Jesse Mazer

14.1K posts

Jesse Mazer

Jesse Mazer

@Lasermazer

เข้าร่วม Mart 2012
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@ArgonGruber @morallawwithin You don't think retrocausality entitles us to say that Omega putting 1 million in box B in the past is a "consequence" of me deciding to 1-box, and Omega leaving B empty is a "consequence" of me 2-boxing?
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argon
argon@ArgonGruber·
@Lasermazer @morallawwithin Without a theory of how time travel works, it’s unclear why we would believe that time travel prevents 2-boxing from dominating 1-boxing. Why would time travel change whether & which facts are consequences of other facts?
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@forces_at_work What does “unconscious as a social system” mean if not referring to psychology? Would anything short of fully planned production be unconscious in this sense?
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@Sacrifice_Isaac Peirce’s version of pragmatism has not evaporated and it also dispenses with anything not scientifically testable or mathematically provable in the infinite limit, just with a more holistic notion of what it means to test that doesn’t require any strict verification procedure
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Isaac the Sacrificial
Isaac the Sacrificial@Sacrifice_Isaac·
This is the naivete of the Logical Positivists, and why they inevitably evaporated from serious philosophical discourse. Some of them will claim, adamantly, with a little bit of cheerfulness and comedy, that “Metaphysics is Dead!” How so? Of old age? By some cruel murder? 2/9
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Isaac the Sacrificial
Isaac the Sacrificial@Sacrifice_Isaac·
The denial of metaphysics is still, of course, an engagement with metaphysics. Just as Nihilism, when it denies objective morality, is still participating within the field of ethics. 1/9
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@ArgonGruber @morallawwithin *If* you're correct that 2-boxing still dominates in case with time travel I'd say that's a case where choosing dominant strategy is irrational, though looking at definition there, why couldn't "consequence" of your decision include fact of how box was filled in the past?
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argon
argon@ArgonGruber·
@Lasermazer @morallawwithin True, the questions are distinct. The dominance principle might be false. I think it’s true. Do you think the dominance principle is false? Can you think of any examples where there are 2 moves, A & B, & A dominates B & A should not be chosen?
argon tweet media
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@ArgonGruber @morallawwithin Technical question of what strategy would weakly dominate is distinct from philosophical question of whether it is rational to always follow the strategy that weakly dominates, even in a case like this. Calling it “causal” DT is a misnomer if true retrocausality changes nothing!
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argon
argon@ArgonGruber·
@Lasermazer @morallawwithin Would 2-boxing weakly dominate 1-boxing even if Omega had a literal time machine? I think so. The mathematics of the relationships between 1-boxing & 2-boxing are analytic. It is analytically true, given the terms in which the problem is described, that 2-boxing dominates. Yes?
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@deepfates Many assume that you could tack on continual learning to a net that’s already been trained to abilities greater than or equal to current LLMs via supervised learning, will be interesting if that doesn’t work and you need unsupervised learning to start from baby-like state
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🎭@deepfates·
continual learning is a huge problem for alignment and kind of messes with everybody's business model and battle plan at the same time huh
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@boguswaves1 @the_autonomia Note part in first draft at marxists.org/archive/marx/w… where he says it is "Precisely because it is contemporaneous with capitalist production" that Russian commune might skip capitalism, and might not need "a long Western-style incubation of mechanical industry"
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@boguswaves1 @the_autonomia I think his argument was that the first society to achieve industrial technology has to go through capitalist stage (so would apply to Russia in alternate history where it was first), later societies can take advantage of more advanced tech on hand for diff transition
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𝕒𝕟𝕥𝕚-𝕙𝕦𝕞𝕒𝕟
Passage from the late Marx that shows the Progressivism that I think plagues his work: "They know that in order to work out their own emancipation, and along with it that higher form to which present society is irresistably tending by its own economical agencies, they will have
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@ArgonGruber @morallawwithin Since in this case we assume a fixed timeline, at the moment of your choice there is already a determinate truth about whether box B contains money or not, and in either scenario "box B empty" and "box B full" you will get more money if you 2-box
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@ArgonGruber @morallawwithin You can also get 1-boxing from EDT, I haven't seen any cases where I'm convinced it necessarily gives different recommendations from what FDT advocates would recommend. Would you 2-box even if you were a software entity and Omega might have run an earlier exact duplicate of you?
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argon
argon@ArgonGruber·
@morallawwithin 2-boxers unite! One issue I have with FDT is its uneasy relationship to Kolmgorov’s 2nd axiom, Normalization. There seems to be no good accounting of what the elementary elements are for FDT.
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@ankkala It'd depend on choice of reference frame, in general relativity no large frames are inertial but at scale of galaxy GR is well-approximated by "linearized gravity" which does have them, so this could be from the perspective of an inertial observer at rest relative to center
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kumikumi (Ankkala)
kumikumi (Ankkala)@ankkala·
"a hundred million years ago, there were dinosaurs on the other side of our galaxy" is a sentence that sounds made up until you realize it's true
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@rian_vlbt even infinitely complex mathematical determination would still not be truly free?
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@rian_vlbt closest I can come is idea that certain aspects of reality might have infinite contributing factors (perhaps whole of universe) so not predictable by computable mathematical rules (Leibniz would see such infinite determination as 'contingent' as I understand him), do you think
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𝖗𝖎𝖆𝖓 🌞ॐ࿗
Clarificação: eu não sou determinista. Eu não falei ali, mas eu defendo o livre-arbítrio libertário. O fato de eu defender o Princípio da Razão Suficiente e ter influência espinoziana (até citei o Della Rocca ali, espinoziano contemporâneo famoso) não me impede de discordar dele justamente nesse ponto. Pra mim, o Príncipio da Razão Suficiente não implica em fatalismo/determinismo, porque do fato de tudo ter uma razão suficiente não se segue que ela seja necessitante: algumas razões apenas inclinam (i.e, elas orientam ou expressam). Um artista escolhe o azul em vez do vermelho não por uma causa determinante que obriga, nem por aleatoriedade, mas porque sente que expressa melhor uma tonalidade emocional. Simplesmente ressoa. Faz sentido pra ele, porque funciona por intencionalidade expressiva no âmbito fenomenológico, não precisa ser algo mecânico (eu rejeito totalmente o mecanicismo, deveria ter colocado que também sou organicista; aceito causas mecânicas, mas nego que sejam exaustivas). Mas não deixa de funcionar como razão para explicar por qual motivo ele escolhe porque razões não são determinações (aqui eu largo Espinoza e abraço mais Leibniz mesmo), então o PSR não é violado.
𝖗𝖎𝖆𝖓 🌞ॐ࿗@rian_vlbt

