@BDHerzinger It doesn't take a lot of effort for them to find the optimised fleet response plan and see how long a normal maintenance phase is. That's even before factoring in the damage from a massive 30hr fire.
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Éilís 🔆
1.5K posts
Éilís 🔆
@AdaptiveOrgan
Maritime history and strategy | Former Marine | Cybernetics | Systems Theory | Phenomenology | Madhyamaka
เข้าร่วม Haziran 2021
184 กำลังติดตาม102 ผู้ติดตาม
Amazing to me that anybody in any industry thinks they should opine on naval operating models without any experience or background whatsoever. 🤷🏼♂️
mattparlmer 🪐 🌷@mattparlmer
Amazing to me that anybody in the defense industry feels like they have the right to talk shit rn when we can all see our military’s acquisition strategy get blown up or bypassed entirely on the tl
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@RobertJMolnar Maintenance in the 36 month optimised response plan is usually 6-7.5 months with an additional 6-10 months of pre-deployment training and certifications. Sincerely, it makes complete sense that the additional repairs on top of the routine maintenance phase would take this long.
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ok, enough is enough.....it does not take 12-14 months of repairs for a fucking fire on a goddam nuclear carrier, or a refit of said carrier.....wtf are you all talkin about
Are we that fucking goddam lame that it takes a year+ to fix some fire damage, and refit a goddam super carrier?
Come on man
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@policytensor How does signing any ceasefire or peace agreement now prevent more GBU-57s from being dropped on them in the future? The US will come back again within a few years and Iran might not have the leverage then that they do now.
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I agree. The Iranians are at risk of overreach.
They are closing to achieving all their objectives. They have survived a joint all-out aerial attack by the US and Israel. They have pushed out US forces and made US bases in the region unusable. They have demonstrated the power of the Hormuz weapon — and held the world economy at gunpoint. They have demonstrated their capability to hold all gulf and Israeli assets and cities at risk.
Has deterrence been restored? I think we’re getting close. Despite the low journalistic standards in the West, all serious people now understand that this has been a strategic defeat for the West.
Escalating from here or dragging this out may be unwise. It would only force the US to commit ground forces, which will be a quagmire for the Americans, but would be considerably more devastating for Iran.
The Iranians should try to secure what they can at the table. Security guarantees may not be forthcoming and are not something that can be extracted by Iranian threats. What they can insist on is money and arms. Sanctions relief from the US. Weapons supply from the other great powers.
This will have to enough until Iran can achieve breakout, which they must now do at forced-pace and in total secrecy (see @NicoleGrajewski FA article on this point).
The enrichment file may be the sticking point. It is really hard to see how Iran can now allow any kind of serious inspection regime. They must rush to get the bomb. And this is an important reason beyond the Hormuz weapon that the war will continue.
The culminating point is hard to identify. But a good case can be made that this is it. If Trump is willing to eat this defeat then they should let him. Even if they agree to inspections, they can run rings around the inspectors or kick them out later.
Najam Ali@NajamAli2020
Many disagree with my view that Iran should now show restraint. They want escalation. They want a decisive finish. History warns against this instinct. In 1982, Iran had pushed Iraq back and held a clear advantage. That was the moment to consolidate. Instead, it chose total victory. The result? The world aligned against it. Years of attrition. Hundreds of thousands dead. And in the end, a forced compromise. That is the cost of overreach. Today, Iran again holds leverage: this time through the Strait of Hormuz. It has the ability to impose real economic pain. But leverage is not an invitation to exhaust it. It is a tool to negotiate from strength. Right now, the world is not aligned with the U.S. But if Iran pushes too far, if global economic pain becomes intolerable, that alignment can change very quickly. And when it does, the balance shifts. The lesson is simple: Victory is not in total domination. It is in knowing when to stop. This is the moment for strategic restraint and smart negotiation from a position of strength.
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@omarali50 @MartinSkold2 That's because the Royal Navy was dependent upon the United States to help protect its interests and maintain FON in the Pacific. The US doesn't have anyone like that, but CS21 provided an alternative by focusing on soft power to prevent or mitigate disasters.
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@MartinSkold2 The royal navy managed to hold on for a couple of decades after that remark.
The US navy seems to be at a worse level than the royal navy was in 1916..
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Something wrong with our bloody ships.
