
SeekerOfTruth
4.5K posts

SeekerOfTruth
@Hope_Eterna
"And you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free" Christian, Son, Husband, Father of 3, Engineer, Woodworker, Gamer, Star Wars fan, Tesla Investor


The IRGC's decision to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz ranks among the most consequential miscalculations in the regime's history. Iran anticipated two outcomes from the Hormuz strategy: 1. A global economic shock severe enough to force Washington to back down 2. To use disruption in the Strait to fracture the alignment between Washington and its Gulf partners, demonstrating that American military operations imposed an unbearable cost on regional stability What the IRGC failed to account for was the weight of the political debt it had accumulated across the Arab world. The Gulf States reinforced the American posture directly, and the political dividend Tehran had assumed would follow from economic disruption never materialized. In the IRGC's misery there is Washington's opportunity. Properly leveraged, Trump's blockade could unlock a broader regional consolidation, @zriboua writes. Read in @TheFP: thefp.com/p/iran-needs-t…













I think Hormuz has broken Trump. We always say he's inconsistent and changes his mind. But this is different. I don't think he's ever been this all over the place on an issue in such a short period of time. "OPEN HORMUZ OR YOUR CIVILIZATION DIES." "We don't need Hormuz, it's Europe's problem." "Oh actually, we're probably going to have a deal with the Iranians to run it together." "It's great Hormuz is not open, we get to sell more oil!" "Actually, Hormuz is open! The media is lying again." When he's been inconsistent before, usually he cycles through different positions, at least showing some consistency for a short period of time. Here he's constantly saying contradictory things in the same breath, over and over again. I think he realizes he's stuck. He can let Iran have Hormuz and say it doesn't matter or lie about what happened. MAGA idiots may believe him, but he'll be a laughing stock to everyone else. Or he can pivot back to "DESTROY THEIR CIVILIZATION," send oil to $150, and hope it works. Either 1) more war, which wrecks the economy going into the midterms, or 2) total loss, and maybe the economy recovers if Iran allows enough traffic through, but this goes along with what is probably the worst strategic defeat in American history. Just terrible options all around.


















