Huba

53.9K posts

Huba banner
Huba

Huba

@Huba2222

Science, Technology, and Investment - Not Financial Advice - Do your own research. - @doginaldogsx

USA เข้าร่วม Kasım 2022
3.1K กำลังติดตาม5.3K ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
This is me. This is my doginal dog.
Huba tweet mediaHuba tweet media
English
35
3
104
3.5K
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
@barkmeta Good evening. Exciting day of taking ‘stuff’ to the dump. Late spring cleaning.
Huba tweet media
English
0
0
2
24
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
@0xEthan It’s not how it feels, it’s what you do about it. Pay your money and take your chances.
GIF
English
0
0
0
103
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
$MSTR at $135. Sure, why not😀
GIF
English
0
0
0
59
International Cyber Digest
International Cyber Digest@IntCyberDigest·
The sound alone is something out of a horror movie. These new type of drones are really unsettling.
English
315
876
8.5K
835K
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
@RaminNasibov evolved for hydrodynamics and not aerodynamics.
English
0
0
0
160
Ramin Nasibov
Ramin Nasibov@RaminNasibov·
I don't know why you need this information, but this is the aerodynamics of a beaver
Ramin Nasibov tweet media
English
718
10.1K
75.1K
2.1M
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
@0xReflection Without 9/11 the 2001 recession heading into the ultimate low might not have been so deep.
English
0
0
1
199
Reflection🪩
Reflection🪩@0xReflection·
Dot-com bubble is nothing compared to this
Reflection🪩 tweet media
Reflection🪩@0xReflection

🚨 THE LARGEST IPO IN HISTORY ISN'T A WIN It's the bell at the top! SpaceX is raising $75B . At a $1.75T valuation Three times bigger than previous record IPO Bigger than the GDP of most countries And every major index is racing to rewrite its rules to absorb it That's not coincidence! That's a synchronized push to force trillions in passive money into one listing At the most fragile setup for markets in two decades Let me walk you through the convergence: Index providers aren't quietly tweaking rules in the background. They're proposing wholesale rewrites RIGHT NOW: ➮ S&P Dow Jones is reviewing the profitability requirement that's stood since 2002. Up for waiver. ➮ Nasdaq is cutting seasoning windows from 90 trading days down to 15. ➮ FTSE Russell is going further. Down to 5. The S&P 500 public comment window closes May 28. Potential implementation? June 8. Four days before SpaceX trades Three of the most important benchmarks on Earth. Restructured in the same window. For the same listing. That's the setup! Now look at what happens next: When you force a $1.75 trillion stock into an index, the index doesn't print new money to buy it. It sells other names to make room. That means mechanical selling of NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN. The current leaders absorb a forced sell-pressure the moment SPCX enters. But that's just the warmup SpaceX is floating only about 5% of its shares. Everything else stays with insiders, early investors, employees. The lockup expires in two stages: ➮ 90 days post-IPO: early September ➮ 180 days post-IPO: early December Now look at where those dates land: September falls inside the worst statistical window in the entire 4-year cycle. May through October. 15 of the last 16 midterm election years went red in that window. September is the deep end of it. December lands right after the November midterm vote - when policy uncertainty resolves one way or another, and big money rotates fast. And remember: none of this is happening in a healthy market. This is landing on top of: ➮ A 30-year Treasury yield above 5%. Last time that level showed up was July 2007 (3 months before the market peak, 12 months before Lehman) ➮ A $2 trillion AI cloud backlog where over half of "demand" is OpenAI and Anthropic recycling investor money back to Microsoft, Google, Amazon. ➮ Equities at the most overvalued level in history. Not close to it. Actually there. So here's the sequence I see loading: June 12 - SPCX prints. Forced passive buying overwhelms reality. Late June - mechanical rebalancing starts selling everything else in Nasdaq 100. Early September - first lockup expires. Insiders sell into the artificially inflated bid. October - middle of the historically worst window for stocks in midterm years. Early December - second lockup expires. Bigger wave. Four catalysts. One direction This isn't a forecast. It's a calendar The setup couldn't be more loaded if it tried. So what do you actually do? You can't fight the IPO. SPCX will probably rip on day one - the passive bid is too mechanical to stop. But you can stop being long everything else. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from CAUTION to DANGER. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. Many people will wish they had followed me sooner