(Do I need to elaborate why this is a big deal?)
Sprinter Press@SprinterPress
The USS Gerald R. Ford, a US Navy aircraft carrier, is likely to be out of service for 14 months The US Navy is facing a potential "aircraft carrier crisis", as their most modern warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), after a known incident, is apparently unable to deploy for combat until at least the beginning of next year. The transition from active combat operations in the Red Sea to a shipyard in Crete marks a critical pause in Operation Epic Fury against Iran, highlighting the physical and industrial limitations of 21st-century naval power, emphasize specialized media outlets: Defense analyst Jack Backby warns that the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) will face a potential 12-14-month maintenance period after it was put out of service due to a fire in the laundry on March 12.
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@BrandonTXNeely No, there is no fraud. The moment you give an inch and admit that there may be some fraud, you've already given them the justification they need to dig their hands into this and strip everyone of benefits. The people you're arguing against don't care about nuance.
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My unit was doing pre-deployment work-ups in California and 7 of us died from a mortar accident. Think everyone came through that unscathed? You can't say "there are special circumstances" without qualifying them, otherwise you've already given yourself an out to avoid criticism.
Adam O’Lykos@AdamOLykos
I said what i said. There are special circumstances….but if you didn’t deploy you should not be a 100% for mental health. You know it’s true, I know it’s true, we all know it’s true.
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There's actually a very valuable lesson here with regards to epistemology and the assumptions that we bring with us to war, but most people would prefer to rant and rage at how unfair their adversary is when they lose.
Quattro (Weiss's Husband)@QuattroMKII
VAN RIPER WAS A CHEATING HACK. HE EXPLOITED UNCLEAR RULES AND GAVE HIMSELF MOTORCYCLE COURIERS THAT TRAVELED AT THE SPEED OF LIGHT AND SPEEDBOATS THAT CARRIED BALLISTIC MISSILES LARGER THAN PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE. THEY WERE RIGHT TO RESET THE SIM AND HE THREW A FIT OVER IT.
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I'm from an Irish family/clan in Greater Appalachia and we still utilise a form of ambilineal tanistry around a dearbhfhine. Even the German families in the county do the same, and county officials are elected from these families, rarely from popularity alone. It wasn't until I moved away for some years that I realised how tribal the whole situation actually is. I don't think it's "backwards," but it is very communitarian in a way that most people, including advocates of communitarianism, would find quite strange.
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I speculated months ago that Herbert, Heinlein, Card, and a few others are all influenced by New France/Inland Waterway cultural traditions.
Left-right horseshoe politics and fear of overbearing social control are another “tell”: They are downstream of a culture that lacks durable norms (where what norms exist are constantly being renegotiated as power checks power).
This would have described the culture of wilderness trading posts in New France’s heyday and arguably never really left them.
It’s quite foreign to the Anglo-American folkways except, perhaps, for the Borderers/Greater Appalachia (who nevertheless organize themselves quite differently, preferring leadership along what amounts to tribal lines).
Alexander Thatcher@ThatchEffendi
Herbert's politics are very horseshoe. His hostility to any kind of attempt at social engineering is both paleocon and vaguely Foucauldian. He's got a romantic streak that's inextricably tied to eroticism. Very impressive guy but also obviously very weird.
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Éilís 🔆 รีทวีตแล้ว
The people who swallowed the “warriors” shtick have no idea how varied the day to day lives of an infantryman, submariner, air boss, linguist, supply specialist, refueler, etc really are.
Do you think these folks are never at a desk or in a classroom or in a training simulator? Do people really think it’s just constant lead slinging games with folks in the bleachers waiting to process pay or purchase requests like moms on stand by with orange slices?
theloadedquestion@SimplySatiracal
@ebrockwayink Then it should be reformed. People who work behind a desk and never even leave the US should be entirely excluded, for one thing. A lot of others as well. We need to serve our warriors and their support staff, not these leaches who only harm said warriors and support staff.
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Again, Sam Tangredi at the US Naval War College has talked about this for over a decade now. Iran, Russia, and China have a similar approach to A2/AD that involves coercing neighbours to prevent US military presence along their borders. They will all go there if necessary.
