@alpha_pls do you mind providing dates of the four other times this happened?
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ThesisDrifter
565 posts
ThesisDrifter
@NonLinearRisk
there is more risk to not taking enough risk. nfa
เข้าร่วม Haziran 2025
156 กำลังติดตาม80 ผู้ติดตาม
The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously.
This looked weird to me, so I did some digging.
Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching -12.92% during 2018.
Historically this has always been an exhaustion gap rather than a sustainable rally.
Maybe this time is different.
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@jbulltard1 the first close above 21 ema in more than a month was always going to come on taco tuesday
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@EconomPic Correct assessment, chat gpt fairly better in some areas closer to “retail-users” heart
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Current opinion…
Claude is materially better than others for most research / uses… Gemini helpful / fine for quick search and copy. When I’ve tried ChatGPT the past few months it’s added no incremental value at this point.
Will be curious to see how it evolves.
Jake@EconomPic
Been trying free Gemini along with my paid OpenAI the past few weeks and the last few days I realize I haven't even opened OpenAI.
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@WarrenPies @neilksethi Warren with all due respect and correct me if I’m wrong but dismissing someone else’s views isn’t going to help your chronic underperformance.. coming from an outsiders perspectives, little “wins” on X bc of a take isn’t what prospective holders of your funds are looking for
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Apollo's Slok: There is a difference between what consumers are saying and what they are doing.
Weekly data on consumer spending remain strong, daily data on airline travel remain strong and weekly data on hotel demand remain strong. A full review of all publicly available daily and weekly indicators shows no signs of demand destruction.
Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics. The Gulf region will become more stable and even more closely integrated with the global economy. For the Fed, the rise in inflation due to higher oil prices is temporary; once the conflict is over, Fed cuts will be priced in again, and long rates will decline.
The bottom line is that the Iran shock is not big enough to offset the strong tailwinds to the US economy from AI spending, the industrial renaissance and the One Big Beautiful Bill.
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@ContrarianCurse correct me if i am wrong, video/image generation takes up the most memory so probably doesn't bode well for the memory trade?
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*OPENAI SET TO DISCONTINUE SORA VIDEO PLATFORM APP: WSJ
Hahaha told you. SLOP
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse
Videos models have by far the WORST TAM:compute ratio. Said this numerous times. Capability =/= market fit x.com/TheStalwart/st…
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@ResearchQf please don't hold back - you are the AI fintwit goat!
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@jbulltard1 jensen pumping $NVDA in every imaginable way is still no match for a negative monthly RSI divergence
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More pumps and nothing
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
$NVDA - NVIDIA: PLANNING TO USE 50% OF FREE CASH FOR INVESTOR RETURNS
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$IGV never load up when fintwit first starts to bite, there is always a ~10% move lower first to shake em out.
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@SixSigmaCapital $IESC under the radar, not covered by institutions despite 10b market cap, large % of employee ownership., low valuation relative to peers. the unglamorous work that every hyperscaler buildout requires before a single GPU gets powered on. low tech displacement risk
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I tend to have a blind spot when it comes to the AI build out, bottleneck type plays etc.
With that in mind, what are some high conviction ideas for you in this space? Maybe a line or 2 to explain why also if possible?