Alguma das minhas posições filosóficas mais bem estabelecidas: 🟥 Deísmo/Teísmo -> não possuo fé no sentido abraâmico, que não se confunde com śraddhā no hinduísmo, e acredito em Deus por causa de razões ou argumentos filosóficos. Eu sigo algo muito próximo daquilo que Paul Draper (um ateísta por sinal) chama de “deísmo estético”, mas acredito que o uso de “deísmo” aí é deslocado, porque na verdade ainda se cumprem os requisitos para um “teísmo mínimo”, como Byerly (2023) bem coloca ao comentar Draper. I.e: não acredito em um Deus com revelação exclusiva (acredito em revelação ou revelações mas não no sentido exclusivista; mais sobre isso a seguir), nem em uma providência moralizante direta ou qualquer fé dogmática, mas mesmo assim acredito que há uma realidade que é divina, suprema, um fundamento último da ordem, da inteligibilidade e do valor. 🟥 Inclusivismo religioso hierárquico -> acredito que diferentes religiões, tradições e caminhos espirituais podem tatear ou participar de uma mesma verdade última, ainda que de modos desiguais/parciais ou simbolicamente/discursivamente distintos. Eu nego o relativismo, não acredito que todas as religiões são igualmente verdadeiras, igualmente profundas ou igualmente eficazes, mas também não significa exclusivismo, como se apenas uma tradição tivesse qualquer acesso real ao sagrado. Algumas tradições podem alcançar algumas finalidades soteriológicas reais (e.g: purificar a mente, conduzir a graus de verdade, virtude, contemplação ou libertação), mas ainda assim podem ser hierarquizadas conforme sua amplitude metafísica, a sua precisão doutrinal, profundidade contemplativa e efetividade espiritual pragmática. Algo próximo do modelo de Abhinavagupta: há muitos āgamas, caminhos e formas de acesso ao divino, mas eles não estão todos no mesmo nível, alguns são mais completos porque integram e superam os demais, oferecendo uma visão mais abrangente da realidade, da consciência e da libertação. 🟥 Idealismo metafísico/ontológico -> eu defendo que a realidade fundamental é ideal, mais especificamente, consciência irredutível. Isso não significa negar a realidade do mundo empírico, nem cair em solipsismo, mas afirmar que matéria/natureza, corpo e mente finita são modos, expressões ou aparências de uma realidade mais fundamental que é consciente, e não algo produzido por matéria inconsciente. 🟥 Realismo direto -> estamos conscientes diretamente de objetos enquanto tais, e não apenas de representações, estados internos, imagens mentais ou o que seja. A percepção pode envolver mediações cognitivas, fisiológicas e conceituais, mas isso não implica que o objeto imediato da consciência seja uma “representação” privada. Em condições normais, o mundo mesmo aparece para nós. 🟥 Intuicionismo/Racionalismo contemporâneo -> intuições, sejam elas morais, modais, matemáticas, epistêmicas etc., quer formem uma classe homogênea ou não, deixo isso em aberto, podem desempenhar um papel epistêmico justificatório. Elas não são infalíveis, incorrigíveis ou mágicas, mas fornecem justificação prima facie, sobretudo quando são claras, estáveis, refletidas e integradas a um quadro coerente de razões. 🟥 Realismo moral -> defendo a existência de fatos e verdades morais objetivos. Há pelo menos um conjunto de coisas que são realmente boas, más, corretas, incorretas, dignas, indignas, justas ou injustas, independentemente de preferência subjetiva, convenção social ou aprovação coletiva (não descarto um construtivismo local, mas ele é parasitário sob valores morais objetivos). 🟥 Objetivista moral -> como colorário, asserções morais podem ser verdadeiras ou falsas e são disputáveis racionalmente. Ou seja, quando alguém diz “torturar inocentes por prazer é errado”, isso não expressa apenas gosto pessoal, emoção ou costume cultural, mas uma afirmação com pretensão de verdade. 🟥 Particularismo moral -> não há um princípio que pode ser aplicado a toda situação como uma lei moral universal simples (+)...

