Bitcoin Fire

We have arrived. Semi-coherent thoughts on how I'm thinking about this next stage:

Sure it has risks and I agree if you’re a bitcoiner with an already large stack of btc, probably doesn’t make sense to use STRC as a retirement vehicle if you want to be as anti fragile as possible and not be forced back into the workforce. But, if this sort of accumulation continues where one preferred product is 6x’ing the daily issuance of btc on a random Friday during a bear market, you have to admit that it is probably just going to work out because that’s btc that is never going to be available again in the market. Saylor is essentially engineering a supply shortage for the next bitcoin bull run and if we see anything similar to the performance of btc in this past bull run, they can give themselves enough runway to execute the strategy for a very long time. Bitcoin is better, but Mstr and STRC are interesting.

MSTR/STRC promoters suffer from groupthink. I shared this post with Claude and without seeing the replies it accurately predicted every pushback I received.

Doesn’t look like it but this is one of the most interesting charts in all of finance

@mitchdmoore I am not using it now but I appreciate it being built out as a concept. The idea being stockpile all savings into btc now and then look to smooth out volatility in the drawdown phase years from now.

STRC is not a high yield bank account replacement regardless of how much Saylor tries to market it as such. It's 9mo into trading and just now consistently around par. In my opinion, the verdict is still out and I wouldn't rely on it heavily for retirement income.

@ts_hodl Probably understated how much mental angst goes away by simply DCA’ing. Literally doesn’t matter what the price does, you will be accumulating at every level. Seems like it’s especially useful for an asset like bitcoin.

The hardest bitcoin buy is the first one. Not because the mechanics are hard, but because crossing from zero to something forces you to confront all the noise at once. Am I too late? What if it crashes right after I buy? What if I’m making a mistake with real money? I’ve had this conversation with a lot of friends over the years, and the answer usually isn’t to make some heroic all-in move. It’s to get off zero, then build from there. Buy a small amount. Pay attention. Learn what you own. Then set up an automatic DCA the same way any serious FIRE plan works. Consistent buying beats emotional decision-making. If you have a larger chunk to put to work, I like a blended approach: put part of it in immediately, then spread the rest over a defined period. That lowers the emotional pressure without leaving you frozen on the sidelines. You don’t need perfect timing. You need a system you can stick with when bitcoin is ripping, crashing, or doing nothing at all.

@BitcoinTeacher_ I first bought in 2017 at like $1200 which I promptly swapped for a basket of dogshit later that year. Ha we all have lessons to learn from

My first Bitcoin buy was at $21,046 Anyone got me beat? Any ogs sub 10k in here?👊🏻👇

@AminZecom Agent

@jordan_ross_8F Calls

Interesting post, but I think it underestimates what’s possible now. It reads like turning 40 means your path is mostly locked in and you’re left dealing with the consequences. I’m not sure that holds up in an era where AI and other exponential tools can dramatically accelerate learning, productivity, and reinvention. Yes, some decisions carry inertia. You can’t redo everything. But from a career perspective, it’s probably easier now than at any point in history to change your trajectory quickly if you embrace the right tools and mindset.

⚡️Forty is the age where a person finds out who they actually became. By then, the body tells the truth. Money tells the truth. Marriage tells the truth. Kids tell the truth. Career tells the truth. Energy tells the truth. The fantasy version is dead. Most people are not destroyed by bad luck. They are destroyed by fear, avoidance, and years of lying to themselves. Forty is when the bill shows up. That is why it feels terrifying. Time is no longer theoretical. Parents start dying. Children need real provision. Weak habits become permanent damage. Mediocrity stops looking temporary and starts looking final. Fear steals lives. People waste their strongest years hiding, delaying, coping, numbing, rationalizing, and pretending they still have endless time. Then forty arrives and reality becomes visible. The clean truth is this. Forty is terrifying because by then there is evidence.

@ActuallyClimber You really don’t think bitcoin won’t be back to an ATH in 3 years from now? $67k -> $126k = 23% cagr by 2029. I think that’s pretty conservative based on btcs track record

Them: $STRC 11.5% yield! Actual companies and indexes are a thing of the past! Me: Where’s the yield come from hmm? Them: The sophisticated arbitrage of Bitcoin CAGR vs pref yield, obviously. Me: But Bitcoin didn’t even double the last cycle high and is where it was 5 years ago or worse when adjusting for inflation. Perhaps the CAGR will never return to 30-50% as it’s clearly dropping faster than most expected. Them:

@_Checkmatey_ It’s inevitable that it will need to be addressed so no problem aggressively pursuing solutions now. Plus, it helps price to get a solution in place

