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FJ4Lo🇺🇸
10.5K posts

FJ4Lo🇺🇸
@FJ4Lo
University of Texas at Dallas Alumni LandCruisers and Vinyl Records
AL-la-BAMA เข้าร่วม Eylül 2013
2.2K กำลังติดตาม804 ผู้ติดตาม

Apparently Putin was justified in invading Ukraine bc of something “NATO might some day do” even though NATO never threatened to do it…
But the U.S. was not justified in invading Iran bc of something “they might some day do” even though they had specifically threatened to do it.
You don’t have to like war or support this current war to see the hypocrisy above.
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@TheRealeMeale @DrJStrategy Venezuela’s total oil exports (crude + fuel) reached ~1.09 million bpd in March 2026 (up from ~737,000 bpd in February),
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@FJ4Lo @DrJStrategy It will be 10-15 years before VE can export significant barrels of oil.
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Food for thought.
Trump, Hormuz and the End of the Free Ride
For half a century, Western strategists have known that the Strait of Hormuz is the acute point where energy, sea power and political will intersect. That knowledge is not in dispute. What is new in this war with Iran is that the United States, under Donald Trump, has chosen not to rush to “solve” the problem. In Hegelian terms, he is refusing an easy synthesis in order to force the underlying contradiction to the surface.
The old thesis was simple: the US guarantees open sea lanes in the Gulf, and everyone else structures their economies and politics around that free insurance. Europe and the UK embraced ambitious green policies, ran down hard‑power capabilities and lectured Washington on multilateral virtue, secure in the assumption that American carriers would always appear off Hormuz. The political class behaved as if the American security guarantee were a law of nature, not a contingent choice. Their conduct today is closer to Chamberlain than Churchill: temporising, issuing statements, hoping the storm will pass without a fundamental reordering of their responsibilities.
Trump’s antithesis is to withhold the automatic guarantee at the moment of maximum stress. Militarily, the US can break Iran’s residual ability to contest the Strait; that is not the binding constraint. The point is to delay that act. By allowing a closure or semi‑closure to bite, Trump ensures that the immediate pain is concentrated in exactly the jurisdictions that have most conspicuously free‑ridden on US power: the EU and the UK. Their industries, consumers and energy‑transition assumptions are exposed.
In that context, his reported blunt message to European and British leaders, you need the oil out of the Strait more than we do; why don’t you go and take it? Is not a throwaway line. It is the verbalisation of the antithesis. It openly reverses the traditional presumption that America will carry the burden while its allies emote from the sidelines.
In this dialectic, the prize is not simply the reopening of a chokepoint. The prize is a reordered system in which the United States effectively arbitrages and controls the global flow of oil. A world in which US‑aligned production in the Americas plus a discretionary capability to secure,or not secure, Hormuz places Washington at the centre of the hydrocarbon chessboard. For that strategic end, a rapid restoration of the old status quo would be counterproductive.
A quick, surgical “fix” of Hormuz would short‑circuit the dialectic. If Trump rapidly crushed Iran’s remaining coastal capabilities, swept the mines and escorted tankers back through the Strait, Europe and the UK would heave a sigh of relief and return to business as usual: underfunded militaries, maximalist green posturing and performative disdain for US power, all underwritten by that same power. The contradiction between their dependence and their posture would remain latent.
By declining to supply the synthesis on demand, and by explicitly telling London and Brussels to “go and take it” themselves, Trump forces a reckoning. European and British leaders must confront the fact that their energy systems, their industrial bases and their geopolitical sermons all rest on an American hard‑power foundation they neither finance nor politically respect. The longer the contradiction is allowed to unfold, the stronger the eventual synthesis can be: a new order in which access to secure flows, Hormuz, Venezuela and beyond, is explicitly conditional on real contributions, not assumed as a right.
In that sense, the delay in “taking” the Strait, and the challenge issued to US allies to do it themselves, is not indecision. It is the negative moment Hegel insisted was necessary for history to move. Only by withholding the old guarantee, and by saying so out loud to those who depended on it, can Trump hope to end the free ride.

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Friggin’ X.
I’m just casually scrolling my For You feed trying to get some trade ideas and charts for next week, monitor the situation in Iran, get some insight on potential earnings plays for this month.
And then SOMEHOW, the X algos decided to show me a picture of….
…Kristi Noem’s husband and his big ol titties.
NOW I CAN’T UNSEE IT.
This is’t fair. I didn’t ask for this!!!
/fml
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@FJ4Lo @MagnumKeith Cool looking buck knife, is that custom or something?
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@TheyTiltBak @MagnumKeith Big heavy N frame doesn't seem to have any issues. It's a tack driver. Similar to my Delta Elite.
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@FJ4Lo @MagnumKeith Ammo recommeded for 10mm wheelgun? Any encounters with crimp jump? Thanks.
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@CynicalPublius She couldn't even get Comey prosecuted. Absolute failure 👎
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Bondi is out?
I have been one of her biggest champions, as many of you know. In fact, this has been one of the biggest single points of disagreement I have with many of my followers.
The Epstein rollout was a disaster, I've never denied that.
But her success in the appellate courts and SCOTUS in moving forward the Trump agenda has been the best of any conservative AG in my lifetime, and I stand by that.
But apparently Trump wants her gone, and I will always defer to his decisions in these matters.
Godspeed, Pam Bondi. You stood in the fire when others stayed home. People have no idea how much bravery it takes to put yourself out there like that.
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Food for thought.
Markets again misread Trump’s Iran speech by taking him literally, not seriously. His “Stone Age” threats are leverage, not a base‑case plan. If credit markets truly believed him, the 10‑year Treasury yield would be well north of 4.5%; it sits closer to 4.37%. Objectives have essentially been achieved, so given the TDS saturating Wall Street and the media, last night’s emotional overreaction should surprise no one.

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Holy twitter 😂
Shane Cashman@ShaneCashman
Kristi Noem just found out she’s married to Mrs. Doubtfire.
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