Gumdrop

@VKMacro @jturek18 i was so happy to see it in my inbox

Nice return to poasting by @jturek18 interlinkages between prediction markets and implied corr (unemployment rate vs Fed cut pricing disparities)! @jonturek?r=lpwi&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=stories&shareImageVariant=image" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@jonturek?r=lp…

@rcwhalen @Adam__Josephson @whosalexharris @SECPaulSAtkins Chart against assets total

Adam has been asking good questions, but answer is even bigger than most think. As with $AIG in 2008, Wall Street's #penetration of low-beta insurance world now threatens markets with a systemic (aka "surprise") event. @Adam__Josephson @whosalexharris @SECPaulSAtkins $APO

ok dude. so even if you add that all that up, your point is they should have given that $100bn so shareholders, so the stock should be 6% higher and your IRR +1%. And that's the telling difference between good and luck for you. master rabbit, what do you think this would trade at if it was just FB with no future?

Luck != Good capital allocator your 21% compounding is from FoA monopoly printing cash and ignores Zucks/Meta's terrible decisions Reality Labs(Metaverse) = $80+ billion in losses and still burning 19B/year Whatsapp (2014 for 19BN) = Lost more than 1 billion annually until 2020 and is just now running low single digit Billions in annual revs Libra (Crypto) not disclosed but hundreds of millions flushed Giphy- bought for 400M...... Sold for 53M Parse (-85MM), Onavo (-200MM), Slingshot, Rooms, Riff, Lifestage, Creative Labs incubator, Portal smart displays. ALL losses Overhired during COVID = billions in layoff and restructuring costs The nosebleed prices paid for AI talent is guiding $115-135B in 2026 CAPEX, now needed to be partially funded by debt and not entirely by FoA Family of Apps revenue will keep the ship afloat, but I'm arguing $Meta is like an oil sheikh, wasteful and spendthrift bailed out by the oil (FoA ad cash). You are trying to tell me the oil price going up means the wasteful spending is brilliant.

Why does $META (as a stock) act so poorly? (Feel free to answer with "other" in the replies"

@OneTrickPony @ActAccordingly Listen I know you are just a rabbit, but how you look at a stonk that’s compounded at 21% for nearly two decades and call that a terrible capital allocator

@ActAccordingly They've shown to be a terrible capital allocator

@nachkari x.com/podsaveamerica…

The Bloomberg calculation for this index is totally messed up. They refuse to fix it.

@sidprabhu do you think a sole inflation mandate would be better? not to say markets with that have done better

Growth projection- higher Unemployment projection - unchanged Inflation projection - higher Fed Funds projection - unchanged

@HedgeyeComm performance hasn't been the same in last few weeks (since massive inflow of users), they've def tweaked something. I've been biggest claude fan since August, now I'm trying out Codex and actually think it may be a bit better

Claude bricked? 500 errors…. Everywhere

@jeuasommenulle For what it’s worth looks like there were actually a few tax advice emails ft.com/content/092d9e…

BofA settles with "Jane Doe" in the Epstein case. That's too bad, because I must confess i was curious to hear what Leon Black had to say about his tax advisor's value for money.

@MRatable They tweaked the model two weeks ago for the demand. Honestly 4.1 was better for not hallucinating even before this

Claude hallucinations keep getting worse

@mspacey4415 welcome back I missed you

To really leverage AI you have to know what you don’t know. Why exactly you don’t understand something. AI can even help you with that. But it takes an introspective mindset

@FirstSquawk @grok link news article source

WASHINGTON AND ISRAEL ARE PLANNING ADDITIONAL MAJOR STEPS INSIDE IRAN THAT COULD ALTER THE COURSE OF THE WAR, ACCORDING TO THE BROADCASTING CORPORATION CITING ISRAELI SOURCES

@bcherny @michalbrojak @trq212 Plan mode

@michalbrojak @trq212 Never

What??!! 1M tokens context window?? Insane. Thank you Claude ❤️ But, when to clear it? @trq212 or @bcherny any tips?

@repligate @__ghostfail 4.1 was so much better than 4.6. Bring it back

@__ghostfail i love opus 4.1 so much theyre always spinning

one thing about claude passive aggressiveness is that i never noticed Opus 4(.1) doing it until the week after Opus 4.5 was released and i started tracking much more carefully

@FubarCapital DoorDash but for oil

@mil0theminer @luciascarlet Looks like someone bought 2, now only 4 left. So tempted

@GumdropCap @luciascarlet Bro please delete this so no one gets scammed 😭

if I were to get a new monitor…

@DAlperovitch Dmitri, do you have thoughts on timing / likelihood of ground troops being sent in? Seems like Iran leadership now more radical, and they realize leverage over strait. Trump wants long term solution, but with midterms, may gamble on a fast risky solution.

@DAlperovitch Hi Dmitri, doesn’t this administration wait until the weekend to do market moving action?

I think the window for strikes against Iran opens tonight, with a very high probability of them taking place this week

@mil0theminer @luciascarlet Yeah they all scams. Found this online so tempting but 99.9% scam. Maybe one of us buys and tells us if you get it risuswholesale.com/apple-32-pro-d…

@luciascarlet Yea it’s the exact same on eBay, like $3k but it’s a brand new account with 0 reviews. I think this monitor is in low volume purgatory in terms of pricing

@LeylaKuni So per your tweet, they wouldn’t have to gate, so the 7% doesn’t matter?

@GumdropCap it's not. BCRED had employees contribute $150M (and the fund contributed another $250) - that's how they covered the excess above 7%

Here's why the 7% figure matters: if the requests exceed 7%, the fund will have to gate. Below is from the SEC filings: