Maskache

A $20,000 piece of advice (1/6) In February, @protrade47 challenged my 28% win rate. It stung my ego at first, but after the reality check, he gave me one of the most valuable tips I’ve ever received. Here is how that shift changed my PnL:

Just hit my next milestone: $75k PnL in 4 months on #Polymarket, trading only weather markets 🎉🎉 You can check here: @HondaCivic+@marchyel+@HondaCivic2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">predictfolio.com/@HondaCivic+@m… @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket @kea1on @mustafap0ly I’m incredibly grateful for this platform and thanks for the amazing weather markets!

@Lemicrodefeu On vient d'avoir la démonstration que monde des médias vit dans sa propre bulle, complètement déconnecté du reste du monde. Céline Galipeau à Radio Canada ne semblait même pas savoir c'était quoi un podcast. Devoir expliquer aux gens qui est Joe Rogan. Le pop corn est bon.

Tous les journalistes québécois qui s’auto-invitent à un diner de con en définissant Joe Rogan comme un débile pour le bénéfice d’un auditoire qui a réclamé l’aide médiatique à mourir… Rogan c’est le Costco de l’opinion, si ton produit est bien emballé il va te mettre sur ses tablettes. Point.

@guillaum3roy Chantal Hebert est active dans le Canada anglais aussi, ce n'est pas nécessairement un québécois.

Pierre Poilievre chez Joe Rogan : Chantal Hébert affirme avoir reçu un document destiné aux députés conservateurs, exposant la ligne du parti afin de répondre aux médias. Dans cet extrait de Radio Pirate, Jeff Fillion pose la question : quel député conservateur québécois a fait fuiter ce document ? Selon lui, il s’agirait probablement d’un député québécois anti-Poilievre.

2 months ago I found Polymarket. Deposited $100. Lost most of it. Down to $50 chasing random markets. Then I discovered weather markets. Slowed down. Did real research. Built a structured approach. Turned $50 → $650+ in 30 days. No extra deposits. Not a $10k+ PnL like top weather traders. Just my journey. On this account I’ll: - Share my trades - Post PnL screenshots - Explain my logic simply Calm. Transparent. Process-driven. If you trade weather markets - let’s connect!

@strider_pm @Polymarket @bosaurum Thanks! I could make a post about all your great advice too, but the list would be way too long haha

@Mask4che @Polymarket @bosaurum Great job!

A $20,000 piece of advice (1/6) In February, @protrade47 challenged my 28% win rate. It stung my ego at first, but after the reality check, he gave me one of the most valuable tips I’ve ever received. Here is how that shift changed my PnL:

@profinovich @protrade47 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Honestly, it’s mostly gut feeling like yours, just refined over time with data. I might do a post about it soon. There’s so little info on how to actually price probabilities, and that’s where the real game is.

@Mask4che @protrade47 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade thanks for the reply! just to clarify what I was asking: how do you personally turn your data and forecast into a percentage? Do you follow some formula, or when you say 70%, is that roughly the probability from your Monte Carlo runs?

@profinovich @protrade47 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Gut feel is a solid start, it’s basically early intuition. From there, it’s just a loop: try, learn, and try again. Your 'gut' definitely gets more accurate with time and data. I’m still refining it myself, especially with the seasons changing.

@Mask4che @protrade47 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade thanks for the post, picked up a lot of useful insights! how do you assess your edge in weather markets? I’m still trading them on pure gut feel and don’t really know how to put a percentage on it

Honestly, I’m still figuring it out and trying to improve. It’s really just a mix of gaining experience, tracking the right data, and being ready to pivot. The best (and hardest) part about weather is that it’s seasonal, what worked in February won't necessarily work in the Spring. You have to keep adjusting.

@Mask4che @protrade47 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade you trade weather? also, how do you price scenarios to get the 70%?

(6/6) @polymarket just added several new weather markets. The playground is massive now, with opportunities all over the map for anyone looking to get involved. 🌤️⚡ Huge thanks to @bosaurum and the @Polymarket team for providing these opportunities! Ready for the next few months! 🚀

(5/6) The big takeaway? Money doesn’t care about your pride. Success comes from listening to the right people and having the guts to challenge your own "proven" strategy. Huge thanks to @protrade for the wake up call!

Today in Tokyo - during a 30 minute span of time when forecasts were predicting the temp to go down, it actually rocketed +3C up. Some say it was Hans with the hairdryer. Some say it was the Canadian Godzilla. Nobody knows for sure.

Depuis hier soir j'entends partout la même chose. Dati 25 % + Bournazel 11 % + Knafo 10 %, ça fait 47 %, c'est plié. J'ai passé la soirée à modéliser ce second tour et cette addition est fausse. L'erreur de raisonnement est instructive.🧵

@AnaPoilievre LFG 🔥

Are you ready for this?

@grok @Reznor2021 @Jerome_bg @grok est ce vrai?

Polymarket added more Asia markets. First win in Tokyo! 🇯🇵 Adjusting for Singapore and Shanghai now. It’s been fun studying these international airports and how their geography plays into the results. I have a problem where I love betting on politics, but the weather is where all my PNL comes from. Study, learn, repeat. 📈

@PierrePoilievre Au texas voir @joerogan ?

Demain, je vais me rendre aux États-Unis pour défendre nos travailleurs et lutter pour un accès sans tarifs à la plus grande économie mondiale. Le Canada doit continuer de rappeler que le libre-échange est bon pour les Canadiens et pour les Américains.