English
276
518
3.7K
893.4K
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
Groks analysis of trading this strategy with the DOW: The Benner (or Tritch/Benner) "Periods When to Make Money" chart is a 19th-century cyclical timing model from ~1875 (with extensions to the 2050s), not a precise mechanical trading system. It labels years into three phases based on historical commodity/stock price patterns: A (top peaks): Panic/crisis years (e.g., 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, 2035, 2053) — avoid or prepare for downturns. B (upper waves): Good times/high prices — sell stocks and high-valued assets. C (bottom troughs): Hard times/low prices — buy stocks/goods and hold until the next boom ("B" years), then unload. Hypothetical Performance Trading the Dow Against This StrategyBacktests of rules derived from the chart (buy/hold in C periods, sell/avoid in A/B or panic zones) show mixed results — often positive hit rates on avoiding some major crashes but significantly underperforming simple buy-and-hold over long periods due to missed strong up years, transaction costs, taxes, and imperfect timing. Claimed wins (from proponents): One backtest of a Tritch/Benner-style approach reportedly generated ~7,939% from 1872–2020 with a high hit rate on certain cycle segments. It aligned with some panics (e.g., 1929 era, 2000 dot-com, 2008) and buy zones. Reality from independent analyses: Over multi-decade periods (e.g., 1904–2023), a strategy following the chart's buy (C) / sell (B/A) signals turned a hypothetical $100 into ~$5,432 vs. ~$62,414 for buy-and-hold (a ~12x gap). Hit rates were decent (~80%+ positive in some buy-hold segments), but missing big up years (e.g., strong 1940s–50s or post-2010 runs) hurt compounding badly. Average returns in "favorable" periods were solid, but overall risk-adjusted and total returns lagged. Key historical examples (Dow context):1920s–1930s: Avoided or mitigated some 1929–32 crash pain in theory, but the Depression trough was deep and prolonged. Post-WWII to 1960s: Buy zones captured gains, but some "good times" sells would have you out during strong runs. 1990s–2000s: 1999 panic label preceded dot-com bust; 2007 B sell before 2008 crash — good calls. But re-entry timing and missed late-90s upside mattered. 2010s–2020s: 2019 "panic" label was off (market was strong pre-COVID dip); recent C/B zones (e.g., ~2023 buy) aligned with recovery, but volatility like 2022 hurt if strictly followed. Recent/near-term (per chart): The red circle around ~2026 in a B/"good times" zone suggests selling/high prices. Markets have been strong into 2026 (Dow near all-time highs ~50k+), so it might signal caution ahead of 2035 panic projection — but this is forward-looking and unproven. Why It Wouldn't Have Made You Rich (and Could Have Cost You)Markets trend up long-term: Dow has compounded ~7–10% annualized historically. Timing errors (being out during recovery rallies or big bull legs) compound negatively. Imperfect accuracy: Many "panics" didn't hit exactly as labeled (e.g., 1965, 2019), and strong growth occurred outside clean B periods. Practical issues: No clear entry/exit rules for fractions of years, dividends, or rebalancing. Real trading adds slippage, taxes, and opportunity cost. Survivorship/ hindsight bias: The chart looks "spooky" for big events it roughly caught, but ignores misses and the power of long-term holding. Bottom line: Following this strictly against the Dow would have protected against some drawdowns (decent for risk-averse timing fans) but lagged buy-and-hold substantially in total wealth creation over 100+ years. Modern evidence strongly favors time in the market over timing attempts for most people. The chart is a fascinating historical curiosity illustrating real cyclical tendencies (fear/greed, commodity influences, ~16–20 year panic patterns), but it's no crystal ball.
Trending Bitcoin@TrendingBitcoin

Bitcoin is still early 2026 boom is incoming 🚀

English
0
0
0
49
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
@Kalshi Traders wish for such things. Investors are unconcerned about short-term noise.
English
0
0
2
107
Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin to reach a low of $55,000
Kalshi tweet mediaKalshi tweet media
English
225
129
790
437.2K
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
My 1983 thesis was done on an early word processor (occupied it's own room) that our department luckily let me use during off hours. It required all figures to be hand drawn and Greek letters required stopping the print and changing the ball head for each font change. Needed all copies to be done on prescribed paper with a strict format and no errors nor corrections allowed.
English
0
0
4
1.1K
Anthony Bonato
Anthony Bonato@Anthony_Bonato·
"I hate LaTeX." Writing math before LaTeX:
Anthony Bonato tweet mediaAnthony Bonato tweet media
English
46
206
3.1K
243.2K
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
@AshCrypto Do higher prices now work for a long term DCA accumulation? 🤔
English
1
0
0
75
Ash Crypto
Ash Crypto@AshCrypto·
President Trump should be named pro-STOCK president rather than pro-CRYPTO. Prices since Trump took office: SP500: +28% RUSSELL: +36% NASDAQ: +40% APPLE: 42% NVIDIA: +101% GOOGLE: +117% DELL: +302% Bitcoin: -33% ETH: -47%
English
255
206
2.1K
84.9K
Cory B
Cory B@CoryBOnChain·
Afternoon legends! Who showed up with me today?
Cory B tweet media
English
16
0
22
651
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
Class never takes a day off Suit game strong Sunday vibes stronger SUIT IT UP SUNDAY @SUITio54 @doginaldogs
Huba tweet media
English
4
1
10
103
Huba
Huba@Huba2222·
The Solemnity of the Most Holy Trinity Reading 1 Exodus 34: 4b-6, 8-9 Early in the morning Moses went up Mount Sinai as the LORD had commanded him, taking along the two stone tablets. Having come down in a cloud, the LORD stood with Moses there and proclaimed his name, "LORD." Thus the LORD passed before him and cried out, "The LORD, the LORD, a merciful and gracious God, slow to anger and rich in kindness and fidelity." Moses at once bowed down to the ground in worship. Then he said, "If I find favor with you, O Lord, do come along in our company. This is indeed a stiff-necked people; yet pardon our wickedness and sins, and receive us as your own." Reading 2 2 Corinthians 13: 11-13 Brothers and sisters, rejoice.  Mend your ways, encourage one another, agree with one another, live in peace, and the God of love and peace will be with you. Greet one another with a holy kiss. All the holy ones greet you. The grace of the Lord Jesus Christ and the love of God and the fellowship of the Holy Spirit be with all of you. Gospel John 3: 16-18 God so loved the world that he gave his only Son, so that everyone who believes in him might not perish but might have eternal life. For God did not send his Son into the world to condemn the world, but that the world might be saved through him. Whoever believes in him will not be condemned, but whoever does not believe has already been condemned, because he has not believed in the name of the only Son of God.
Huba tweet media
English
1
0
3
23
Duck
Duck@Ducksonx·
Good morning ☀️🦆 wake up and choose to have a positive attitude
Duck tweet media
English
36
3
65
996