it’s better to buy than build products not germane to core business?
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Anthropic, one of the most innovative companies in the world, is using Qualtrics, which was founded in 2002, as its survey tool for Cowork users.
Anthropic's core business is building the world's leading models, not survey tools. While they could do it, why spend the time and resources?
Hard to imagine a world where companies in-house a significant part of 3rd-party apps, simply because they want to focus on what their business does best.
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1. It turns out Dick’s is the big winner in the $40 billion game of youth sports.
2. Free money! (Really.)
And speaking of free, here’s a gift link to my @WSJ column:
wsj.com/business/retai…
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@TheStalwart Would be surprised if ecosystem around earnings would allow this to pass. A lot of money around earnings.
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Switching to semi-annual disclosure is probably fine. But I’m highly skeptical that it will have any effect on this dimension. The intense pressure to make money fast comes from the reality that investors have options and all things equal want more, faster profits.
Faiz@fshakir
I'm generally in favor of this reform. Corprations face too much pressure by the investor class to churn profits on shorter time frames. That helps passive income earners place more bets and reap more gains. Corprations should instead be thinking about long term sustainability.
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@RachaelRad Most of the stuff AI spits out around PR and releases lacks nuance, SME, and more.
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Thanks to AI, anyone in an org should be able to "write the press release" about a product you're working on. Even better, write the WSJ or Bloomberg story (headline and paragraphs) and show it to the Comms team and see what they think.
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