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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@MaxFagin @somaranon I did mention option of "larger network on multiple bodies", are you suggesting there is no goal of ever being able to do all needed manufacturing for space colonists on some combination of bodies beyond Earth (including moon and asteroids along w Mars)?
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Max Fagin 🚀🔴🌐☄🌘
@Lasermazer @somaranon Nobody is trying to create a self-sufficient Mars. That's as stupid and unnecessary an idea as a self-sufficient nation, and not a good way to grow a civilization. We are trying to create a solar system economy.
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Max Fagin 🚀🔴🌐☄🌘
Around the office, we call this the Trillion Dollar Problem, because there is simultaneously: 1) Almost no immediate incentive to answer the question, beyond academic interest 2) Severe ethical obstacles to answering the question 3) Trillions of dollars riding on the answer
Space Koala@SpaceKoala

What annoys me about "no idea if 0.38g is enough" is that we don't know if 1g is too much, too little, or just enough. I mean, people with obesity wind up with denser bones, but that doesn't mean people should be fatter, because obesity also causes joint problems. Martians might have far few joint problems and sports related injuries.

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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@Andercot Apart from inelegance of additional variables which are impossible in principle to measure (and which behave in exotic ways like FTL causality), there may be basic problems with generalizing from nonrelativistic QM to relativistic field theory, see p 21 at philsci-archive.pitt.edu/15292/1/leeds_…
Jesse Mazer tweet media
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Andrew Côté
Andrew Côté@Andercot·
If you thought UFOs / Aliens were stigmatized in academic science, we should really sit down and talk about Bohmian Mechanics
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@Samuel_Gregson Not exactly but likely at least vaguely similar to pixels in that Planck units limit the number of distinct possible physical states that could exist in a given region of space, see my two comments below: x.com/Lasermazer/sta…
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer

@njordsier @martinmbauer It's also more complicated in that the number of possible physical states in a volume is likely an exponential where the exponent is proportional to area of the bounding surface in Planck units, not the volume in Planck units, but still have idea of discrete number of states

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Sam Gregson
Sam Gregson@Samuel_Gregson·
It is absolutely *not* the universe’s pixel length. This is simulation hypothesis nonsense like “the speed of light is the computer’s processing speed.” Please correct.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

The shortest distance ever discussed in science is the Planck length. It's the shortest distance that can be measured. Our universe's pixel size. So how small is it? A sphere with a Planck length diameter is to a human egg cell what a human egg is to the observable universe.

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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@MaxFagin @somaranon and self-sufficiency rather than full suite of consumer goods might be a lot of simplification possible, and there is a general trend towards increasing production efficiency (discussed in book Origins of Efficiency), would probably continue after full automation on Earth
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Jesse Mazer
Jesse Mazer@Lasermazer·
@MaxFagin @somaranon But if full automation of supply chains achieved on Earth first, at least this could hugely bring down the cost of constructing pieces of equipment that need to be taken to Mars along with the rockets to take them there. Also if initial goal is just necessities for survival
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