Nik Stankovic@nikstankovic_
One taboo that Iran broke is targeting every nation that harbors bases which enemy uses to attack. Russia would not go there, and I wonder if China would have BEFORE this war. But now that the genie is out of the bottle, Japan and Philippines can expect to get hit if US comes into conflict with China, because US will use those Japan's and Philippines bases.
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The problem here begins with sending the Marine Corps to occupy land. That's not their purpose and it's a misuse of military force.
Gregory Brew@gbrew24
The Marine force being sent to potentially occupy parts of Iran, a country of 90 million people, is approximately the same size as the force used to invade the island of Grenada in 1983.
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I've seen a lot of people with OSINT in their bios who thought it was stupid for Iran to attack their Gulf neighbours. Sam Tangredi, former naval officer and current A2/AD scholar at the Naval War College, has discussed this very approach for over a decade now, and those of us who take this stuff seriously weren't surprised by it. Take from that what you will.
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I asked a retired U.S. Marine familiar with amphibious operations about a MEU on Kharg Island. Granted, this person doesn't have "OSINT" in his Twitter bio, so what the hell would he know? But this is what he told me, contra Trump's claim this is a "simple military maneuver":
"Amphibious landings are by nature high risk and a lot can go wrong even in the best conditions. The Marine Corps has lost equipment during exercises, for example when an Abrams tank was sunk during an exercise on the coast of Spain in the 2010s.
"An amphibious landing on Kharg is within the capability of the United States to accomplish, but at what cost and to what end? Once the Marines fight their way ashore and take their objective, they will be on an island with limited cover, very close to hostile Iran. How long could the Marines hold this island, under bombardment, before they would need to be withdrawn?
"As for the danger, I think of amphibious assault as being akin to airborne assault. A lot of this depends on the tactical advantage of speed and surprise.
"What the Marines are working against here is that everyone knows they're coming. And there are only so many places that are suitable for a landing. Need a suitable approach, favorable tides, etc. the Iranians understand this and will plan for it.
"It is reasonable to expect that they will try to attack the transports en route, that they will attack while the ships unload, that they will attack the landing craft while they move from the ships to the beach, and that the troops will be attacked as they assault from the beach to their objectives.
"Once the Marines are at their objective, they'll be attacked there too because Iran, and any other interested party to the conflict, will know exactly where the Marines are.
"We're also 13 years removed from major combat operations in GWOT. There are still combat veterans at middle and upper echelons, but the majority of troops are not combat veterans. They're new guys."
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@MartinSkold2 I really do not like this many ships and Marines in the region with only one CSG. The Houthis still haven't been activated yet and they possess Palestine-2 AShMs.
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This better be a negotiating ploy.
Faytuks News@Faytuks
Breaking: Pentagon officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran, multiple sources tell CBS News. The military has also held meetings to prepare for how to handle the possible detention of Iranian soldiers cbsnews.com/news/trump-adm…
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For the obsessive among us: Things like this are an indicator both of how Iran stays in the fight and how hard it is to change that.
If you can plug tunnels, you have a fair chance of keeping them from getting equipment - drones, speedboats, launchers, etc - from place to place and out into the open as needed.
The catch is, this makes targeting U-boat pens in both world wars look easy. (IYKYK). Broadly speaking there, you had two options: Try to bust through tens of metres of concrete (as at Lorient in WWII), or land marines (as the British attempted in the St. George’s Day raid on Zeebrugge in 1918). This is similar.
Hard to do from the air. On the ground, well - think Gaza. Or the Pacific War. Or hunting Charlie in tunnels in Vietnam. Pick your analogy - they all suck.
Azim@A_z_im
آپدیت: آمریکایی ها بلاخره به تونل دریایی قشمحمله کردند اما موفق به نفوذ به داخل تونل نشدند منبع @MT_Anderson
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@micyoung75 It's propaganda. They want to promote their brand of Christian communitarianism to get kids to subscribe to the idea of "the good life," in place of constitutional law. Augustine is the tell here.
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Indiana's statehouse just signed two bills that cannot survive being read in the same sentence.
The first: public universities must now accept the Classic Learning Test for admissions. The CLT draws its questions from classical texts. Plato. Augustine. Cicero. Shakespeare. The argument is that these works represent the intellectual foundation of Western civilization and self-government.
The second: public colleges must eliminate programs deemed to produce "low earning" graduates. No carve-out for humanities. No protection for the programs where students actually read and wrestle with those classical authors the first bill just elevated.
