Idiosync Capital

@JonahLupton You should be happy about this 😄

$NBIS just closed the gap from the $27 billion $META deal which is just insane... goes to show what kind of market we're in.... right now you can buy $NBIS cheaper than when that deal was announced 😒

The $NBIS $4 billion raise terms are insanely bullish! 1. Fast close. The convertible note offering got UPSIZED from $3.75B to $4B. In this credit environment. Where everyone is terrified of lending to AI companies. That tells you one thing: institutions were fighting to get into this deal. 2. The terms are absurd. 1.25% and 2.625% interest rates. In a market where people are scared companies like OpenAI can't repay its debt. Nebius got those terms because the demand was THAT strong. 3. Minimal dilution. Conversion premiums of 55-57% over current price. Effective premiums at maturity: ~86-89%. Translation: shares only get issued if the stock nearly doubles. That's how confident both sides are. Just as a reminder: every single dollar is going into GPUs, data centers, and AI cloud buildout. This isn't survival debt. This is war chest money. Pure offense. $4 billion to expand their infrastructure at exactly the moment when AI compute demand is exploding. Jensen called it "the inference inflection point" at GTC. Smart money doesn't lie. They just told you where they think this is going. $NBIS

Something most DC bulls are not talking about - With Qatar helium production (~30% of global supply) now offline from conflict + Hormuz energy/logistics chaos: How hard will this hit 2026 AI datacenter CapEx plans? GPU/server prices spiking higher? Deliveries delayed? When do these supply constraints start impacting actual deployments & earnings? Views? #AI #DataCenters #SupplyChain #HeliumCrisis @dylan522p @SemiAnalysis_ @p_ferragu @daniel_koss @aleabitoreddit

@blondesnmoney @HalvioCapital Halvio pls respond

Good overview of SE Holdings 9478.T I wrote about it in my Q3 letter. The company is a buyback machine that started prior to the TSE reforms but ramped it up even more since.

@HedgingNapoleon @string_jumper @LeylaKuni Happy to see what’s inside if anyone can share. Definitely more productive than bashing the CLO structure.. and to @LeylaKuni point - will partly determine how this holds up when things get really shaky

@string_jumper @Idiosync_Cap @LeylaKuni And in other news, shall we discuss the underlying assets? Or just keep pushing the Cliffwater talking points?

by popular demand: an example of a CLO capital structure > Cliffwater's CCLFX holds $16M of the bottom tranche on the books In their defense, default rates are at 0% for upper tranches since 2010. Low single digits for mezzanine. How this holds up in a recession is tbd

@anders_aslund Past performance is not indicative of future performance. For those who will give it the chance, Dubai/AD will come back even stronger. This doomer narrative and parallelisms to the past just don’t work if you know who runs the UAE.

I lived in Kuwait 1977-78. It was the lively center of the Gulf, while Dubai, Abu Dhabi & Qatar were parochial outposts. In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Although the West liberated Kuwait in 1991, Kuwait has never come back. The same is now likely for Dubai, Abu Dhabi & Qatar.

If MM had 2x default rate than BSL in 2020, with the expansion of PC in recent years and (assumed) loosening of underwriting standards coming from pressure to deploy, 3x doesn't seem like a stretch.

That’s why people need to learn that it’s OK to go into unsexy stuff. There are countless industries for which this statement is true. Unfortunately schools don’t teach this. I still have MBA students reaching out asking how they can get into private equity (it’s ok to ask - just know where it is in the cycle, that will tell you if you can make a career out of it).

@MrFamilyOffice Can tell you that most talent is not leaving. They may be waiting it out in one of these hubs or home countries but will go back as soon as this is over.

If — and it’s a big if — capital and talent leaves Dubai for good who benefits Singapore Hong Kong Switzerland Miami A new island in the sun?

@dannycheng2022 @cantonmeow NBIS - thanks!

What stocks do you like Dr Cat @cantonmeow to create videos for my patreon this week? Remember, we don't cover meme stocks or laggards — only those showing strong whale momentum. We invest, but we never trade!

@HyperAICapital Should’ve bet on $NBIS instead. World class team, brilliant execution, sound balance sheet.

🚨 BILLIONAIRE DUMPS NEARLY 1 BILLION OF $CRWV Billionaire investor Philippe Laffont’s Coatue Management has exited a nearly $1 billion position in CoreWeave. The fund sold 6,724,615 shares, fully closing out its stake in CoreWeave. Coatue originally built the position around CoreWeave’s 2025 IPO, meaning the fund likely locked in significant gains.

In 2015, in a typical buyout PE deal, a sponsor only needed to generate 5% annual EBITDA growth to hit 2.5x MOIC over 5 years: - borrowing was cheap (50% leverage at 6-7% interest rate) - multiples were expanding The math today is A LOT harder: - borrowing costs are ~8-9%, and leverage is down to 30-40%. - add record-high purchase multiples (that are no longer expanding), and - it now takes much larger increases in EBITDA (10%–12%, according to Bain) to generate that 2.5x return over five years Great chart from Bain, all links here: accreditedinsight.com/p/k-shaped-pe-…

@Divergent7651 I noticed this too, between the Nicolai Tangen interview and this one there is a difference

Druckenmiller does not look well in that latest Morgan Stanley interview...

@NoAlphaLimits Check stats on drone failure rates. Almost half of them fail and don’t require interception. So the equation is not 275 for 275.

@kieranwgoodwin @JRS55533086 Only the largest CLO managers have captive funds and few of the smaller ones are supported by insurance parents. Managers below the top 15-20 can’t raise any captive funds in this market, and prior.

@JRS55533086 Have you looked at CLO equity prices recently?

So all the non traded BDCs own some Lev Loans aka BSLs for their “liquidity sleeve” .. They will sell these loans as redemptions soar then HY looks too tight which gets sold then IG. CREDIT IS CORRELATED

@typesfast No more underwriting edge, that’s why.

Can someone smarter than me explain why war risk insurance gets canceled when there’s a war?

@Sajwani And to think this is all defense (no offence)..

It was never thought the UAE would one day possess such a massive military might 🦾 Well done to our men and women in uniform 🇦🇪 Thank you for protecting me and millions of innocents in the UAE