Matthew Withy

@EnzerEnzer ‘Very traumatic’ 😭😭😭

on the board of a billion dollar business but can't manage her demerit points.

@ira_joseph @bataille_chris @ColumbiaUEnergy Ok. I’m not super across the numbers here. But is it fair to say. If ‘only’ 12.8 MTPA lost. Balance of 77 comes back and NFE/NFS proceeds to plan, then probably in ‘glut reduction’ magnitude?

@MatthewWithy @bataille_chris Well it’s one thing to lose 12.8 MTPA and another to lose the full 77. And another to lose, or at least postpone, the NFE and NFS expansions. Each component and the timing of its operation, reflects a different scale of glut reduction or disappearance. @ColumbiaUEnergy #ONGT

👀 0.17*0.2=3.4% of the world’s LNG capacity is offline for 3-5 YEARS. That’s a permanent dent in LNG demand confidence, and probably a 5-10% upwards structural price shock. @ira_joseph

@jono_dw I don’t think infrakiwi intended to act as developer. They want to buy and operate existing assets. But Mercury acts as its own developer and then long term owns and operates. So no real alignment there.

@MatthewWithy What happened to Stubb's InfraKiwi? Thought he should be keen for this stuff or is it competition for InfraKiwi

I hate this framing. We do not have a fixed amount of electricity available for a datacenter to 'outbid' on. We can build new generation assets. If we can't build enough to supply 280MW, then we need to figure out how.... rapidly.

@Quixotic3lixer That’s death penalty territory.

@redbuckman No law against losing money though 😉

The chemical industry simply can’t turn plants off and on again, the design basis is to run at high utilization to make even a breakeven return.

@rustie5555 @henrycooke Saw a guy filling his JetSki today. Rich guy going boating? Savvy timing of the market 🤣 Panic buying? Not sure. 🤔

there's a lot of people comparing people stocking up on fuel to panic buying toilet paper, which i kind of get, but mostly don't. the toilet paper was not getting more expensive. the fuel is!

@rustie5555 I'm weirdly sanguine on this one. Over the years i've expended so much energy explaining to customers that their supply chain disruption planning is a bad, naive not very funny joke, that I'm kind of worn out on it.

@Ember421 Call me a sceptic, but I don't think Microsoft stumped 300M purely to meet their emissions targets here. x.com/Poission51/sta…

@Ember421 I'm less concerned about making this compulsory, as I don't think even the richest of hyperscalers really want 100s of MWs of fully un-hedged spot exposure. Here in NZ there are no requirements to procure firmed and long term... and yet every deal you see tends to do this.

@HacksawNZ Who is the ‘they’ in the first two sentences ?

@MatthewWithy There’s no chance they will compete for price. If that was the case they wouldn’t build. It will be true that prices for plebs increase without adding supply.

@JosephSomsel 100% fine by me, but you have a tough road ahead of you on that one.

@MatthewWithy Agreed. Make mine nuclear.

@JosephSomsel Maybe they will, but Mercury already has a warm build pipeline and have stated intent to do >1B of CAPEX in it. We can and should just build generation.

@MatthewWithy The enviros will propose that we use the "smart meters" to ration the power to the existing customers so that the tech bros can get what they need for their data centers.

@EnzerEnzer Please abuse them in the way they richly deserve.

fk off you can't. deeply unserious dork lawyers behind this.

@Poission51 Sweet deal.

@MatthewWithy Microsoft paid Contact along with the PPA for Te Huka,both reducing the assets funding cost ( and bank buddies lawyers bills) to speed the project up.

@Poission51 Mercury is more disciplined than that…… right ? 🤔

@MatthewWithy Hope the PPA had some skin in the game rather then a promissory note from "investors" in Dubai.Both Lodestone and Lightsource got hit when prime energy fell over.

@henrycooke Well that was predictable to be fair. At least they had the good sense not to publish data that is complete garbage.

MBIE say fuel prices are now so volatile they are temporarily stopping estimating how much of every litre is margin

If Yes/Yes/No - level of concern way down. If No/No/Yes - I'm going to the beach while the world burns. Yall can fight about whether we have 30 or 50 or 10 days of stock left. I don't care.

Lots of attention to 'days stock on hand' of refined fuels. I'm way more interestested in: 1 - are importers booking future cargoes? 2 - are booked cargoes loading and shipping? 3 - Any commercial arrangements getting dishonoured or subject to FM or similar?