Fort Wayne's Redeemer Classical School sent a representative to the statehouse to champion the CLT. Their students read Homer and Euclid. Their graduates will now test into universities that are legally required to accept their scores and simultaneously required to shut down the departments built around the tradition those scores are supposed to measure.
You cannot champion the classics as a signal of intellectual seriousness and then eliminate the classrooms that make the ideas real. That is not education reform. That is a credential without a curriculum.
IndyStar@indystar
Opinion: Lawmakers voted to put Plato and Augustine on a college entrance exam — then voted to eliminate programs where students study Plato and Augustine. indystar.com/story/opinion/…
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It's not hope or naivety, it's prioritising strategic goals over an operation that's undermining the US' credibility and national security by risking a global energy and economic crisis. Yes, all $200b likely will go towards this fiasco, but what exactly does it accomplish beyond prolonging the conflict and making the economic and energy situation worse than it already is?
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James is completely right that this is what it should be spent on, I’m not criticizing his post, just the notion in general.
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It’s going to sustainment and replacing munitions used in Epic Fury and anyone suggesting otherwise is either naive or just hoping on a wish and a prayer.
Trump’s pentagon has neglected a number of these priorities, no one should expect that to change until they release details on the supplemental.
James Raab 🇺🇸🇺🇦@JamesRaxz
Some things I would spend $200B on. -Opening a second B-21 production line. $4.5B -Plan a second F-47 line $4.5B -Restart C-17 production. $8B -Buy 48 US-2s from Japan. $7.5B -Max the lines of F-35, F-15EX and F-16V, all to the USAF. $28B -Grow the Army to 680,000. $42B
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Éilís 🔆 รีทวีตแล้ว
"In January, Danish soldiers were sent to #Greenland, carrying explosives to destroy the runways in the capital Nuuk and in Kangerlussuaq in the event of an American attack.
The cargo also contained blood bags from Danish blood banks to treat wounded soldiers"
swedenherald.com/article/source…
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Okay, and this protects the global commons and ensures freedom of navigation how, exactly? The whole petrodollar rests upon this, and the situation right now is pretty dire, so any additional funding has to justify itself by demonstrating how it contributes towards achieving these strategic goals. Iran is still launching missiles and drones, so air superiority isn't doing much right now. The Army can't get anywhere without ships. An iron dome and ISR hardware in the US accomplishes absolutely nothing here. I'm just not sure what exactly justifies most of the items on this list when our entire global role is in question because we lack the ships to open the Straight of Hormuz.
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Some things I would spend $200B on.
-Opening a second B-21 production line. $4.5B
-Plan a second F-47 line $4.5B
-Restart C-17 production. $8B
-Buy 48 US-2s from Japan. $7.5B
-Max the lines of F-35, F-15EX and F-16V, all to the USAF. $28B
-Grow the Army to 680,000. $42B
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Éilís 🔆 รีทวีตแล้ว
Most vets who commit suicide never saw combat.
When you talk to vets who experienced profound depression, the main theme is the challenge of reintegrating into civilian life.
When you exit, everything is gone. What you do, how to do it, why you do it, who it impacts, when to do it, what to wear, what to use, when to recreate, your friends, your support network.
Someone with 10 years of service entrusted with fixing $90M aircraft finds themselves flipping burgers reporting to Chad, who doesn't trust them with a fryer.
Imagine being molded into someone and 100% of that is gone overnight.
21 a day is 21 too many. I won't say the VA has done nothing. The mental health app, which is (was) free for anyone to use, helped me process my PTSD as a conflict journalist.
But it isn't enough, and there isn't enough focus on reintegration into society. And young vets will tell you, the Boomers drinking beer in the VFWs are no help. They belittle their experiences, insult them, and refuse to change.
If you've read this far, if there's a battle buddy you haven't talked to in a long time, call them.
Brian E. Kinsella@brianekinsella
20 years. Billions wasted. Endless campaigns, panels, and hashtags. Veteran suicide rates? Still flat. “Raising awareness” isn’t compassion. It’s a comfortable multi-billion-dollar lie that replaced actual results. We built a system that only shows up after the trigger is pulled. I saw it in Haiti, 2010. That day I swore: No one who wore this nation’s uniform dies because help failed to reach them.
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