Justin

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Justin

Justin

@KeystoneObsrvr

Politics, Books, Pittsburgh Pirates, and then some. Pennsylvanian. Husband. Dad x 2. NoVA denizen.

Virginia Присоединился Temmuz 2013
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
And as a follow up- we just had our 2nd this past month. Mom and baby and toddler all doing fine. Will endeavor to have less time on this hellsite.
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Guy Benson
Guy Benson@guypbenson·
No Kings.
Guy Benson tweet mediaGuy Benson tweet media
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@CTIronman Also the advent of satellite coms, smartphones, and social media where you really can keep in close touch with family back home (and the culture) vs you know - never seeing them again if you emigrate via the old ships
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CTIronman
CTIronman@CTIronman·
Compare the weeks it took coffin ships to sail from Cobh to NYC in the 1800’s to jets putting virtually every city on the planet less than a day’s trip away from JFK
Reihan Salam@reihan

Every major technological shock in American history has reshaped the politics of immigration. I suspect AI will be no different Natural barriers to immigration — the cost of ocean passage, geopolitical turmoil, technological limitations — have always exerted selective pressure on who could actually make the journey. When those barriers fall, the character of immigrant inflows changes. It's at this point that political entrepreneurs step in, reaching for public policy to restore the frictions that geography, cost, and conflict had previously imposed. Formal immigration restriction, in this reading, can be understood as an effort to recreate what had been “natural” barriers. Consider the Napoleonic Wars, which suppressed European emigration for years. That prolonged lull had a powerful consolidating effect on early American culture. When the wars ended and transportation costs began falling, the U.S. experienced a large influx of Irish and German Catholic immigrants which engendered a sharp backlash from native-born Anglo-Protestant “Know-Nothings.” As more migration channels became viable, selective pressure eased and source countries diversified. The same dynamic played out on the West Coast, where the growth of transpacific shipping dramatically lowered the cost of migration from China — and the political response was the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, backed by a coalition that united “old stock” Anglo-Protestants with “new stock” German and Irish Catholics. More recently, the advent of offshoring reshaped the politics of immigration by changing the incentives of U.S. employers: once firms could move production overseas rather than import low-skill labor, globally competitive manufacturers — a key constituency for open immigration — defected from the coalition. The result was a narrowing of business support for expansive immigration policy, leaving low-skill immigration increasingly without powerful institutional defenders. Today, the collapsing cost of migration from the Global South is having a similar effect, and the restrictionist coalition is broadening to include first- and second-generation Americans of Latin American and Asian origin. The ideological framing changes (anti-Catholicism, anti-Chinese sentiment, categorical opposition to unauthorized inflows, concern about welfare dependence, etc.), but the consistent throughline is that restrictionists are responding to a technological shock and its cultural and economic reverberations. One reason I favor making immigration policy more selective is that well-designed selectivity can increase the benefits of immigrant inflows — to fiscal sustainability, labor markets, the age structure of the population, etc. — while reducing the disruptions that generate political backlash. This is not merely a historical curiosity. As AI and automation reshape labor markets across the skill distribution, the economic rationale for non-selective immigrant inflows is eroding, adding a new dimension to the case for selectivity that cuts across the usual ideological lines.

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Lady Demosthenes
Lady Demosthenes@LadyDemosthenes·
Meal 4 form my experiment with this “5 dinners using ingredients from Trader Joe’s for $83” guide. (I shopped at HEB). Tonight was Creamy Boursin Tomato Pasta. This was amazing! It was also a crowd pleaser.
Lady Demosthenes tweet media
Lady Demosthenes@LadyDemosthenes

I am continuing this journey through the five recipes for five meals made with ingredients from Trader Joe’s for $83 (I shopped HEB but still). I’m celiac. For the crescent roll chicken pot pie I couldn’t use womp biscuits. So… I made them from “scratch” ish using this GF mix… we shall see.

