Stephen Coukos

@ShardiB2 @Grooovy718 Love the loyalty Shardi. You are the best!

@Grooovy718 they do

For the 100th time.....check the website getsigna.com for release date on the tool Subs are first in a beta and subscribers pay almost half!

@alpha_pls Also not sure why you are taking Trump's threats at face value vs bluster to get a last minute deal. Another 2-3 weeks of bombing would send gas prices spiraling and that is the last thing he wants with midterms coming up. He is just trying to find an exit strategy ATP

@alpha_pls I also think you have to consider Trump/his family is insider trading on all of this. He gives blustery speech last night to knock Straight odds way down so he can then get asymmetrical upside for when he does a 180 Monday morning. Haven't we seen this movie before?

No one likes being bearish, but there are times when "defensive pessimism" (as I call it) is the only rational stance. All the outcomes before Trump's speech pointed to bearish outcomes of varying degrees. The reality of where we are: • The conflict will last AT LEAST another 2-3 weeks (hopeful scenario), which means that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, which would be 46-53 days closed. • Approximately 20–21 million barrels per day (bpd) flow through the Strait. If closed for 50 days, the cumulative deficit would be over 1 billion barrels. • The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is officially the largest oil supply disruption in human history. It dwarfs the 1973 Oil Embargo (which saw a peak cut of ~4.3 million bpd) and the 1979 Iranian Revolution (~5.6 million bpd). • Inflation will rise over the coming months. Expect headline CPI to surge by 2-3% over the coming months as energy costs filter through the supply chain. • Central banks are trapped. They will be paused (maybe hike), and very concerned to not stoke the flames of inflation this year. 1970s-style inflationary spiral is embedded in the psyche of many at the Central Banks. • As energy costs act as a "tax" on consumers and collateral volatility rises, liquidity will tighten aggressively. The market has remained very optimistic/complacent and hasn't priced in the above. I think the nothing ever happens crowd are wrong here. In the same way that crypto participants were very complacent for months following its cyclical top, stock market participants are doing the same. Once the market prices in the reality that is unfolding and some of the worser case scenarios (the Strait being closed for even longer than another 2-3 weeks) then I think you will find many opportunities out there.

@alpha_pls With all of trumps flips flops on the war feels like one of your scenarios should be US is out in the next few days, and straight is opened by next week. ALL bearish outcomes doesn’t make much sense here. Iran has repeatedly suggested once bombing stops they will reopen Straight

@schenkty @Rdegentrader @ericschmidt Last I heard from you Ty you were leading investors on talking about flying to NY to sign some documents. So whatever happened with that?

@Rdegentrader @ericschmidt I’ve learned that unfortunately, some people are genuinely unhappy in their life. no matter how much you do to help and be a good person, you can’t please them 🥲

$KTA could genuinely invite @ericschmidt and a Visa CEO to a space and people would still fud

@aleabitoreddit It’s jealousy bro. Don’t worry about it you are killing it.

Why do I have my own hate watch community now? Stock like $AXTI climbs 400% in the past 4 months. -> Corrects by 14%. Salty commenter months later: "Get cooked"

@degengambleh Feels more like a golden shower at this point

One has to experience an entire bear market, To truly understand how brutally beautiful this space is. It sheds all the projects that were "too big to fail" It sheds 90%+ participants who never believed in the Crypto ethos By doing so, it creates room for innovation. At the end of it, only the redacts like us remain, Who are given a golden ticket to retirement*

@Credib1eGuy Something something KOL’s who think they are macro experts

People are still in disbelief that the war will not be TACO’d And even more so in disbelief that oil will stay above $100 for the months to come A lot of things not priced in

@qthomp A ceasefire where we stop using our primary leverage (bombing) but they maintain theirs by keeping the straight closed would be very one-sided. Highly doubt US will agree to that, nor should they.

Seems highly irrational for Iran to open the Strait during a ceasefire and forego all negotiating leverage. In that case, Trump would just aim for an indefinite ceasefire. And for that to even get off the ground Iran would need to know the US is negotiating in good faith, which was proven to be a false belief weeks ago. The moral of the story is Iran has the leverage here as Trump is crying uncle, not taco, but he will continue to do everything possible to make it seem that is not the case.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the insight on SOI's decline being related to the selloff in paris markets. Would have held anyway but still good to know.

Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again: When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week: Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed. Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down. And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names. Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers. I’ll post if my thesis materially changed. But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI. Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday… Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis. And it shouldn’t to your conviction either. Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp. Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro. But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.

@ShardiB2 I doubt it. The threat to bomb their grid would lead to Iran bombing oil infrastructure and things spiraling out of control which means 150 plus oil, a recession and a bear market. Would pretty much ruin Trump's 2nd term. When he bluffs like this it means he wants a deal

So, is the pause a tactic to give us time to get our Marines in place?

@aleabitoreddit How did you get to 10x, are you using options?

I may have outperformed the index just a tiny bit? It’s as simple as riding the Photonics and Memory Supercycles from $AXTI to $SNDK. Just doing this for fun now.

@TETSU9K @aleabitoreddit Doesn't have to be all or nothing, split your buy up. Buy 1/3 now, 1/3 for a 5% pullback, 1/3 for a 10% pullback (or 10% and 15% pullbacks, multiple ways to do it).

@aleabitoreddit I’ll definitely never have the right state of mind when it comes to this. Do I wait for a pullback on $TSEM now that I’m liquid again? Will there be a pullback? 😵‍💫

$TSEM and the Photonics Supercycle… Doesn’t like they’re bothered with Iran or Silver and Gold crashing? Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green. This is what happens when capacity is sold out for the next few years or it’s in the center of scaling the AI buildout. Better to stay long rather than get distracted by macro.

@CryptoGirlNova If the ME war ends in next week or so (big IF ), and stocks go risk-on next few months, hard to see BTC going to new lows with how good it's PA has been last few weeks. If it does then there is something very wrong IMO.

Current wave can still extend up until ~ $80k. Yet the important nuance stays "UP UNTIL". Current relief wave structure isn't broken yet. But losing that gray area here will quickly show the height of the rally is likely over for now. Remember: The higher this relief rally goes, the more likely the bottom is effectively in (low odds in my opinion but not impossible). Meaning if Bitcoin still resumes and breaks above ~ $80k I will realistically open the scenario that the next pullback in Bitcoin will be a higher low (change of trend). If I had to make a guess that would be around ~$70k. Still don't think it's likely given where we currently are but no bias should be arrogant enough to say it couldn't when the evidence would present itself.

@ShardiB2 So Munster just said 1 trillion was for 2 years not 1 (26 and 27)

coming down.... crazy...

BOOM WOWOW holy sht..... sector on fire Jensen says 1TRILLION worth of business coming instead of 500B, literally DOUBLE $NVDA