Ric Torres
35.1K posts
@RicTorresII
Writer/Producer | Co-Founder @PochoVillaProds 🎥 with @LaloAlcaraz | Amplifying Chicano voices through storytelling | #Chicano #CalBears #FBR
IIRC it was 400k when there were 5M ballots were counted and it’s 350k after 6M. 50k for every million counted is not quite good enough (headed from 150-200k margin). I’ll just wait for the next half million or so to be counted and update this.
Hilton overperformed today in Central Valley counties and key Southland counties like Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino. Even with Steyer beating expectations in many large counties, Hilton’s projected margin rose from 0.6% to 1.3%, moving his win chance from 62% to 85%.
Where things stand Los Angeles County 🔵 Steyer +33k Bay Area 🔵 Steyer +99k Rest Southern California 🔴 Hilton +262k Rest Northern California 🔴 Hilton +110k Central/San Joaquin Valley 🔴 Hilton +102k NET 🔴 Hilton +343k
IIRC it was 400k when there were 5M ballots were counted and it’s 350k after 6M. 50k for every million counted is not quite good enough (headed from 150-200k margin). I’ll just wait for the next half million or so to be counted and update this.
🚨 6/5 update on CA GOV 🗳️ On 6/4 @TomSteyer trailed @SteveHiltonx by 402k ballots. There were about 500k ballots counted yesterday and Steyer now trails Hilton by 394k ballots. Closing the gap by 8k out of 500k is not going to work. Comparing the same top 21 counties to the candidate share on the morning of 6/3 to 6/5 the support levels are very closely matching election night, with Hilton slightly fading by only 1 point in some places, holding steady in others. Steyer continues to match about the same vote share as of 6/5 that he had on 6/3. So far there is no big Steyer boost anywhere and there is no big Hilton collapse. Yes, there are still WAY MORE Dem ballots to count, but Steyer is only winning about 35% of all Dem ballots while Hilton is winning 66% of all GOP ballots. Bianco faded at the end, Hilton rose. So even if there are 2:1 more Dem ballots, Steyer and Hilton basically break even because of well, math.....
🚨 6/5 update on CA GOV 🗳️ On 6/4 @TomSteyer trailed @SteveHiltonx by 402k ballots. There were about 500k ballots counted yesterday and Steyer now trails Hilton by 394k ballots. Closing the gap by 8k out of 500k is not going to work. Comparing the same top 21 counties to the candidate share on the morning of 6/3 to 6/5 the support levels are very closely matching election night, with Hilton slightly fading by only 1 point in some places, holding steady in others. Steyer continues to match about the same vote share as of 6/5 that he had on 6/3. So far there is no big Steyer boost anywhere and there is no big Hilton collapse. Yes, there are still WAY MORE Dem ballots to count, but Steyer is only winning about 35% of all Dem ballots while Hilton is winning 66% of all GOP ballots. Bianco faded at the end, Hilton rose. So even if there are 2:1 more Dem ballots, Steyer and Hilton basically break even because of well, math.....
