
NYCWelfareStatePolitics
7.6K posts

NYCWelfareStatePolitics
@3stddev
Documenting the terminal decline of NYC.







Shit like this never happened in the Iraq or Afghan war.




Iran strikes Dimona, near Israel’s nuclear site, hours after a strike on Iran’s Natanz facility. And US President Donald Trump sends Iran an ultimatum. Al Jazeera's @MarahRayan has the latest developments in the war on Iran.

Exclusive- Israeli officials I speak with admit Iran’s core perception may be decisive: Tehran believes it is winning this war. When Iran agrees to a “gesture of goodwill” in Hormuz, it doesn’t see a concession- it sees recognition of its control. They say the leadership- operating under pressure and isolation - has only a partial picture of the damage inside Iran, reinforcing that confidence. Some now argue only a sharper escalation, including energy targets, can reset that calculus. This view has been presented to both American and Israeli decision-makers. Read my latest here, (and sign up to my substack): nadaveyal.com/p/irans-danger…



My comments in this @Reuters exclusive: Even after weeks of strikes, Iran continues launching from sites that have been heavily targeted. That suggests U.S. assessments may be overstating degradation.


⭕️I wonder how Iranian monarchists feel about President Trump returning the three islands (Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb) to the UAE. ⭕️The three small islands sit right at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The last Shah ordered the Navy to occupy them in 1971. ⭕️The UAE has claimed them ever since, especially since Arab tribes inhabited the Greater Tunb and the others. ⭕️By returning them to the UAE, the US can establish a military base there and control the Hormuz Strait for decades to come.


Yikes. The US has burned through ~850 Tomahawks in 4 weeks. That's roughly a quarter of the inventory. At ~600 produced/year, that's ~1.5 years of production gone in a month. Hard to see what long-term political goal this buys. washingtonpost.com/national-secur…



I am now more convinced than ever that the huge US military budget has been a kind of gravy train investing in overbloated tech that doesn't really work and acting as a sort of make-work scheme. I no longer see it as an unbeatable military.






Qatar, Oman and Kuwait are pushing behind closed doors for a swift end to the war. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain say they are ready to absorb an escalation of the war and will not accept a post-war Iran that is still able to use the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip.


Here's the fun part: Tomahawks need samarium-cobalt magnets for their fins. China controls 85-90% of the supply because samarium is mined almost exclusively in China. Thank you for your attention to this matter.