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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@bdomenech Tribbett looking rough these days
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Benjamin Domenech
Benjamin Domenech@bdomenech·
This is my favorite side story to the VA gerrymander: "The lawsuit alleges that Tribbett is spreading the rumors [of a delegate affair and fake baby daddy for Spanberger's COS] after the maps he helped create were not used for redistricting." How catty! virginiascope.com/gov-spanberger…
Nick Minock@NickMinock

WATCH: Today, I asked @notlarrysabato about Spanberger’s spokesperson claiming, “There isn’t a Democrat in Virginia who has done more to encourage voters to support this referendum than Governor Spanberger.” “I mean, come on,” said Ben Tribbett. “No. I would say that @SenLouiseLucas who was the architect of the 10-1 map, who was the first one who spoke out on this, back when no one else supported a 10-1 map, is the person who did the most on this. But I’m glad everyone is participating.”

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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@CTIronman @jalvxv You’re seeing some of that in the eastern panhandle with new housing developments going up - but otherwise there’s not a lot going on in many places
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CTIronman
CTIronman@CTIronman·
@jalvxv I’m surprised with the low cost of housing and relative closeness to large metros it hasn’t tried to reinvent itself as a retirement mecca
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@CTIronman And Saddam showing off captured pilots on tv!
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@varadmehta @EdMorrissey Murk-Rand-Collins-Tillis - pick one as vote 50. Collins is in cycle, Rand is useless, Tillis might find another crisis oh the month to lose his s*it over. So whatever shamelessly giant thing Alaska needs at the moment to get Lisa Lisa and the Sled Dog Jam to vote yes.
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Varad Mehta
Varad Mehta@varadmehta·
@KeystoneObsrvr @EdMorrissey If the Senate can pass something, that would put pressure on the House. How many votes are there is the question. In both chambers. Probably only 51 tops in the Senate. Can lose three.
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Varad Mehta
Varad Mehta@varadmehta·
If the point of the shutdown was forcing changes to immigration enforcement, it was a failure. Democrats didn't get a single change to ICE, and deportations and other operations continued unabated during the shutdown. So argues @EdMorrissey. But reconciliation won't be easy.
Ed Morrissey@EdMorrissey

NEW: Dems Throw In Towel on Schumer Shutdown II: TSA Boogaloo The question now will be whether House Republicans will take yes for an answer, or whether they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2…

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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not agreed to negotiations, Axios reports.
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@senderowiczj @jpodhoretz The cinematography is excellent - it *looks* fantastic. I think the big issue was just “Why?”. The 60s film is such a classic that it just doesn’t seem necessary to update
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@CTIronman Pretty crazy that in the past couple years two big infamous cold case investigations whose main mystery hangup issue was “are all these different homicides actually connected?” (LISC in Long Island and Colonial Parkway in VA) both really were one guy in each instance
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@EsotericCD “Even if…Even if!”
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@Txp_RBI_Xctuxl @Izengabe_ I’d argue the Battle of the Bulge could use a great modern redo as a film done in the same way as Fury. Or a modern HBO version of Herman Wouk’s War and Remembrance
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T_p_tio 🎈
T_p_tio 🎈@Txp_RBI_Xctuxl·
I feel like we've reached the end of WW2 movies. All of the interesting stories have been told. Now we get movies about black women sorting mail in England and the meteorologist that did the weather forecast for D-Day.
Met Office@metoffice

The first trailer for ‘Pressure’ is here, the film which tells the story of the most important weather forecast; the D-Day forecast. Andrew Scott stars as Group Captain James Stagg – the Met Office meteorologist tasked with delivering the weather forecast and helping shape D-Day's plans. In cinemas 9 September. #pressuremovie @StudiocanalUK

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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@TempusMalleo @Txp_RBI_Xctuxl Kind of hard to top Ted Turner’s “Rough Riders” with Tom Berenger as TR and *Gary Busey* as Joseph Wheeler
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Justin
Justin@KeystoneObsrvr·
@MichaelWatsonDC @RyanGirdusky Probably a German style “grand coalition” of the center left and center right with their literal “moderate party” as the glue. Just of question of who gets the PM vs who gets finance/defense/ budget goodies etc
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Michael Watson
Michael Watson@MichaelWatsonDC·
@RyanGirdusky eh, the way Danish government formations apparently go this is a merely ceremonial act; if she can form a coalition she can remain PM. (She does not have an obvious coalition yet, but the liberal and conservative opposition don't either.)
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