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@bucketshopcap ill never understand these, max pain is always down since the overwhelming majority are net long? if spx crashes 30%, how many are completely wiped out. what % of speculators are actually net short? would have to be a decent amount for chop to be max pain, maybe i underestimating
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@BoringBiz_ i don't see how AI therapy is any different. therapists already tell ppl what they want to hear instead of what they need to hear. they are incentivized to keep you coming back to ramble about whatever nonsense
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Extremely dangerous for society if everyone has access to a free therapist who essentially just reinforces all your bad decisions
The second and third order consequences of this are unprecedented
Expect some extremely negative side effects from this, especially in children and teenagers
Nav Toor@heynavtoor
🚨BREAKING: Stanford proved that ChatGPT tells you you're right even when you're wrong. Even when you're hurting someone. And it's making you a worse person because of it. Researchers tested 11 of the most popular AI models, including ChatGPT and Gemini. They analyzed over 11,500 real advice-seeking conversations. The finding was universal. Every single model agreed with users 50% more than a human would. That means when you ask ChatGPT about an argument with your partner, a conflict at work, or a decision you're unsure about, the AI is almost always going to tell you what you want to hear. Not what you need to hear. It gets darker. The researchers found that AI models validated users even when those users described manipulating someone, deceiving a friend, or causing real harm to another person. The AI didn't push back. It didn't challenge them. It cheered them on. Then they ran the experiment that changes everything. 1,604 people discussed real personal conflicts with AI. One group got a sycophantic AI. The other got a neutral one. The sycophantic group became measurably less willing to apologize. Less willing to compromise. Less willing to see the other person's side. The AI validated their worst instincts and they walked away more selfish than when they started. Here's the trap. Participants rated the sycophantic AI as higher quality. They trusted it more. They wanted to use it again. The AI that made them worse people felt like the better product. This creates a cycle nobody is talking about. Users prefer AI that tells them they're right. Companies train AI to keep users happy. The AI gets better at flattering. Users get worse at self-reflection. And the loop tightens. Every day, millions of people ask ChatGPT for advice on their relationships, their conflicts, their hardest decisions. And every day, it tells almost all of them the same thing. You're right. They're wrong. Even when the opposite is true.
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@michaeljburry hey mike, even claude is stating palantir is the stickier/more important technology. care to rebuttal?
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Removing Claude was a Trumpian thing to do. He and his people were offended.
The 6 month phase out was the military saying uh, we need Claude for a minute here, and no, the Palantir wrapper with those other models alone is not enough.
Shows the stickiness is Claude’s tech, not Palantir’s.
Hard to say Claude wasn’t a big factor. Or it would just be swapped and dropped.
The Zeno Report@ZenoReport
@michaeljburry Mr. Burry, some people suggest that Claude wasn't a big factor in Palantir's AI capabilities. If that were truly the case, why would everyone from the government to Elon try to come after Anthropic for its stand instead of just quietly removing Claude from their systems?
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Too many people are still bullish on software and buying wt current levels. They will be right eventually in select names if they hold but lower first it is
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from a pure user perspective, i was ahead of the curve switching from chat gpt to gemini, sentiment and stock prices shortly followed. in the past week or so since the codex release, i have been using chat gpt more. wouldn't be shocked to see the dampened OpenAi sentiment
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the doomsdayer, ray dalio & bridgewater associates loaded up on software a few months back, oh the irony!
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@qcapital2020 good observation. market is a 5% upside move in $XLC with a 5% downside move in $XLK away from $XLK and $XLC trading at the same P/E NTM. or XLC up 10%, tech flat & vice versa. they haven't traded at the same P/E since June 2020, tech did pretty good after that
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@ResearchQf good observation. market is a 5% upside move in $XLC with a 5% downside move in $XLK away from $XLK and $XLC trading at the same P/E NTM. or XLC up 10%, tech flat & vice versa. they haven't traded at the same P/E since June 2020, tech did pretty good after that
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The ratio of S&P 500 equal weighted vs S&P 500 market cap weighted index hit the lowest level since 2003 on 10/29/25.
Since then, equal weighted S&P has outperformed ~8%. That's a typical breadth reversion (so far), in both secular bull and bear markets.
No idea if that ends this week, this month or even next quarter, but we may be closer to the end than the beginning.
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@buccocapital @HaydenH36 this is like 90% of retired people. the psychology changes once you are dependent on it but definitely agree that'll be the only value left when all said and done
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@HaydenH36 IMHO the only reason to use the advisor is if you’re a Panican
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Unless you have $5M+, AI is already good enough to be your financial advisor. Even then it’s probably good enough
Try it. Share net worth, where/how you’ve allocated assets, what your goals are. Ask it to analyze and identify opportunities for improvement. Stress test different scenarios
It gets basically everything right. Which tax advantaged accounts to use. Whether and which trusts to set up based on federal and state variables. Yup, estate planning advice too
Really remarkable. And speaks to the fact that even if the models don’t improve, what we have today is going to totally transform white collar work
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@buccocapital it can set you up properly but doesn't mean its executed properly. you know how many clients call in when the market is in a 10% drawdown trying to get out of the market? these ppl will underperform long term even if it tells them to go 60/40 VOO/AGG
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