Fishtown Capital

@TihoBrkan I'll take a look back, thank you.

@FishtownCap Definitely not P/E ratios. And definitely not EPS, which does not indicate economic value created. Wrote a lot on these topics over the months and years back.

We sold $META over a year ago during a record-breaking 20-plus day winning streak. Our conviction only strengthened recently when the company posted blockbuster earnings last quarter, only for the stock to totally disregard it. “If all the news is great and the stock is not acting well, GET THE HELL OUT, which is a pretty simple thing most analysts don't know.” — Stanley Druckenmiller We still believe the share price will disappoint investors for years to come after rising more than 8.5X from its lows in late 2022. We would become interested buyers again, but only closer to $350 per share (plus or minus).

Pessimism is certainly there right now but we're no where near as cheap.. but remember they hit a sentiment bottom PLUS the business (all of tech) wasn't performing great. I agree with @TihoBrkan that if business results show weakness, we could hit $500 very quickly.. $350 is a lot tho.

@TihoBrkan @FishtownCap Bought $META at $130-140 when euphoria hit zero. Two years of 'Facebook is dying' became 'Instagram is unstoppable.' Now: Threads failing, Reality Labs burning $4B/year. If history rhymes, pessimism deepest when catalyst is closest. What's your catalyst watch right now?

@TihoBrkan So what do you use to understand when the market gets to a silly price?

I don't track earnings per share and multiples. So I couldn't comment on that. But I know one thing: markets become euphoric, and then they become pessimistic. It's the ebb and flow of the machine and the nature of the beast. When we were buying $META below $150, no one would have believed it would reach such a low, but then it went even lower, to $90 and change by late 2022. "The beauty of stocks is they sell at silly prices from time to time — and that's how Charlie and I have gotten rich." — Warren Buffett

@bsg_cap Wild 2 day drawdown.. but low volumes as always.

Bought more ifos

@DurableCreators Don't forget $CVNA!

Don't forget to give the S&P500 committee a round of applause for adding this gem to the index (and at the very top, too).

@RyeNotBerben We're down 6% off ATH's and still up 18% from this time last year.

I'm getting the distinct impression that shorts have overstayed their welcome in this mkt...

@learnlearnfree @DeepIceValue I have no idea what that means.

@FishtownCap @DeepIceValue Did you adjust for geopolitical risk?

I guess we know now why $BRK.B was stacking $OXY and $CVX for years while the price was not amazing..

@Stlbeerman68 Agree and I've spoken directly with ET IR and told them exactly this!

@FishtownCap K-1 holds it back. If they converted to an Up-C, it would pop. I will keep holding

$ET Energy Transfer While everything NG is popping this is still $19. $9 billion in DCF on a $64 billion market cap, irreplaceable NA based assets that are just getting more valuable, investing heavily in natural gas. This should be $25.

@CousinGraig Agreed. This is way bigger than tariffs IMO.

Odd how market panicked quickly in face of tariffs. An action that could be unilaterally, quickly undone but was priced as structural phenomena. Today, the war may or may not be unilateral and certain damage cannot be immed undone, yet mkt pricing it as temporary.

@StoneHillWealth @DeepIceValue Still a garbage investment. Almost and could very easily have gone to 0 in 2020. Was trading 30 cents on the dollar at one point. The entire market has more that doubled since 2019, these have returned half that.

@FishtownCap @DeepIceValue Not the preferred

@DeepIceValue LOL

@FishtownCap You dont understand long term investing

@DeepIceValue "Lol" They're barely breakeven on it, and it's underperformed the broader market by 60% since they entered it, and it's underperformed $XLE by 50%. It was, and is, a bad investment.

@FishtownCap Lol

@aakashgupta Imagine actually believing that “late fees” caused Blockbusters failure, and not the technological shift to streaming.

Blockbuster made $800 million a year charging late fees. Customers hated it so much the company went bankrupt. Two indie developers just made a game where you charge those same late fees, and it launched with a 99% positive review score. The difference is one word: consent. Handing a late fee to an NPC is play. Getting charged $4 for returning Titanic two days late was punishment for enjoying a Friday night ritual you loved. The browse. The wall of new releases. The kid begging for candy at the counter. That experience was Blockbuster’s actual product. The late fee was a tax on it. In 2000, Netflix offered to sell itself to Blockbuster for $50 million. Blockbuster’s CEO laughed them out of the room. By September 2010, Blockbuster’s 9,094 stores were worth $24 million combined. Netflix is worth $400 billion today. The reason is the same reason this game works. Blockbuster’s management looked at the P&L and saw late fees as a revenue line. They never saw them as the compound interest on customer resentment. $800 million a year in recurring hostility. When Netflix offered the same movies with no punishment, the switch was instant. 84,300 employees. 9,094 locations. Gone. Meanwhile, two developers at Blood Pact Studios built the part Blockbuster accidentally threw away. The Friday night ritual, the shelving, the customer interactions, the tape rewinding. Simulation games now account for 9.76% of all Steam revenue. Job simulators alone have generated $1.36 billion lifetime. The shop sim is the single most predictable path to indie success on the platform. Retro Rewind hit #5 top seller on Steam on launch day with zero marketing budget. Blockbuster had $6 billion in annual revenue and couldn’t survive the thing two people just turned into a $16 game. The movie was never the product. The store was.

@Michigan_Value But it's so much faster to guess a number out of thin air! Again, nice job. I'm on board here now (smaller position because this is really not my wheelhouse.)

@FishtownCap LOL sorry, no DCF, and I don't model to fit guidance, I model to fit data

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@kingdomcapadv @shortbus_ace Of course not.. but I do think the wealth effect is real, I think it's unlikely the next few years in the market are as good as the last few.

@FishtownCap @shortbus_ace Are you suggesting there’s nothing left for the wealthy to consume?

if there was no oil shock right now, would you be worried about a consumer pullback? explain your answer in replies if you would be so generous

@kingdomcapadv @shortbus_ace What toys are left for the wealthy to buy? How will they feel if/when the market declines?

@shortbus_ace Fair, but also not worried about the wealthy continuing to spend