A few thoughts on quantum: The debate around "if" vs "when" a CRQC comes to market is a fruitless one. You won't convince either side to switch, because there is little observable progress, and the risk is there may not be until its too late. The risk a CRQC comes to market is existential if Bitcoin doesn't have a credible plan of action. Risk is probability x consequence, and even if the probability is low, the consequence is 100%. Thus any sane actor should see developing a plan as worth the effort. Arguments that Bitcoin devs are doing nothing appear to be false. Arguments that 'we're all good, do nothing' are also mistaken. Reality is in between, it's a solveable issue, folks are working on it, AND we do NOT have a credible plan yet. Rushing PQ-cryptography is a massive risk, and is the wrong approach. Not developing a credible set of BIPs, is also a mistake. Coinbase and Nic absolutely have an incentive...to protect their bags and business models, which are massively long Bitcoin. They may also have incentives which are misaligned with Bitcoin, and yet that still doesn't disqualify their opinions. Coinbase has millions of BTC folks, they are the 'longest' entity in the world. Question them yes, but assuming pure malice without considering that they are capitalists looking after their interests, is frankly retarded. I'm a Bitcoiner who is massively long the asset (holdings and business), and I try my best to adopt a reasonable middle ground opinion of things. The two extremes of 'emergency' and 'no problem' are both wrong, because they do not understand the simple equation of risk = probability x consequence. I fully support the development of PQ BIPs for Bitcoin. I very much look forward to learning about the proposals, discussing the trade-offs, and doing what little I can to form consensus, and parse the complexities. Having a plan, and not needing it, is far better than needing a plan, and not having one. The truth is in the middle, and there is little benefit to debating in the quagmire of 'will-it, won't it' ever show up. A CRQC may never show up. In that case, the plan stays in the BIP repo as copy and unmerged, but fully reviewed code. What is a totally fucked result, is if we assume a CRQC won't show up, and then it does. Don't fuck this up, the middle ground is the correct path to walk. Probability x Consequence. Small number x 100% loss == take it seriously.

@jamesclift Durable

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Michael saylor rn:

@AlexFinn This might not be imminent but it honestly doesn’t seem too far off in the grand scheme of things. It seems we’re at the point where the AI is building the AI. While prices will go down in the future, whoever gets to use AGI first is the likely winner

In a few weeks the most powerful AI model of all time Claude Mythos will release This makes me deeply nervous Not because of cybersecurity risks or anything like that But because it will quite obviously be significantly more expensive which will cause the wealth gap to explode Let me explain First the obvious: tokens aren’t getting cheaper. In fact, they’re getting significantly more expensive Almost every new version of ChatGPT and Claude brings a slight bump in price over the last one And plans haven’t been going down either, they’re only coming out with more expensive ones. ChatGPT Pro plan for $250 a month. Claude Max for $200. GPUs, RAM, CPUs all going up in price. And now Mythos, which the leaked blog post hinted won’t even be included in a plan. It will only be in the API for what will be an astronomical cost. And do you seriously doubt this won’t lead to an upcoming $2,000 a month Ultra plan that every other AI company will immediately copy? It’s one thing to make luxury items more expensive. It’s another thing to make intelligence more expensive. Intelligence that is critical to getting ahead in a crumbling economy. Let’s just call it what it is: using AI gives you an advantage against everyone else. Those with AI are keeping their jobs. Those not using AI are losing their jobs Now a new level of intelligence that will only be accessible to the rich is coming out. Only the rich will be able to use this super intelligence to create more economic value than others. What happens to the people that can’t afford Mythos? Or ChatGPT 6? They are left with a major disadvantage in the economic battlefield. Then on top of that, both OpenAI and Anthropic are going to IPO this year (it’s killing the middle class that this didn’t happen years ago, but that’s another story) They both are heavily incentivized right now to explode revenue as much as they can. They both are incentivized to make these new models as expensive as humanly possible. The middle class is already gutted. A middle class without access to the intelligence that the upper class will have will only gut them further. If a job position is between someone in the middle class with Claude Sonnet, and someone in the upper class with Claude Mythos, the Claude Mythos candidate with 100% get the job. It’s like a ballet dancer getting in a weight lifting competition with someone on insane amounts of steroids. Or say someone with Claude Opus has a genius idea for a business, and someone with Claude Mythos gets the same one. The one with Claude Mythos will release a significantly better product much much faster, crushing the person with Opus. I’m very pro-capitalist. In fact, I might be a radical capitalist. But at the same time this country (and this world) needs a middle class. I don’t know the answers or solution. There probably isn’t one. I honestly don’t even know what I’m trying to achieve with this post. I just have gotten incredibly scared over the last few days thinking about this scenario. I think the best plan of action at the moment is to just create as much economic value as you possibly can right now. (Ethically) earn as much money as possible. Save everything. If you want to compete in the future, you’re going to need to be able to afford the top tier intelligence. It’s critical for you and your family to survive. But in the meantime, don’t let anyone tell you intelligence is going to become “too cheap to meter”.

@mikefutia Seo

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Do you think the price of bitcoin would be higher right now if Kamala had been elected?

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@mitchdmoore Makes sense I guess if you’re retired. But I feel like having a lower cost basis makes it easier to stomach the lackluster returns in recent years

@Bitcoin_Fire_21 He’s class of 2017 though, not 2021. He’s in retirement and desires more peace.

Talked with another gentleman yesterday who is ready to quit bitcoin. Class of 2017. Solid stack. Over 50% of his liquid net worth. Anyone else feeling this way?