Macdog

@__paleologo VPN!

I just hope Codex works in Singapore because I have been in withdrawal in HK. Will find out shortly.

@dalibali2 Literally I upgraded my account to try Gemini for $20/mo and cannot downgrade without losing all my storage for gmail/drive etc

Gemini was a trick to sell more Gmail storage.

@rev_cap I am equally confused, but one thought is that the Strait is still mostly closed, their leverage grows the longer it is closed. They could be slow playing negotiations asking for maximal outcome. They get the same leverage without being bombed and can play victim if talks fail

@HighyieldHarry I vibe coded a site which aggregates fund performance data, lp-data.com . See all the fund returns by manager , vintage, etc from public pension disclosures.

Someone sent me a BDC transparency platform they vibe coded to try to better understand private credit software exposure. Here’s a thread on what’s on here

@buccocapital @TheStalwart If you have a team of 10 people who spend 80% of their time doing boring automatable stuff and 20% of time doing human facing stuff, then with AI maybe you need 2-3 people doing that human stuff and then they use AI tools to handle the rest. Not 100% job loss but still

@TheStalwart Obviously businesses will try to build verifiable loops with documented context. Customer support is another good example and why it’s the other job being automated Other jobs will be much more difficult

I thought Dwarkesh had a good point that software engineering is the only job where the full context needed to do the job is available to an AI agent (via the code base) And I didn’t think Dario had a good answer for why automating other jobs will be as easy

@__paleologo Claude Code is the best for coding. Gemini is good for multimodal, images etc but terrible at coding. Both ChatGPT and Gemini are good at technical discussions but you should judge which is better.

Advice needed. At home, I am currently paying for ChatGPT and Gemini. I really want/need to get Claude Code, and I feel returns on investment on a 3rd service are decreasing, even negative (too much context-switching). I already never use nanobanana etc. What should I drop? ChatGPT or Gemini? I have come to really like Gemini, and am inclined to keep it. Or are there compelling reasons to keep all of them?

@valuations_ Didn’t it peak Jan 2nd 2022?

@lord_fed Clients all expect a “hawkish” Fed. Rates have certainly backed up but hard to say that equities really are worried

Jay has got a tightrope to walk at the presser today.. If the market has “priced in a hawkish cut” today, why are we 2% from all-time highs? The strange thing is that the market/most commentary is expecting a “hawkish cut” and yet we are ~2% from ATH on index. So is the right tail the real risk since the market is supposedly pricing in a “hawkish cut”?

@dalibali2 True story, I was learning about AI in 2016 and decided against buying NVDA because I was worried about competition from the TPU.

Market has discovered TPU 10 years after launch

@systematicls Not quite a power user but I can say that Gemini 3 is far worse than Claude and codex. It doesn’t follow directions and randomly deletes important code, and it completely failed in dealing with Jupyter notebooks.

@dampedspring What exactly do you think the public cloud hyper scalers do? They sell compute and storage. That’s the whole business.

@JackFarley96 Can we please just start saying Mag6? Or put in AVGO for TSLA?

Rick Rieder today: - this is the best investing environment ever - Mag7 (ex-Tesla) earnings growing 54% - Yield levels on bonds are "pretty good"

@SirOfFinance I thought a letter was a deal?

European Union still at 29% seems crazy to me.

@SpencerHakimian Not until the tax bill is done, then he brings tariff tantrum back.

We’ve had like 5 TV appearances today from cabinet members on “countries ripping us off”. There’s a non zero chance we do Liberation Day all over again next week when the 90 day pause expires. Trump is humiliated that nobody came forth to negotiate with him and he might just go full moron yet again. Just be prepared.

@buccocapital When V/MA?

Every single indicator is firing for me to add Salesforce to the Nothing Ever Happens Portfolio When VCs start piling on that’s usually the bottom Genuinely afraid of getting brain damage/having heart issues holding Google, Uber and Salesforce though

@INArteCarloDoss Did you read the UBS report last year where they showed pretty conclusively that the front month NFP is systematically overestimated due to bad statistical methodology in the seasonal adjustment process, leading to predictable downward revisions in the subsequent releases?

KC just came out. Validates this analyses. Strap your seat belts homies.

@rev_cap lol try with private school tuition for two kids you are vastly understating

@jdcmedlock Think it is due by mid July, and would include the Apple tariffs and other electronics

What happened to this?

@wabuffo Inflation would no longer be a story IF not for the likely impact of tariffs over the next few months.

Inflation no longer a story...

@sidprabhu Will settle higher on China though and possibly the EU will also be like 20%

We really just rolling this back to 10% across the board and 25% on strategic industries?